FREE DAILY POST: 03/11/16 (COMPLETE)

complete…Stats Angles Horses x2… +jumps angles …

Sumkindofking lived up to his name and while only returned around 2/1 after R4 (Fry pulling his out maybe a tip in itself) team RacingtoProfit was in full flow with that one- it had everything, a TTP stat from me, a whisper from a reliable source and a pointer from a respected racing publication – hopefully everyone had a nibble at 9/2, 4/1.

A quick mention about a Flat horse- what are they I hear you ask- maybe the sprint handicap ‘eye catchers’ approach is one to dabble in next season. Horsforth went in the tracker 7 runs ago (staying on 3rd,first start for connections who do well with fillies/mares) – 7 starts after entering the ‘notebook’ she has won 3 of them at 20/1,5/1 and 8/1 sp (that one today). Super. A few ‘sprint test tips’ did likewise – Fast Act and Handsome Dude I think it was both going in at 25s within 3 starts of when they were ‘tipped’ They all had one thing in common – none of them carried my money! Doh. Much to ponder…

Back to the jumpers…still no rain, still no Venetia Williams horses, and small fields a plenty. TTP Jumps had another good day, with winners at 5/1, 2/1 and 12/1. I can’t quite believe the start those stats have made, but I won’t keep banging on about it. I assume if you wanted to take a 7 day free trial you would have done by now… (over +60 points now in just over 5 weeks…)

***

TIPS

None. No races of great interest for me.

 

JUMPS ANGLES 

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio

Hurdle

3.45 Newbury: The Gipper NR (Williams,60+ days)

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

1.05 Market RasenCosmic Statesmen – 9/2 UP 10/1 (what idiot said that favourite was a silly price at 2/1?? Oh, it was me. He did that well in the end, well backed! This one drifted like a barge which said it all as I thought it might,clearly I was hoping he would go the other way- not fit. Got that one a bit wrong!)  he looks the most interesting in this race and I have had a little nibble at this price- the market may well guide and any drift coud spell danger given the time he has had off the track. BUT- Neil King has run 10 jumps handicap debutants (ignores flat handicaps as with this one) at this track in the last 5 years and three of them have won. Decent. He is also in cracking form – 4/14,5 places last 30 days, 2/5 in the last 14 days. He has a solid record with horses returning after a break of 60+ days alo but having dug a bit deeper a possibly little micro angle emerges… Neil King / Handicap Hurdles/ Class 4 / 60 days off or more / CLASS 4 Only…. 20 bets / 6 wins / 9 places / +15 points, lovely. Put that in your trackers – and if someone could post any qualifiers that would be great- many eyes and all that 🙂 (also,my two HRB accounts are both a bit full!) That one may or may not chip in with some profit over time. This horse ran credibly for old connections in non handicap hurdles and clearly likes a sound surface. He was in ok form on the AW when last seen also. He is undoubtedly the most interesting horse in this race, given his unexposed profile. IF fit, he is going to go very close here. The jockey is experienced enough. And the fav – blimey, give your head a rattle if you are backing him at 7/4- yes a repeat of his last 2 runs may be enough, but he looks a monkey and this is a hands and heels race- Dickie or Richie M couldn’t get this one home so we shall see. He looks worth taking on at that price to my eyes. 

 

6.25 Chelmsford- Erhaaf – 7/1 | 6/1 – 3rd ran well, unlucky not to win. Damn. This one looks of some interest at the price to me- well he has a lot of trainer ‘stattage’ supporting his case – This is the first start for the yard and he is 3/10,7 places with new recruits in his career to date, he is also 5/17,6 places with horses on second start in a handicaps and he is 3/11,4 places all runners  at the track in the last year. His record with those returning 60+ days is also decent – 7/33,19 places all runners and an impressive 4/16,10 places with such runners here in handicaps. He had a winner yesterday and the horse won a CD maiden on his first start, so handles the track no problem. All in all,give those stats, I thought this price looked a bit tempting- could even go EW if you wanted. I suspect he may be backed but we shall see. Solid. 

 

***

That is all for today. If you are using the AW stats pack feel free to post up any horses of interest on here if you so wish.

Good luck with your bets

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. Two for me tomorrow. Firstly Tap Night looks a massive price in the 13:50 at Musselburgh tomorrow. Has a record of 3 1sts and a 2nd from 5 starts over hurdles off a break of 60+ days. Is now 2 lbs lower than his win at the course last year. Is 2/4 in Class 3 hurdles and 2/4 in November. Jockey and trainer are 2/7 at the track over Handicap hurdles in the past 12 months (which considering she has a had a poor year should be upgraded). Whilst most of his wins are over soft he did beat Captain Conan back in his novice days in a grade 2 on Good ground so I dont think it will be an issue. (or an excuse at least)

    The other bet is definitely more speculative however I want to have a small e/w bet on Teak in the 1:30 at Newbury. Known much more as a flat horse he has a solid 2/3 record over 3m1f+ hurdles. He is extremely well handicapped with his last win off 7lbs higher. I think he has had some sort of excuses for each of his last 4 hurdle runs since whether it was the break, trip or wrong headgear). The key here is the return of cheekpieces which have been missing for most of this season (2/5, 3 places over hurdles and 5/21, 9 places in all). Ian Williams have been firing them in lately. As an added bonus he is one of only 2 horses to have won on good/firm over hurdles which given there is no rain planned is not a bad back up to have if firm appears in the going like it did today.

