FREE DAILY POST: 30/12/16 (complete)

 

TIPS

NONE.

Taunton are inspecting again it seems but I have had a decent look at the 3.30 and have concluded that I will leave it. Taking on two unexposed chasers, who are in form and have been running well, who are both 7/2 and from powerful, in form yards, probably isn’t wise at the moment! Out of the top two I would prefer the chance of Kerrow – I have watched that Chepstow race again and Boa Island was able to dictate what seemed a very slow pace to my eye – the race turned into a sprint really, and Kerrorw was further back than ideal and also looks like a stout stayer. He just couldn’t pick up as quickly but for one so inexperienced he jumped well and finished his race off. There is the potential for a fair bit of pace on in here also and the race should be run to suit. Boa Island has jumped left a few times on his other goes RH and fell at Exeter, and that question would make me leave him at his price. Not sure if I am half talking myself into a bet on Kerror at 7/2- but given inexperience that may be short enough. I struggled to make a proper case for any outsiders. If I am being honest I have talked myself out of putting up Ballycoe and Tinker Time. The latter has a big weight and I think could be at his rating ceiling- he ran well at Ascot but was in a bunch finish for 2nd suggesting he may have ran up to his mark. He is 3/6 OR 121-132 so one to note if/when mark drops. I thought he could run ok though but is open to attack from anything with something in hand. The trip was too short the last day. He isn’t top 3 on either ratings set I glance at either, which would temper enthusiasm. Ballycoe- I thought the step up in distance looked interesting, but only that. I wasn’t convinced in the end that he would relish the trip- a question, and the yard a bit hot and cold- cold at the moment. Also has class to prove. So, proving class and distance are two big enough questions. But, he could also run ok. Given their profiles I would be slightly surprised if both the top two got beat, but we shall see. If one of TT or B wins, some more long, lingering staring will take place over the Liverpool skyline from my ‘office’ window. But, I think I am right to dodge them. They will have other days and both trainers may be on a ‘get the mark down’ exercise.

 

JUMPS ANGLES

Note: These are trainer systems and ARE NOT related to horse form or me standing in front of a dart board randomly chucking ‘arras’ at the racing post (albeit at times that may not be a bad idea!) All horses in this section come from researched angles that have a set of ‘rules’ – when a horse ‘qualifiers’ against those rules they get posted here, for the angles we are following. There is a mix of systems that have been around a while and have worked, and then there are the ‘test’ systems, and sometimes monthly trainer pointers/angles. How you use them is up to you but the research exists somewhere in the ‘free reports&systems’ tab as above. If at any point you have a question about why a horse is posted on this page, and how many marbles I have lost today, please just ask/post a comment… 

 

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio– LIVE TEST

2.40 Hay – Subtle Grey

 

December Trainers (pointers, unproven in live play)

1.00 Taunt – Beau Du Brizais – UP

3.30 Taunt – Silver Commander 2nd 8/1

 

Tom George Handicap Chasers

(this one has worked well over time,in live play for couple of seasons,touch wood it continues. Indeed its last qualifier, 2 days ago, won at 9/1 i think)

2.30 Taunt- Behind The Wire WON 6/1 

 

***

That will do for today.

 

About This Author

<p>Hi, I’m Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch… and if you could use the ‘share buttons’ above that would also be appreciated :)</p>

13 Comments

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  • Gerry’s Paddy Watch (taken from comment under Members Post..)

    Paddy Watch

    Busy day for Paddy tomorrow at Haydock Park

    2.10 Mystifiable 1PT WIN 13/2 bET365
    2.40 Viva Steve 1pt win 5/1 Bet365
    3.10 Global Stage 1pt win 5/1 Bet365
    3.40 Druids Folly 1/2pt win 10/3 Bet365

    Josh,have a great day out,we could use some help putting some wind into Paddys Sails,every cheer counts

    Josh 11 months ago Reply


  • I’m on viva steve usually runs well after a decent break between is races thought the price was fair enougth

    antony church 11 months ago Reply


  • Good afternoon.
    Not to many comments so I decided to drop one for a change 🙂
    Well I think Cloudy Bob can go close – conditions will suit – worth a little EW nibble at 16/1 I’m also on Play The Ace -price is short but should give a good run for the money.
    Any thoughts?
    Cheers Maz

    Marcin Sudol 11 months ago Reply


    • Hi Maz. All comments welcome here, both those that run well and those that are still running the next day! 🙂
      Good luck with those- can see a case for Cloudy Bob – certainly anytime you back him you want a good price , seems hard to catch right and I should think connections dont know which cloudy bob will turn up in any given race- a repeat of that Ascot run or the Kempton one would see him out run those odds for sure. Looks a decent little contest. Play The Ace- yep again I can see a case, esp the step back up in trip helping. Again that is full of unexposed chasers and I wouldn’t say a race to go mad in, a few could improve on recent chase form, some of the hurdlers may take to it really well. More a race to watch for the future- albeit I backed the George one as I do most of his in that system above – albeit more hopeful than confident. Good luck. Josh

      Josh 11 months ago Reply


      • Agree with all! Could be something could be nothing!
        Let’s get ready to rumble! 🙂

        Maz

        Marcin Sudol 11 months ago Reply


  • A day for quiet reflection,nothing of any real value worth a bet,Im so reflective i cant cant even construct a sentence,be strange not tuning into channel 4 on Sunday,assume bet365 will cover itv races for their tv specials now on their site

    gerry 11 months ago Reply


    • Yeah Gerry, they will be. They’ve also stuck up loads of feature races on Saturday to cover for the lack of terrestial TV on NYE.
      Paul

      blueboy199 11 months ago Reply


  • Behind the wire ,nice winner thanks.

    Michael Murphy 11 months ago Reply


    • No problem. That George Micro prob one of the best, no odds cap,
      now 12/43 for 2016, +22 SP ,
      since 2010, 61/204, 101 places (inc wins) +118 SP, +150 BFSP. That one doesn’t need overthinking! Will only change if he fails to buy similar types of horse one year/changes MO,has a virus. So far so good.
      Josh

      Josh 11 months ago Reply


  • Cheers Josh – You can analyse a 3 mile chase brilliantly – KERROW 9/2 on Betair £20

    Happy new Year

    Now start backing them yourself with conviction

    Very small booom!!

    Joe 11 months ago Reply


    • Good stuff Joe- I may have had a go on Bet365 when effectively hit 9/2 with their SP boost offer… comfortable leaving him at 7/2, only second chase start and he did take two small liberties, I think if 9/2 this morning he would have been put up- I will get more 7/2 shots wrong than I get right I think- just pleased with the race reading on that one- esp that Chepstow race and the pace etc. They went a better gallop here, and had Hutch on – clearly stays very well so rode him closer to pace, just tracking behind. That form could work out well, front 2/3 decent enough. Tipping 7/2 winners clearly something else to add to the could do better list! more positives there though than negatives moving forwards!

      Josh 11 months ago Reply


  • Well done Josh,3 winners you had today, didn’t back any of them but that’s just my own personal approach to things,if you keep on doing what worked before,you will get same results,of course you have to adapt to the changes but they occur over a period of time

    gerry 11 months ago Reply


    • Yep a good day, should have done the treble haha. I would take that every day, bar tipping Kerrow, would have been the icing. But I won’t complain. You have to enjoy those days. Onto tomorrow.

      Josh 11 months ago Reply


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