Warwick Classic Chase: Stats&Trends

Some stats/trends/pointers for Warwick’s big chase…

A look at the Warwick Classic Chase this week.

As always use these stats/trends as a guide if you wish. There are some interesting stats below. I will pull together a ‘profile’ that stands out to me to try and find a working shortlist, and probably go from there.

These stats/trends have been found using HorseRaceBase…

NOTE:

There is an old (around a year ago) post listing my stats/trends checklist: HERE>>>

There is also an ‘over the shoulder’ VIDEO (Video1) of how I use HRB to find these stats/trends.

You can watch that and other such HRB videos HERE>>>

Enjoy…

***

Warwick Classic Chase

This became a G3 handicap from 2005, so I will focus on the 10 renewals since then.

139 runners, 10 winners, 31 placed horses

 

CHECKLIST

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • 6/10 Top 2 LTO
    • 6/53,12 p
    • Fell/PU: 2/28,7p

Horse Age

  • Not much.
    • 11yo: 1/19,3p
    • 12+ : 0/13,1p

Days Since Run

  • 10/10 ran within last 45 days
    • 6-10: 0/8,1p
    • 46 days+ : 0/18,4p

Horse Weight (exc claim)

  • 10-2 or less: 0/27,4p
  • 11-8+ : 1/21,4p
    • 11-12: 1/12,4p
  • 6/10 carried 10-6-11-1 (6/52,13p)

 

Horse Official Rating

  • Nothing much.

 

Season Runs

  • 9/10 had 1-3 runs this season
    • 8/10 had 2/3 (8/75,19p)
    • 4+ runs: 1/38, 7p

 

Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Over

  • Those that had WON over 3m3f (27f+) or further:
    • 0/53,9p
      • Those that had won over 4m exactly: 0/7,4p
    • (suggests horses improving for the step up, much like, Straidnahanna did!)

 

Odds

  • 10/10 , 20/1 or shorter
    • 22/1+ : 0/31, 2p

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • Bottom/joint bottom: 0/25, 4 p

 

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H – Run (career)

  • 25+ : 0/50,7p

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

  • 4/10 had 0-4 handicap runs
    • 4/22,7p = +17 SP (small micro to keep eye on, the ‘unexposed’ ones)

H- Run (track)

  • 0 runs: 3/72, 14p

H- Run (Track-NH Code)

  • 0 chase runs here: 7/101,23 p

H-Run (Last Placing)

  • 10/10 had placed at least once on one of last 3 runs
    • Had Not: 0/24, 5p

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career)

  • 10/10 had 0-6 career wins
    • 7+ : 0/32, 6p

H-Win (NH Race Type).

  • 10/10 had 1-5 chase wins
    • 0: 0/4,0p
    • 6+ : 0/16, 3p
    • 7/10 Had 1-2 chase wins

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

  • 7/10 had 0-1 handicap wins (7/48, 15p..+25 SP_
  • 10/10 had 0-4 handicap wins
    • 5+ : 0/22, 3p

H-Win (Hcap NH)

  • 8/10 had 0-1 handicap chase wins (8/68, 20p)
    • 2: 0/29, 2p
    • 3/4: 2/28,6p
    • 5+ : 0/014, 3p

H-Win (Class)

  • 10/10 had 0 Gr3 wins:
    • 1+ : 0/21, 3p

 

Miscellaneous 2

Distance Move

  • 8/10 moving up 2.5-5f from last run. (8/76)

Jockey Claims

  • 5/7/10lb: 0/20, 5p

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR) Track

  • Newbury: 3/11,5p… +26 SP
  • Chep: 2/28,8p
  • Chelt: 2/22,5p
  • Lingf: 2/3,2p
  • Bang: 1/3,2p
  • Exeter: 0/7, 0p
  • Haydock: 0/13, 0p
  • Sand: 0/9, 1p

Trainers (of interest)

  • P Nicholls: 3/8, 3p
  • A King: 2/10,5p
  • 1 win: K Lee/C Tizard/V Williams/Lavelle/NTD
  • Longsdon: 0/5,3p
  • D Pipe: 0/6,0p
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