TTP Jumps Notes: 02/01/17 (complete)

Quals + ratings (+brief note)

AYR

1.00

Rocklim (all hncps + hncp hurdle) UP

Bertalus (micro class) UP

1.30

Masinis Lady (micro class) UP

2.00

The Orange Rogue (micro class) UP

2.30

Isaacstown Lad (micro going) UP

3.00

Sky Full Of Stars (all hncps) UP

3.30

Hello Fellas (NHF) 2nd 4/1

Thomas Do UP (NHF) (no HRB/Speed ratings for either)

 

PLUMPTON

2.20

Thepartysover (all hncps) UP

2.50

Azure Fly (hncp chase) 3rd 20/1>16/1

Satorial Elegance (micro going IF HEAVY, currently Soft)

3.50

Beau Lake (hncp hurdle) UP

 

***

NOTES: Nothing further to add today. I will try and highlight any non ratings pointers horses that may be of interest, especially those at decent prices,16/1+, that may out run their odds. My subjective judgement won’t do better than the ratings pointers over time, and probably not much better than backing everything systematically. Ignoring the NHF horses whereby there isn’t too much to go on,nothing  else from the list above stands out to my eyes,that isn’t on the ratings pointers. Bertalus, Sky Full of Stars and Thepartysover all seem to be out of form, not running well, and I think would be slightly surprising winners, but nothing is impossible. I haven’t backed them today. Bertalus has had a break and gets the first time visor but that needs to work miracles.

***

RATINGS POINTERS

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

none.

Top 3

1.00 A – Rocklim UP

2.30 A – Isaacstown Lad UP

2.50 P – Azure Fly 3rd 20/1>16/1

3.50 P – Beau Lake UP

 

Geegeez Gold 

Top Rated

2.30 A – Isaacstown Lad UP

Top 3

1.30 A – Massinis Lady UP

2.00 A – The Orange Rogue UP

 

***

No trainers are ‘in form’ using the Geegeez indicators,from what I can see.

Quick word on NHF races- the last couple of days there have been three winners on those stats, a couple not highlighted in any ratings- those races could possibly be treated separately with a ‘just trust the stats’ approach given we are dealing with unexposed horses who may improve at some point and ratings may not be as useful. I will continue to highlight those that do have a rating above. But, that is just my view and something to keep an eye on.

A bit of crossbar rattling from the ratings on Sunday- it would have been nice if Arthurs Secret (looks a monkey,find little) had held on having looked the winner for most of the straight, as it would had Nefyn Bay hung on in an exciting finish. Painful viewing but a game of fine margins.  In general they are running well and hopefully we hit another spurt of profit at some point soon. Artifice Sivola made the ‘double top rated’ pointers 2/2 – Proud Gamble being the other that was top rated on both and he also bolted up.

***

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

6 Responses

  1. Not best pleased this morning to see that despite the fact I wrote down (at least I thought I did) and backed most of the selection’s I seem to have missed 3 out of 5 which at the prices is massive!
    The only 2 I see were Artiface Sivola & Mister Clarkson. Proud Gamble as well as Only Geogeous & Unberto D’Orivate I did not see and with names like those I can only presume I was under the weather from New Year celebrations or they was not there when I looked (last time was around 11:15am).
    If they are late additions could something be done to highlight them or even but at the bottom under the heading late/final selections? The only thing worse than backing losers is seeing a big price winner that you should be on and especially so in that 2:25 race were I had already done the other selection Long John.

    1. Hi Gary,
      Sorry to head you missed a couple- I can confirm they were there on the original post, there were no late additions – if i ever do miss any I firstly try and spot them by 10am, which is when the final ‘complete’ sign goes up- or indeed a member will point out an error if they think I have missed one. So, they were all there. If i do spot something later I try and add them clearly, and don’t count them in the official results.

      Proud Gamble- he wasn’t a selection yesterday- that was a reference to when he was also join Top rated on Geegeez and HRB and he won, like Artiface Sivola did.

      Not that it will make you feel any better but I personally focus on the ‘ratings pointers’ horses first, and I didn’t have a penny on those two nice priced winners. I do like to see if a case can be made for non-ratings horses at a price but on this occasion I simply didn’t have the time to look yesterday. So I missed them. Annoying, but that is how I approach them and as long as the stats, however you use them, ensure you come out with some decent profits at the end of the season, that is the main thing for me.

      They have been, and should continue to be, profitable backing them all systematically and they do find big priced winners, in among plenty of losers. Likewise touch wood, so have the ratings pointers to date.
      Josh

  2. Thanks Josh, was more worried about Proud Gamble so pleased never missed one on of the RP ones.
    Like yourself I am selective about the rest so can’t say for sure if would have done them. Like yourself it’s hard going at present yesterday Geegeez had 6 shortlisted with max of 15, I did 4 of them which all lost choosing Briary Belle at 11/2 as my bet and leaving Whisper who was also on 15. Little decisions like that cost dearly and I was still reeling from Sunday when my banker Copper Kay decided to snatch defeat from victory!
    Today has potential in the 2:00 Ayr think Whisky Chaser but can’t have The Orange Rouge so let’s see if I can pick the right one today!

    1. Good luck Gary- yep,members will use the selections etc in different ways. As a benchmark backing all systematically needs to be profitable, as does the ratings pointers- and so far so good- it is a game of patience this- any approach,inc your own,can look out of form/poor in small time frames (albeit my tipping been off for an age!) We don’t have odds caps either and these stats do find winners,inc decent priced ones. Hopefully we just find enough to come on in front over time.
      From memory the stats have found that Gardner winner (20/1), Torika Steppes (25/1), Heartforth (50/1) and Eastlake (33/1) all 20/1+ , I am not sure how many losers in that price range but certainly not +130 points worth since season started. So, bigger priced ones always worth a second glance. Wont win that often but you dont need many. Annoyed I didn’t look at the Gardner horse as he was unexposed as a chaser,2nd/3rd chase start- and that yard is canny, halved in price as well. They had a horror year for most of 2016- virus possibly, but seem to be having more winners in recent weeks. Could have a few
      well handicapped.

  3. Hi Josh,
    I’m also getting in a muddle – on the free posts page you gave Morney Wing today – “top rated on both HRB and Geegeez” and yet it’s not mentioned on this page. I guess I’m just getting mixed up somewhere…

    1. Hi Lynne… yep he wasn’t a TTP stats pick.. he was an ‘attacking the race cold,what do I like’ pick. In the free tips on the free posts I like to focus on 3m+ handicap chases as my race of choice. They are nothing to do with these daily members posts, albeit there are a few who joined this time last year and stay for the tips,as much as looking at these posts . I use HRB and Geeegeez in any race I look at,and actually the results of TTP has made me take more note of them,hence that reference.

      The starting point for all horses on here are whether they qualify against the stats in my jumps stats pack,before then cross referencing them those two ratings sets.

      Hope that is clear and apologies for any confunion. Josh

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