FREE DAILY POST: 05/12/16 (COMPLETE)

complete… couple of jumps angles..

Oh a winner. What a rare find. I am still bloodied and battered at the bottom of the cliff still,albeit I no longer feel that I may be drowning,cast out to sea. We won’t get ahead of ourselves but it was a joy to watch Harry The Viking jump and gallop them silly.

If you missed my Aintree Review video you can watch that HERE>>>

 

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TIPS

1.35 Ludlow MEETING ABANDONED 

Butlergrove King – 1/2 point EW + 1/2 point win – 10/1 (Bet365/PP) (so 1 point win, 1/2 place)

I will keep this ‘short’ for now. I fancied this one at Worcester in the summer where something went wrong I think, given how he stopped and the subsequent time off the track. This one usually front runs so it was maybe some surprise that he was so far back on his return after a few months, LTO. Albeit, for a horse who has won well over fences here before, over 24f, maybe in hindsight it wasn’t that surprising!! Now, he could just have issues and be completely out of form. OR, that last run was a pipe opener for a return to a track that connections know he likes.

When he is ‘on it’ he tries to make all. We will know very early on here whether I have thrown away 1.5 points. IF he jumps of and leads as expected (or keeps Brownville company) I think he will place at worse- baring accidents. He is 2/11 over fences and is still lightly raced. This extra couple of furlongs is a question also- but many in here have far greater stamina questions/concerns than him.

He has some decent enough form to his name also – he thumped Brownville (the fav) in a race at Uttoxeter. A couple finished ahead of him that day but the Twister horse was put in his place and he looks a weak fav here. That day at Uttoxeter he got into a ferocious pace battle from flag fall and did well to run as he did. He also has a placing at Fontwell in a race that many have come out of and won since. He is open to progress this year, if fit and over whatever happened at Worcester. The trainer’s horses are going ok also and we know the jockey can ride from the front, as he has done for Venetia a few times, including on Royal Palladium recently.

So, all in all, for a 10/1 shot he was worth a punt. I think both the market will guide and will how he lines up. If I am right I think he may halve in price, and try and lead all the way. If I am wrong that is £30 I will never see again.

Some thoughts on the others Monday morning. (plenty in here with stamina questions) This meeting well may be called off if they get a deep frost which would be bloody annoying.

 

2.40 Ludlow… I don’t think I will tip Noche De Reyes at 5s, albeit that is big- I haven’t looked at the others albeit he is a TTP qualifier. The ground went for him the last day when really well fancied – I am sure it went heavy the last day or certainly very soft- he is not a soft ground horse. Look at his solid form before that run,inc that Ascot run. He repeats that and he wins this well for me. 5s probably won’t be around come the morning, we shall see. He has a bit of pace to aim at also. It is a hot little race but he is a TTP qualifier and I have had a nibble at that price, which will look big IF it was the ground LTO.

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JUMPS ANGLES

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio– LIVE TEST

Hurdle

1.15 Ayr – Cuil Rogue (unexp hurdlers) UP 3/1

Chase

1.35 Lud – Danimix (2nd run after a break)

2.20 Ayr- Sky Full of Stars (unxp chasers) Fell

2.40 Lud – Noche De Reyes (george same distance)

 

Harry Fry Mares (10/1< guide)

3.40 Lud- Goodnitesweetheart

 

Nothing else today.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

12 Responses

  1. Thanks for the heads up on Noche Josh. Ive been trying to figure out why he ran so badly LTO given that Ascot race has worked out extremely well. Winner went close off 8lbs higher in a better race, 4th won a class 2 and 3rd and 8th have also won since so the 5/1 looks like a steal.

    With regards to the 1:35 I dont think By The Boardwalk has done anything wrong LTO and really should be favourite here. Not to mention he is considerbly clear on HRB ratings. Can’t see him being out of the first three. I can definitely see Butlergrove King winning this although whilst I agree the LTO run should be ignored I am concerned about the number of chances he had in the summer. Still its a nice saver to have.

    1. Yep BTB stood out a tad and if mine bombs out he may be the one to take this. Will ponder a 1/2 at 6s. Couldn’t trust much else. Plenty of questionable stayers. Hobbs horse is unexposed but too inexperienced I think and could still need the run after early departure LTO. Can’t have Brownville at that price. Still Believing would have a chance but was too poor for me the last day. Dynamix is interesting if bouncing into some form but he is so out of form I can’t. So that leaves the Bailey horse as last one standing I think. Can see why you like him. The solid horse and did bump into one with something in hand the last day. Hmmm.

  2. Paddy Watch

    A nice return to form for Paddy adding to his total,its a very profitable system just to concentrate on his bumpers for O Brien,snd looking at their site the have plenty of more in the pipeline in this sphere.

    Just the one for tomorrow,a horse that needs to run some stinkers to get a break,must really love his days out,even been to Killarney during the summer.He might be thereabouts if some others fail to perform

    2.40 Ludlow Owen Na View 1pt win Bet365 5/1(I think this one will drift and might get a bonus)

    Running Total +17

  3. Hi Josh / All

    3.30 Lingfield – Desert Strike 5.3

    Well done with the old boy yesterday Josh & keeping on the theme I think this old boy has a great chance of adding to his 23 AW wins today. Back at Lingfield for the first time since June of last year where he was running / winning at marks in the 70’s he showed signs of coming back to form at Wolves last time out and is running off 63 today, His 5 wins at Lingfield over 6F have come off marks of 65, 69, 75, 75, & 78 and in class 6 at the track / distance he is 2 out of 2.
    He loves to lead and is drawn well in 3, Pace pressure could come from Spowarticus but he is drawn 12 and possibly Keep it Dark drawn 8 who sometimes leads and sometimes is held up, but with his 5F pace I can see Desert Strike leading travelling powerfully and kicking clear off the bend and off this mark adding to his tally today

    Cheers
    Steve

    1. Cheers Steve, I always take plenty of note when you add such a good write up- and I do like a front runner. Will have a rare bet on the sand for me! GL

    2. Wallop! Well, that went exactly, to the letter, as you said it would! Bloody brilliant. Always take note when you write a few sentences Steve, it usually pays! Nice end to the day, cheers.

      1. Thanks Josh, Went perfectly to plan with Spowarticus not able to bother him from his high draw and Keep it Dark held up today had a solid 2 1/2 pts win (£50.00)at 5.3 and 3 points place at Evs to cover the win so well worth waiting for

        Cheers
        Steve

  4. Hi Josh. I took 18/1 on Gold Opera. I had it 2nd in my historical ratings just behind Spanish Fleet……when I saw you flagged it up in the Members Page…I had a nice EW on it.
    It was also Blair Campbell’s first winner…..
    There’s always sun over the horizon…..it pulled back my losers lol.

    1. Great stuff Tony – I had 1/2 my TTP stake on at 16s, drifted to 18s and though sod it, would kick myself if the visor worked and didn’t have my TTP point on- thankfully second didn’t jump the last very well- kind of why you can’t get annoyed when you have fallers etc- would have been very close but for that but his track position,and fact hughes had to close, forced that error. Great ride from the young lad. Visor did the trick – will lose form now, and we just have to wait for 1st time blinkers next to complete the set!! Good couple of days what with the 14/1 Richards winners yesterday- needed it mind!

      1. Your right Josh, one has to take a philosophical approach to our hobby, or it would tip you over the edge . lol…
        Were in the great chance saloon of life. Horse racing.

        1. Had a 1/4 pt win lol on this too as “Gold Away” was the only stallion to have won over the trip and going 6 runs 3 wins 3 places not confident but felt I had to have something on with the stats

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