TTP Jumps Notes: SAT 11/02/17 (complete)

All qualifiers + all ratings pointers. (+ Betfair hurdle pointers) + Notes

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

***

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

4.35 Uttox – Big Meadow 

3.35 Newb – Ballyandy W 4/1

Top 3

3.30 Uttox – Poppy Kay W 5/2

4.35 Uttox – Big Meadow

1.50 Newb – Scotchtown 

 

Geegeez Speed 

Top Rated

3.30 Uttox – Poppy Kay W 5/2

Top 3

4.35 Uttox – Big Meadow

1.50 Newb – Scotchtown

3.50 War – Catching On W 12/1>15/2

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

UTTOXETER

3.30 – Poppy Kay (micro class) 5/2 14,30 W 5/2

4.35 –

Big Meadow (hncp h) 11/8

Midnight Tune (hncp h + micro age) 11/2 14,30

 

NEWBURY

1.50 – Scotchtown (hncp h) 7/2

3.35

Boite (all hncps + hncp h) 33/1

Ballyhill (hncp h) 33/1

Ballyandy (hncp h) 4/1 W 4/1>3/1

Hargam (micro age) 50/1

Zubayr (micro – runs this season) 12/1 14,30

Movewiththetimes (micro – runs this season) 6/1 14,30

 

WARWICK

3.50 – Catching On (all hncps + hncp h + micro class) 12/1 W 12/1>15/2

4.55 – Full (micro – hncp hurdle debut) 6/4

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Well this 10/1+ losing run is starting to get a tad painful, esp if like me, you may have started following those selections more systematically ‘post spreadsheet’, around the start of Feb. The odd second place but we could do with a winner. And are due one. Thankfully in this range it won’t take many to get back into the profit…

I will start with Catching On who looks worth a go. He was 16s last night, 12s generally this morning, so some positive there. All conditions are fine and he stays well. His mark is plummeting. He gets a first time tongue tie, a drop in class and in the last 14 days 45% of Jonjo’s have been winning or placing- well, only 1/25 has won, but plenty have been running better and I don’t think that is a level of ‘place’ consistency we have been accustomed to. At his best he could go close here so we shall see in what looks an open enough race with everything having a question or two.

The other big priced ones are in the  big one, the Betfair Hurdle… which looks a head scratcher. Ballyandy looks to have an obvious chance from his mark – a strongly run 2m here in a slog could be ideal- but 4s seems short enough. Certainly the most likely winner to my eye. Interesting that Sam rides when I assume he maybe could have ridden Zubayr and Nicholls would have given him permission to do so. I suppose from those that remain Boite and Zubayr looks the most interesting of the bigger priced ones. Famous last words but Hargam and Ballyhill look up against it, but you never know.

Certainly Catching On looks the most likely big priced winner to end the drought, but maybe one of the Betfair biggies will surprise.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Nothing else to add today, bar…

Betfair Hurdle– stats/trends/pointers of interest…

18 year trends…

  • 18/18 Top 9 LTO
  • 18/18 11-7 or less (exc claims)
  • 18/18 0-1 win only at distance, 16f
  • 15/18 Top 3 LTO
  • 17/18 Age 5-7
  • 14/18 Age 5-6
  • 15/18 Top 7 in market 

10 year stats

  • 10/10 age 5+6
  • 9/10 Top 3 LTO
  • 10/10 3-10 hurdles runs
  • 10/10 0-6 handicap hurdle runs (5/32,11p, +41 SP, 0 handicap hurdle runs) 
  • 10/10 0-1 handicap hurdle wins
  • 10/10 2-6 places (inc wins) in hurdles
  • 10/10 Top 2 at least once on last 3 starts 
  • 6/10 carried 10-6 to 10-10
    • 10-5 or less : 1/55,7p
    • Top weight: 0/11,1p (inc joints) (exc claims) 
    • 4th to 10th in weights (inc joints) : 0/71,12p 

**

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

13 Responses

  1. For interest…Betfair Hurdle .. I think those stats leave 4… … William H Bounty (8/1), Movie With The Times (11/2), Ballyandy (9/2) and Beltor (20/1). Those final two hit the 10 year ‘position in the weights’ stats also (4th to 10th in weights 0/71,12p last 10 years, for interest) One, maybe two, of those stand out at the prices.

    Those that have have yet to run in a handicap hurdle are 5/32,11p, +41 SP over the last 10 years, which is an interesting ‘race micro’ in itself. Qualifiers are Movewiththetimes, Ballyandy and Ballyhill I believe.

  2. Josh
    SAT is the 11th feb not 10th. I had to look at the paper to see which was which. When you are retired every day is the same. Lol.

  3. Catching On gets us back on the winning trail. 16s ew.
    I have Poppy Kay single doubled with Big Meadow???? bottled it putting Catching On in a Trixie and Ballyhandy in a Yankee. next time ??

    Good to see you back Josh.

    Oh as for the shortlist.
    Give us the shortlist then you can pick your tips from that and we can choose if we like your tips or just back them all. Don’t hold back on your shortlist.
    Your short list for betfair hurdle was good as Ballyhandy stood out with your TTP and HRB that persuaded me to go for it.

    Mike

    1. Ah good to see you got the 16s on Catching On, declared at 12s as was generally available this morning, but hopefully you were not the only one. Ah multiples always looks good in hindsight when a few go in, such an approach would have lost you a fair bit in last couple of weeks!

      Big race stats- when I take that approach that is what i usually do- a shortlist agaist the ‘winning profile’ and then any tips from there. That will be the approach for the festival etc.

  4. Catching on a nice winner Josh…..I’d already picked my selections for the hurdle…so missed Ballyandy…..and Poppy was short price..before I left the house….
    Wasn’t on the other biggy either Josh. Not like me. Duh

    Still a nice winner cheers mate.

    1. Cheers Tony… BallyAndy was arguably short at 4s in a race like that for me personally,(others may have concluded that was a decent price) i didnt back him but had some nibbles on the bigger priced ones but had a good go at Catching On.. there were no other biggies were there?? what did I miss.. he is the only one.

    1. Cheers Steve, they needed it in truth! Been a tough couple of weeks but that will happen with the ‘long shot’ approach. Good to see a few winners scattered around.

  5. very nice day Josh, suffered a bit on prices but still managed to beat SP in most cases
    all BF
    ballyandy 5.8
    poppy kay 4.0
    catching on 9.05
    rock on rocky 9.8
    lunar flow 22.0
    72 pts up on day, cheers

    1. Well that’s what we like to read, good use of the blog contents! Well done. Still smarting from not tipping lunar flow, and having looked at my note pad I am still smarting- red penned rings around two horses. Idiot sometimes but glad you had a good day! Hopefully makes up for any recent losses.

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