TTP Jumps Notes: 12/02/17 (complete)

All qualifiers + ratings pointers…+ NOTES + VW PU LTO micro…

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

none.

Geegeez Speed

2.50 Exet – Eamon An Cnoic

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

EXETER

2.50

Red Sherlock (hncp + micro age+ runs 90 days) 16/1

Virtuel D’oudon (hncp + micro age + runs 90 days) 16/1

Eamon An Cnoic (hncp h) 9/2

Lady of Longstone (hncp h + micro age) 40/1

3.20

As De Fer (all hncps) 7/1

Katenko (micro runs this season) 16/1

 

SEDGEFIELD

3.40 – Alchemix (hncp c + micro class) 11/1

4.40 – Agent Louise (micro distance) 16/1

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Where to start…

Sedgefield maybe… I have to back both of those as they are doing enough different for me- when a horse has run a poor race I like to see some sort of change/a possible excuse… Alchimix is only having his 7th chase start and two runs ago over 19f he ran his best race. Dropped in trip the last day he didn’t run well, outpaced at times. I have a concern over the going, more an unknown, but the move back up in trip is of most interest, as is the drop in class, and the fact that Brooke stays on- I wonder if he will try one of his ‘catch me if you can’ rides- that could be fun to watch.

Agent Louise went lame the last day apparently but was running an ok race up to that point- why do I want to play here- well she is 16s, 14s, she steps back up in trip and looks a dour stayer, and the cheekpieces return- which could be a sign that they mean business. Of course there may be problems and a poor run will result but more than happy to take a chance at those odds.

Exeter…

2.50 – Well who knows what Pipe is a planning and a plotting in this qualifier. I can’t have Eamon An Cnoic at that price personally, simply because of the massive step up in trip – which may be ideal, but at around 4s, even though he is a RP horse, not for me. Lady of Longstone looks up against it… 0/5,1p heavy/soft in handicaps, 0/11,2p when not running on flat tracks. But the CP are back on and is 40/1. But, there are many in here with more attractive looking profiles- maybe a BFSP £2 ‘just in case job’- you know the sort!

The other two look of interest in the 16/1+ range. The market may guide for both but Pipe can ready them after long breaks and both have won after 365+ days off before. I think I will have to play them. Second guessing Pipe always dangerous but reasons why you wouldn’t be shocked if either went close,and at least we are getting a price…

Katenko… ah. What to do with him. I will have to play him as a system bet I think- his mark is plummeting and one day Venetia may find the key again, and he will decimate a Veteran’s chase. This is only his 14th chase start and nothing has gone right in recent starts. They keep persevering which can only mean he is showing something/they believe he will do so again on the track one day.

I had a look at some stats for her just now…a micro to keep an eye on.. VW, handicap chases Soft/Heavy, returned to track 181+ days ago, and PU on that run… on next start, 13/71,27p, +48 SP, +65 BFSP, since 2003…  since 2013… 9/43, 17 places… +45 BFSP, AE 1.62

On that basis alone I may have to play him!

 

So, an interesting day. Weekends continue to be good to us. Now I have the spreadsheets and am doing a proper job in terms of results recording, it will be interesting to analyse weekends after the season has ended. Not sure if any logic there but will be worth a look.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

none.

**

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

4 Responses

  1. Well, Red Sherlock looked the right one, to me, 250, fresh and a stamina trip on soft with further progress still possible.
    I bottled Katenko but your micro, Josh, gives an entirely different slant to its chance – I’ve missed the big prices now 🙁 I’ve backed Harry Topper with CD liking and Bailey back to form.
    Two in Ireland took my fancy:-
    200 Dandridge – hurdle mark unexploited
    300 Bacardys – new trip to suit latent stamina

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