Big Race Tips + Free Much Read Racing Cloumn…
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TIPS
None. Not a 3m+ handicap chase to be seen on a Friday. Poor.
In fairness Saturday more than makes up for it with a decent chase at Bangor, The Rehearsal Chase from Newcastle ( I should look to see if any trends) and then some minor 26f handicap chase from Newbury or something! Plenty there to spend my Friday afternoon ploughing through.
JUMPS
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio – LIVE TES
Hurdle
3.10 Donny – City Supreme (AJH distance)
3.20 Newb- El Bandit (clear top weights)
Chase
2.35 Donny- Katachenko (2nd run after break)
NTD Unexp Chasers
2.00 Donny – Deputy Commander
V Williams Chasers
2.45 Newb – Tenor Nivernais
T George Handicap Chasers
2.00 Donny – Florida Calling
2.45 Newb- Double Shuffle
G McPherson
I need to have a look at him again but the current one I have saved from way back in the day… National Hunt/handicaps/0-1 runs last 90 days/0-1 run in todays national hunt handicap type (handicap hurdle/chase etc) … 17/75,25 places since 2010… +180 SP (2/6,3p this year)
2.00 Donny – Pyrshan
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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Nothing more today.
8 Responses
Paddy Watch
2 from 2 today at 7/1sp and 9/2ep
Paddy has 2 for Tom George(gone bit cold again).the value bet is Florida Calling 15/2 BV
2.00 Doncaster Florida Calling 1pt win
Rnning Total +16.5
Nice to get back in the winners circle and always fun when they win like that. Primrose Valley was backed into 5/1 and had no luck whatsoever although probably wouldnt have been good enough to win. Less said about Fouborg the better!
Tomorrow looks like another good day. Starting off I want to be Double Shuffle in the 14:45 at Newbury who with 9 runners looks a solid e/w bet. This is far easier than the race LTO and much more his level. He is 1/1 at the track. George has cooled off a little but had a winner today and has still had 50% of his runners place. The Favourite has always been thought of highly by Skelton however he keeps disappointing and has to be taken on plus top weights have a poor record in this race. Of the rest they either consist of exposed horses who have proven they aint up to this level or novices stepping up to this level for the first time. (with the exception of Splash of Ginge who I tipped up LTO but is running out of excuses as far as I am concerned and probably wants a more undulating track). Something could beat him but would be disappointing if he wasnt in the first three.
It wouldnt surpise me if Harry Fry has a fourtimer at Newbury tomorrow. (although his horse might struggle to beat Jenkins in the opener) Any Drama in the 15:50 has been mentioned by Mark Howard as the horse to follow out of Harry Fry’s yard. Was a creditable 6th in a Grade 2 Bumper at Aintree. Trainer has mentioned that the track didnt suit and the ground was less than ideal. He thinks extremely highly of the horse and said his ideal conditions would be 2 and a half miles in a novice hurdle (check), on soft to heavy ground (check) at a track like Newbury or Exeter (CHECK). Fry does really well here and his hurdlers have gone 5/15, 11 places in the past 2 years. I just about got the 6s but the 4/1 is still fine.
I also think Unowhatimeanharry will make it 6 out of 6 for Fry in the Long Distance Hurdle. He goes well fresh (14/19 winners were running off a 121-365 day break). 18/19 winners were aged 6 to 9 that leaves the selection and Maximiser. In a year where there doesnt seem to be an obvious World Hurdle selection I can see him winning it come March. However if he has those sort of aspirations he really aught to be winning this.
Finally I want to have a small e/w bet on Pivotman in the 19:15 at Wolves. Easterby is in cracking form at the moment and has a really good record at the track particularly when Graham Gibbons rides (9/25, 18 places in handicaps in the last 2 years). The jockey has a 1st and a 2nd at the track. The horse is 2/3 over course and distance. Whilst he is 8 he won 2 starts ago so still in good shape. All his wins have come within 24 days of his last run so his last run should set him up for this. He gets a plum draw and both times Graham (hope you’re reading) has ridden him prominantly both times at the track. Hopeful of a big run.
If only I did antepost bets. I think that’s his price well and truly blown.
EEEee in’t life grand sometimes. THANKS must go out to Host and contibutors for I am in your debt. It’s often the little things that stick in your mind. I bet on a mixture of stats and systems from the scouser wannabe ( no idea how to put a mojo here but it would be very much tongue in cheek cos I’ve shaken the hand of the most hallowed of men and you are much too young to have ever had the chance) and a very generous group of knowledgeable posters of surprising gems. Having followed F O’Brien and Paddy along with TGeorge through the summer after reading a post from Gerry pertaining to the coming NH seaon I’ve made a few quid profit.
I have to travel a few miles to get into a town with bookies so most of my betting is online but today I found myself walking past a bookies and the first thing that came to mind was Paddy. It wasn’t a PP shop but the last thing I’d seen before going out was Gearoids Paddy Watch(are you Gerry in disguise? lol). Well a nice 300/1 + trixie resulted but I am struggling to get things right in my head. I could have sworn on Wednesday night that Paddy was riding Micks Maestro cos that’s what it says in my betting book and thats why a backed it. I had no need to look at betting sheets in the shop cos the bets were in my head. Was there a jock change? Or has lady luck stopped kicking me in the bollox and given me a golden shower.
Ah I do enjoy reading such comments- great work! Yep you have Gerry (that is Gerry I think!) for Paddy Watch and that seems to be going well at the moment. 300/1 trixies are always welcome, enjoy spending the winnings! You always need luck in this game and you make your own luck I think, over time.
Haha, I leave the scouse accent to the locals, I do a very poor impression and as yet I don’t think I’ve picked it up, even though I am coming on for 10 years up here.
UNOWHATIMEANHARRY UBUK 2.10 @Newbury SAN BENEDETO RED SPINNER 2.45 @Newbury my 4 fancies against the field, UBUK backed down from 20/1, missed out on that as i only have little time to study the form etc, ah well, good luck everyone.
UBAK my predictive text is as bad as my tipping..haha.
GHOST RIVER- should note another from my Aintree review video- (2 have gone in since then at 10s, 6/1>7/2, was I on either— hmmm) Anyway- this is a big stamp of a horse, steps up in trip and makes handicap debut.Looks a chaser in the making to me, giant of a horse- Bowens have always liked him. Only 7/2 here but this trip could be the making of him- will probably watch with interest. Questions are starting to mount up though so hopefully can see more from him!