Nothing to cheer on Thursday. Taking on Yanmere in more testing conditions than I assumed/thought turned out to be an error. Still, the selection ran no sort of race and clearly the only time to trust him now is his first run of the season. That was too bad to be true, clearly a ‘character’. The 20/1 poke over in Ireland ran no sort of race, never really put into it. He halved in price as well. Given his record on his 3rd start of the season (won last twice on 3rd start,on back of poor runs) I will keep an eye on him for next time.
2.20 Uttoxeter… NONE… looks a tricky race where you could make some sort of case for 4/5 of them I think, and at same time they all have the odd question. I will leave it.
I tipped Cailleach Annie LTO – she never went a yard there really,very poor run, never looking comfortable or jumping well. That makes me anxious here. Maybe a combination of this slightly smaller field, going back LH and the cheekpieces will do the trick. No idea. Unexposed and ran well enough at Chepstow. I have talked myself out of giving her one more chance- looks a competitive little race- but if the headgear works it may be a painful watch at 8/1. Special Wells- I can’t work out if he stays or not- a bit inconclusive still I think. At the prices those two look interesting and one may go in but it wouldn’t be a confident stab. The three at the top of the market have strong chances also.
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio – Live Test
3.05 Ascot – Hastrubal – UP
5.15 Wolv – Suzis Connoisseur / Upavon (both 14/1<)
6.45 Wolvs – Monna Valley (14/1<)
V Williams Chasers November (tracking Dec)
1.20 Ascot – Dubawi Island- UP
G McPherson (any odds)
2.20 Uttox – Lord Heathfield- WON 25/1>14/1
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
8.30 Dundalk… Cocoa Beach.. 14/1… could be worth keeping an eye on in the market – I think I would only have confidence if he were backed. But, the ‘way in’ is Lyons’ record with newcomers from other yards first time up… 4/12,7 places in the last 2 years, +16 SP. He is also in red hot form at the moment, 2/9,7p all runners the last 14 days. This horse gets a hood for the first time and is unexposed. The break isn’t a concern for his runners- he can ready them if required. I think the hood may need to work and the market may well dictate whether or not any supporters will get a run for their money or not. I have thrown £5 at for interest on the nose. Not one you could be overly confident about but some of those stats look interesting enough.
From the stats pack, which has found a few winners at Dundalk so far at decent prices, there are a couple of qualifiers, both returning after lengthy breaks and seemingly unfancied as I write…
7.00 – Pure Happiness
7.30 – Timia.
That will be all for today.