SAT Big Race Trends/Stats

some stats/trends for the G3 3m3f Handicap Chase on Saturday…

I may get time to find a few pointers for the BV Gold Cup but I won’t be tipping in the race and would rather focus on the 3m3f handicap chase… (any HRB users are welcome to post any pointers for the BV Gold Cup 🙂 )

Cheltenham Open Meeting

Grade 3 27.5f handicap chase

Stats for 10 years

10 winners, 132 runners, 33 places

TRENDS

Horse Age

8/10 aged 5-8
- 8/80, 24 places
- Age 9+ : 2/52, 9 places

Days Since Run

6-15 days: 0/21,2 places
16-45 days: 7/47,17 places
181-240 days: 3/45,12 places
241+ : 0/17, 1 place

Horse Weight (exc claim)

10-5 or less: 5/30, 8 places
11-3+ : 4/51,10 places
11-12: 1/11,3 places

Position In Market

8/10 top 5 in market

Odds

9/10 , 12/1 or shorter SP
14/1 + : 1/55, 5 places

OTHER STATS

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H (Horse) -Run (90 days)

2+ : 0/20, 1 place

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

7/10 had 0-7 runs in all handicaps

H-Run (NH Race Type)

8/10 had 12 or fewer chase runs

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type)

9/10 had 1-6 handicap chase runs
- 9/66, 24 places
- 7+ : 1/63, 9 places

H- Run (track)

0: 0/12, 3 places

H- Run (Track-NH Code)

0 chase runs at track: 0/21, 5 places

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career)

2/3: 0/26,6 p (could just be an anomaly)

H-Win (NH Race Type).

1: 4/19, 7 places…+29 SP
2: 0/32, 8 places
3: 1/36, 5 places
4/5: 5/38, 11 places

H-Win (Hcap NH)

3+ handicap chase wins: 0/22, 3 places

H-Win (Class)

10/10 had 0 class wins (Grade 3 wins) 10/98,30 places
1+ G3 wins: 0/34, 3 places

H-Win (Track/NH Code)

0 : 4/83, 21 places
1/2 chase wins at track: 6/49, 12 places

Miscellaneous 2

Best in Three Runs

9/10 finished top 3 on at least one of last 3 starts
- 9/103 runners, 29 places

Distance Move

7/10 moving UP 3f-4f from last run
3/10 moving down 2-5f from last run.
All other distance moves 0/69, 13 places- use as a guide.

Highest Class Win

4/34 had won at G2 or G1 level previously.

H-Places (NH Race type)

4/14,7 places had 1-2 places (inc wins) in chases only…+34 SP

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR) Hcap/Non

Ran in non handicap LTO: 0/22, 3 places

(LR) Track

Chelt: 4/30, 9 places
Ayr: 2/15,6 places
Chep: 2/7,2 places
Sand: 1/7,2p
Aintree: 1/25, 4 p
Ascot: 0/10,1 p

Trainers (of interest)

P Nicholls: 2/10, 3 places
1 win each: N Mulholland/Hobbs/Jonjo ONeill/V Dartnall/F O’Brien/C Tizzard/M Scudamore
NTD: 0/12, 5 places
D Pipe: 0/12,1 p
V Williams: 0/7,0 p