TTP Jumps Notes: 08/02/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

4.30 Carl – Alfie Spinner UP 7/2>9/2

Top 3

3.55 Carl – Oishin

4.30 Carl – Rigadin De Beauchene / Russe Blanc

Geegeez Gold

Top Rated

none.

Top 3

3.55 Carl – Oishin

4.30 Carl – Rigadin De Beauchene 

2.20 Carl – Freddies Portrait (Bonus) WON 9/4 > 7/4

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

CARLISLE

3.55 – Oishin (all hncps) 11/1

4.30

Hester Flemen (all hncps + micro runs this season) 11/2 PU

Rigadin De Beauchene (hncp chase) 9/1 UP 10/1

Alfie Spinner (micro going SOFT) 14 7/2 UP 9/2

Russee Blanc (micro going SOFT)  14 12/1 2nd 9/1

LUDLOW

2.40

Twentytwostaken (all hncps) 12/1 UP

3.10

Gone Too Far (all hncps) 25/1 UP

Aerlite Supreme (micro TJC) 12/1 UP

BONUS

2.20 Carl- Freddies Portrait 9/4 WON 9/4 > 7/4

3.20 Carl – Mahler Lad 14/1 UP

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3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Well based on generally available morning prices there are 6 in the 10/1+ range,if that is your adopted approach, 2 in the ratings pointers- and I suspect Rigadin D B may go off 11.00 + BFSP also. With any luck one of them can end this current drought.

Oishin and Mahler Lad are unexposed and based on their profiles are hard to leave with confidence. The former has a short priced one to take on who could have any amount in hand, but the quick return a question,and more so the heavy ground. Unknowns for that fav so you never know. He won LTO and is entitled to also be open to improvement. McCains seems out of sorts but has had a break and is lightly raced, gets first time cheekpieces also.

The Pipe horses seem a bit weak but Twentwostaken returns to hurdles, gets a tongue tie on first time,has had a break, and relishes soft. 3/9,4p over hurdles and a few of those have been highly tried. Stamina is an unknown but she has won over 17f at Exeter in the mud, which indicates that she is worth a go around this easier track over 21f. She may not be fit and may not stay but I big run wouldn’t shock you. Gone Too Far is a big price also. His mark is dropping and he drops in trip which seems to be in his favour. Tom Scu takes over also. The soft ground is the concern- but it is more an unknown as he has never really raced on it very much,although without doubt he looks like he wants it good+. He does have some serious questions now though and you would like to see some market support. But, on his 3rd run for Pipe, you never know.

Aerlite Supreme’s mark has dropped 6lb in rather quick time and more importantly I think, drops in class. He ran well 4 starts ago in a C3 and has been in c2s since, also dropping 4lb from that run. He doesn’t like winning very often and has yet to do so for Williams, but enough placed efforts to make you think if he bounced back to his best he would be thereabouts.

That then leaves one, possibly, two, old boys in the 4.30. I have my doubts over both RDB and Russe Blanc- the latter would have a chance if finding his best and some sort of case can be made, as it can for RDB I suppose. I am conscious to leave anything in the 10/1+ range as I know I will talk myself out of winners, as I have done in the past. At their best both of those could win that race. Maybe with those I am not as confident on I should be having 1/2 points on, with full points on those I like more. So, using some subjective judgement while ensuring I get a return if/when I make a howler.

4.Any general messages/updates etc

nothing today.

5. Hunter Chase – Live Test 

Jockeys (33/1<)

4.15 Ludlow – Moscow Chance UP/ Old Pride Fell

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KEY:(applicable across the blog) 

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

NOTE: In the ratings pointers above, BOLD indicates a ‘double qualifier,against both ratings’ in RED is a ‘double top rated qualifier- they are 3/4 so far…) (no such qualifiers today)