FREE DAILY POST: 16/12/16 (complete)

Jumps angles _+ stats/angles horse…

Nothing to cheer on Thursday. Taking on Yanmere in more testing conditions than I assumed/thought turned out to be an error. Still, the selection ran no sort of race and clearly the only time to trust him now is his first run of the season. That was too bad to be true, clearly a ‘character’. The 20/1 poke over in Ireland ran no sort of race, never really put into it. He halved in price as well. Given his record on his 3rd start of the season (won last twice on 3rd start,on back of poor runs) I will keep an eye on him for next time.

Onto Friday…

 

TIPS

2.20 Uttoxeter… NONE… looks a tricky race where you could make some sort of case for 4/5 of them I think, and at same time they all have the odd question. I will leave it.

I tipped Cailleach Annie LTO – she never went a yard there really,very poor run, never looking comfortable or jumping well. That makes me anxious here. Maybe a combination of this slightly smaller field, going back LH and the cheekpieces will do the trick. No idea. Unexposed and ran well enough at Chepstow. I have talked myself out of giving her one more chance- looks a competitive little race- but if the headgear works it may be a painful watch at 8/1. Special Wells- I can’t work out if he stays or not- a bit inconclusive still I think. At the prices those two look interesting and one may go in but it wouldn’t be a confident stab. The three at the top of the market have strong chances also.

***

 

JUMPS ANGLES

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio – Live Test

Hurdle

3.05 Ascot – Hastrubal – UP

 

December Trainers

5.15 Wolv – Suzis Connoisseur / Upavon (both 14/1<)

6.45 Wolvs – Monna Valley (14/1<)

 

V Williams Chasers November (tracking Dec)

1.20 Ascot – Dubawi Island- UP

 

G McPherson  (any odds)

2.20 Uttox – Lord Heathfield- WON 25/1>14/1

 

**

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

8.30 Dundalk… Cocoa Beach.. 14/1… could be worth keeping an eye on in the market – I think I would only have confidence if he were backed. But, the ‘way in’ is Lyons’ record with newcomers from other yards first time up… 4/12,7 places in the last 2 years, +16 SP. He is also in red hot form at the moment, 2/9,7p all runners the last 14 days. This horse gets a hood for the first time and is unexposed. The break isn’t a concern for his runners- he can ready them if required. I think the hood may need to work and the market may well dictate whether or not any supporters will get a run for their money or not. I have thrown £5 at for interest on the nose. Not one you could be overly confident about but some of those stats look interesting enough.

From the stats pack, which has found a few winners at Dundalk so far at decent prices, there are a couple of qualifiers, both returning after lengthy breaks and seemingly unfancied as I write…

7.00 – Pure Happiness

7.30 – Timia.

 

**

That will be all for today.

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

  1. On Thursday the Best micro at Chelmsford found us a 10/1 winner Pendo, SP 7/1) and a loser.

    I do not have much for Friday at present, I like the profile of Imperial Eloquence in the 3.40 Ascot.

    1. I didn’t have time to look at Chelm sadly, was Pando one from the AW stats pack? Or if not what micro? (May have missed a previous comment) well done if you backed him

  2. Think Maybe Josh its by looking at Profitable Trainers and Jockeys at Chelmsford.One could have also picked out Zain Arion 16/1,was bit tenous though.I also think Imperial Eloquence is in with a shout in the Bumper,Conor Shoemark keeps the ride,I have a feeling he wasn’t meant to win lto as the money was down on stable mate Poetic Rhythm,of course its a different race on a different day

    1. The same combo can be considered with Man from Seville in the previous race who is sure to be suited by the new trip on a stiff track.

  3. There were 4 standout trainers with runners tonight at Chelmsford profit wise
    Stuart Williams
    Hughie Morrison
    John BEST
    John Butler
    There was 3 standout Jockey
    Kieron Fox
    Timmy Murphy
    Lulu Stanford

    Fox and Best combined for Pendo

    Finding Zain Arion required bit more digging
    John Egan is in negative at Chelmsford but is positive combined with Butler on aw

  4. Ascot 3.40 Cl1 Bumper
    My suggestions
    Agamemmon 20 > 12 TS 43
    Senatus 25 > 20 TS 87
    Silver Kayf 33 > 25 TS 79

    Progeny results for Oscar Road
    HORSE SIRE WINS PLACES RUNS £PRIZE RPR DIST
    Highbrow Blue (IRE) 08g Blueprint (IRE) 1 4 10 £10,045.63 131 19f
    Ballela Boy (IRE) 11g Golan (IRE) 10.9f 2 3 7 £13,865.43 128 23f
    Golan Road (IRE) 09m Golan (IRE) 10.9f 1 3 11 £10,303.81 119 19f
    Agamemmon (IRE) 12g Getaway (GER) 1 0 1 £1,949.40 111 16f

  5. Hi Josh / All

    8.30 Dundalk – Spli The Atom 11.0 (Boylesports & Stan James)

    This lad is a 5 time winner here and I think his next win could be today, Well backed last week over 5F he was last away couldn’t go the pace until the last 1/2 furlong and finished strongly for a close up 5th showing he is in good fettle, back over 6F where he has a course record of 5 runs, 3 wins, 4 places winning off 77,80 & 87 and runs off 81 today with Killian Leonard taking off 5lb
    making it effectively 76. He is versatile and can run from the front or be held up or just follow the pace with good effect so stall 9 does not worry me and I expect a big run today. Was available at 16/1 last evening but already being backed so if interested I would suggest getting on early as I can see the money coming all day….Good luck with all your selections

    Cheers
    Steve

      1. Well a frustrating 4th in the end the start compromised his chance and was shuffled back to last done well to be as close as he was at the finish…next time

  6. hi josh, these TTP cross referenced with horseracebase & geegeez are superb, i am winning everyday with them , guaranteed 2 points profit today with 2 to come, after winning 9 points last 2 days. this could be your greatest idea!

  7. hi josh
    further to above, i notice for saturdays selections, you seem wary about them as it is a saturday. you keep selecting them, i will keep a record of all saturday results and keep you posted. will update after 4 of them.

    1. Hi Malc, yep… only some slight caution and I would very much appreciate it if you kept a record. I only remember, as an example…top 3 HRB don’t perform as well in G3 handicap chases, as they do in lower classes..could be that the % drops lower as the handicap gets more competitive. It isn’t a reason to ignore the ‘ratings pointers’ but maybe a reason not to discard the others so quickly. Maybe. We shall see.

      That could well be my greatest ever idea if the first 8 days or so are a guide…if they can maintain a 25%+ SR , 50% win/place, I think we would take that! We shall see.

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