FREE DAILY POST: 04/11/16 (COMPLETE)

Stats/Angles horse+… Jumps angles…

NOTE: Just so you can all keep tabs on me… I promised that £1 from every sale of the AW stats pack would go to the IJF given events at Kempton -and it was that day that I was researching the guide. As I write on Thursday 17 have been sold, so we can round that up to £20. Doubt it will grow too much more and a lot of you who may have bought it are in the Members Club and get it for free anyway. But, every little helps.

 

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TIPS

None. No races of interest in Friday. It is raining up in Liverpool as I write and hopefully it spreads far and wide. There is the Badger Ales chase to get stuck into on Saturday, that looks likely to be the tipping highlight if a decent field.

 

JUMPS ANGLES

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio

Hurdle

2.35 War – ActionDancer NR(unxp hurdler,market ‘can’ be guide with this yard)

Chase

2.45 Font- Fine Resolve UP(Dunn angle)

3.45 War – Ballydague Lady WON 5/2 (second run after break)

 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

Ah we were unlucky yesterday with Erhaaf who could/should have won but for a troubled passage. On we go…

2.25 DownRoyal – Wolfslair – 9/2, 4/1 –  WON 9/2 (easy as you like really,job done) This one may be short enough, but then sometimes my judgement at this end is awful and he could well bolt up like a 5/4 shot- he makes handicap debut here and everything ‘looks’ right. Firstly Elliot is 3/10 with his handicap debutants at the track in the last 5 years, for decent profits. In the last 2 years he is only 6/62 with all handicap debutants so in that context, those stats look even better. The horse is doing what you wan to see really – namely stepping up in trip, this one by around 5 furlongs. He is bred to want a stamina test and being ‘outpaced’ in his previous runs is a perfectly good reason for why has had ran as he has- also gaining experience with every run. I also like the fact that his qualifying run the last day was his first run of the season, having had a break after the first two. So he may also come on fitness wise. Anyway, if he does have plenty in hand of this mark, this looks like the time he is going to show it for me. Elliot’s are going well enough ‘in form’ – 11/49,18 places last 14 days

 

That will be all for today. Good Luck.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

31 Responses

  1. Paddy and O Brien continue in great form,Had Wizards Sliabh at 10/1,was good price considering took 7/1,his other finished 3rd,Has just the one ride as far as i can see tomorrow,in the bumper at Warwick,Sugar Storm is a 20/1 price so would be optimistic to expect a winner there,trainer not so successfull there

  2. Followed you in on Erhaaf!

    Dead unlucky if you watched it. I agree with jockey Stevey Donohoe that he would’ve won with a clear run

    Not getting the the rub of the green lately. Give me a winner!

    1. Ah yea I did hear, I had to nip out just before race set off annoyingly so missed it. That is a right bugger, had EW + a win bet on it. Would have been nice return. Never mind. The luck will come. That is flat racing annoyingly – have to try and remember the winners we backed (well maybe not me,but a general point!) where others suffered in behind etc.

  3. For anyone interested I have just seen this on twitter.

    This is a list of Ballydoyle horses (and their Flat ratings) that have been gelded and will go hurdling with Joseph O’Brien for JP:

    HousesofParliament (113)
    Sword Fighter (110)
    The Major General (109)
    Tree of Knowledge (102)
    Landofhopeandglory (102)
    Triplicate (101)
    Cook Islands (96)
    Unicorn (96)
    Big Ben (93)
    Immortal Bridge (84)
    Bhutan

    Chris R.

  4. Quiet day tomorrow. I do like the look of that Alex Dunn angle though

    So im back Fine Resolve who’s taken a big drop in the ratings for just two bad chase runs. Goes tomorrow very well handicaps and handles a variety of conditions by the looks of it.

    8/1 (Hills) in a 5-runner affair looks way too big

  5. Surprised not to see Mr J Feane on your AW Trainer Stats for Dundalk.

    Very good, profitable record there, especially with today’s jockey Gary Halpin.

    I’ve had a very speculative punt in the 6.35 on Prince Connoisseur 14/1 (B365). A mighty fall from grace for the horse: a former listed runner rated in the 80’s, today goes off 56. No doubt, horse may just be in no form whatsoever but thought I’d chance my arm given the positive stats pointers

    1. There will be a reason not there- may be the timings- I used the same months timeframe as for UK tracks, ie ‘winter’ Nov-April – they probably have a great overall record and decent one over ‘summer months’ also maybe

      1. J J Feane doesn’t strike me as being a profitable trainer for the Dundalk winter racing….Oct – April

        Non-Hcaps 4/26 winners for 2013-14-15-16
        Handicaps 13/75 winners for the same years

        Unless he has changed his training strategy, and they do that just to confuse us stats followers, he has had only 1 Handicap winner BEFORE Christmas in those four seasons……November & December have not been his best months. 2 in the non-hcaps in October in the past, and the ISP of his winners, they look as though the bookies take limited chances with his runners…..still, today could be the day !

    1. Hi Rory, yep Ben was/is the leader on all things monthly angles for me – one of the many influences he may have had on my own approach! No problems at all sharing his free content etc.

      I am not sure if he has done one again for this year or not- agree haven’t seen a free one but may have been busy getting service off ground, maybe a members only post. I will take a look when time allows.
      I am content just having VW and Pipe onside- have made mistake in past of following too many angles/trainers etc.

  6. Hi Josh / All

    6.50 Newcastle – Rock Warbler 4.8

    I put up the above as a strong selection a few weeks back on his 1st run at Newcastle and believe he has an equally excellent oppurtunity of repeating the feat tonight over an extra furlong. Back in September 2015 this horse had the 3rd of 3 maiden runs at Kempton for Charlie Appleby finishing 2nd over tonights distance of 7F beaten just over a length and was given a handicap mark of 75…Things obviously had gone wrong and he was sold to Oliver Greenall and wasn’t seen again until July at Chester where he finished a distant last and followed that with 2 more last place finishes at Wolverhampton beaten a total of 102 lengths….He was then turned out 5 days later back at Wolverhampton with Paul Hanagan booked over 6F off a mark of 55 and was an extremely unlucky 2nd not getting a run until the last 1/2F and flying home…He duly won next time out at Newcastle where the straight track and surface clearly played to his strengths as his hold up style requires that little bit of luck and has a quick burst of speed. I left him next time out mainly due to being on Polytrack at Chelmsford and back round a bend and he fell out the stalls losing many lengths but made up rapid ground again near the finish to be a close up 4th over 6F. Tonight back over 7F on the straight track at Newcastle off a mark of 62 with Kevin Stott keeping the ride (Rode the last twice) I think he has a ton in hand and even with a slow start and having to come through or around horses its well within his compass on this track….Of the others none of them have won on tapeta and the only conceivable danger to my eye is Napolean Solo who ran a good 2nd at Wolves over 6F a year ago off 67 on his only start on Tapeta, and is off a 4lb lower mark today but I would be dissapointed if “The Rock” couldn’t take care of him on his current mark and at 4.9 had a decent bet

    Cheers
    Steve

    1. Hi Steve I have RW..top of my ratings by quite a bit…..Only worry on my draw stats is stall is 0%….but that clear is well worth a bet,

      Cheers Steve BOL.

      1. Hi Tony

        Yes I noticed that 0% draw but really I can’t see how its a disadvantage he will be held up regardless and be will be using his turn of foot at the end and the track is straight…I still don’t think there has been enough races at Newcastle to say there is a draw bias and winners have been spread across the draw with stalls 1, 9 & 12 coming out best at present with 4 & 3 winners respectively…Think its just an anomally and hopefully that will be broken today 🙂

      1. Superb Steve, when I saw how much thought you had put into that one I ended up having a fair little bit on him! Super stuff (and I was trying to make up for not having as much on a couple of Russell’s winners earlier as I should have! Brilliant. Go team RTP!

    1. Glad someone was on- yep Bet365 paid me out at 5s with that new offer – never in doubt from moment tapes went up to my eye – always tanking through that and sat in perfect position, only q was the hurdles really! Nice when they do it like that – he has plenty in hand I think- always wish you’d had more on!

      1. Hi Josh

        Well done again completely missed it with writing my piece and looking at Dundalk tonight top analysis

  7. Looking at Dundalk this evening only 3 races & 3 horses are worthy of mention and they are as follows

    8.05 Dundalk – Dougan 2.76 (Dutch Art 13 runs,3 wins,6 places) Drawn 1 – 9.29%
    8.35 Dundalk – Mighty Legend 2.9 (Sharmadal 23 runs ,7 wins,13 places) Drawn 5 – 8.87%
    9.05 Dundalk – Bittern 14.5 (New Approach 5 runs, 2 wins 3 places) Drawn 1 – 11.51%

    Just watched Ready win the 3.50 at Newcastle meaning the sire Elnadim has now a perfect record of 3 runs 3 wins on the Track / Surface with 3 different horses and 3 different distances 7F, 1M & !M 2F. One of those horses runs again in the 6.20pm Eastern Dragon available at 14.5 over 1M has to be worth a tickle….

    Cheers
    Steve

    1. I missed that Steve,,,,,, I have it 3rd in my ratings…but a close 3rd…..I think I can still get 10s.

      Cheers. nibble it is.

    2. Hi Steve, I’ve took 10/1…the 2 close ahead in ratings are 1stPlanetaria, 2nd Mont Ras, but their draw is not as good///The 2 plum draws are for
      Miss Van Gogh 28.6% and Lawyer 19.2%.
      Eastern Dragon is 12.5%.

      It’ll be interesting though.

      I had Ready top rated…..but no bet on it.

      1. Hi Tony

        I should have pointed out that its Betfair odds 13.0 trading at present….I always post up exchange odds
        nethertheless seems a value bet even at 10/1 with that sire stat

    1. Yes, thank you Steve also. I have to say that after your very confident write up you couldn’t fail to back it. Thanks again.

  8. Cheers guys that went perfectly to plan jumped great settled lovely and a gentle ride from a top jock on a well handicapped horse….Glad you all had a piece nice to chip in with a winner

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