  2. What an absolutely disgraceful decision from the Kempton Park stewards in the 7:55 race, should have been reversed.

    1. yep I tent to agree with you Kevin – was getting excited with my 9/1 wager there – win only! One bump – fair enough – but he bumped him three times, AND proceeded to come over for duration of the straight. Poor horse bless him- isn’t one who looks up for a scrap and has to be delivered late by looks of things, bit of a worrier- and i suspect all that put his off come the end. Winner maybe more game but somewhat physically bullied him out of that. tricky one. If in france or states then we would be celebrating, albeit their rules too strict for me, in general. But, that could have easily been overturned.

      1. Could have and should have been I think Josh, looked to me as if there was 4 bumps which started almost 2f out and continued right to the line as you say one bump fair enough, 2nd bump ok do something to stop it but Havlin doesn’t and then hits WH twice more and almost drives SS into the rail, shocking decision. Maybe Queally could have been stronger, but hard to see what more he could have done while being pushed left. France definitely reversed. Was just thinking if it was here in Ireland it probably wouldn’t even have been looked at. Frustrating when its taken like that, got on at 13/2.

    2. Hi Kevin, my picture was wonky, and I was listening instead to the sound report only. before being cut off!!! ?…..The race reader commented how Havlin was for the stewards….. Errrr! Nawt. They don’t want any distractions whilst quaffing their champers… It’s just another phoney example of English stewardship.

  3. One to look for on Thursday, Cristal De Sienne, 4.15 NB, expected to go well, I got 6/1, still 11/2 about.

    I had a few quid on Tap Night at 16/1 but with only 6 runners at present each way prospects will dim with a non runner.

    1. Could be another Tom George one, Whittington’s also a TTP bumper qualifier, albeit small sample. Had a nibble at 11/2. Good record 1st time out horses also,and he is just hitting good form. Hopefully run nice race albeit something may out sprint him if is a crawl.

      As an aside…Russell…who has been in and other for a while. Had a chat with some twitter folk just now and apparently she has had her main Hill gallop relayed after washed away a while back. That may or may not explain plenty. Could see improved form from yard soon..,

    2. Some notes on Cristal De Sienne from Mark Howard’s OJA. Horse was in the yard last season but was a bit weak, but has physically filled out over the spring/summer. Looks to have a bit of quality, is an athlete, always worked well and more importantly shows a lot of speed. Certainly worth a punt at the price.

      Chris R.

  4. Wont see many winning as comfortably as Toms today josh,if early season form continues could be another bumper(excuse pun) year following his chasers specially,with the TTP we are getting spoiled,not having to do any digging,might have to start doing a bit of greyhound research soon

    1. haha, you could always ignore my daily posts and just use the guide- for the digging feeling! Hopefully a good starting point and gives you some time to look at the horses in more depth, albeit suspect you definitely trust the stats first and foremost… if you start on the greyhounds, let us know how you get on!! There is the AW on which to do the digging also.

  5. Hi Josh / All

    Dissapointing at Kempton this evening 1 x 2nd, 2 x 3rds, 2 x 5ths 2 x 0 & 1 x NR although the 2nd as already mentioned was very unfortunate…Hopefully better to come at Chelmsford tomorrow

    Main Selections

    4.40 – Not Now Mum 17.0 (Dutch Art 5 runs, 1 win, 2 places) Drawn 9 – 7.04%
    5.15 – Acertwo 3.0 (Approve 8 runs, 3 wins, 5 places) Drawn 7 – 9.8%
    5.50 – Fort Bastion 2.25 (Lawman 2 runs, 1 win, 2 places) Drawn 1 – 6.78%
    6.25 – Erhaaf 9.0 (Street Sense 1 run,1 win,1 place) Drawn 6 – 14.43%
    7.00 – Logicana 13.0 (Ifraaj 7 runs, 2 wins, 4 places) Drawn 4 – 14.29%
    7.30 – Alejandro 5.50 (Dark Angel 2 runs, 1 win, 2 places) Drawn 3 – 17.24%
    8.00 – Mutadel 4.50 (Exceed & Excel 5 runs, 1 win, 3 places) Drawn 5 – 7.14%

    Stallions of Interest –

    4.40 – Four Candles (Lilboune Lad 8,1,4) 2 – 12.71%
    5.15 – Newz Watch (Harbour Watch 2,1,1) 3 – 10.48%
    5.15 – Dangerous End (Monsieur Bond 11,3,4) 5 – 11.71%
    5.50 – Brasted (Footstepsinthesand 14,3,9) 4 – 15.25%
    5.50 – Regal Dan (Dark Angel 5,1,2) 7 – 6.0%
    6.25 – Manison (Equiano 5,1,3) 5 – 9.95%
    7.30 – Firm Decisions (Captain Rio 1,1,1) 12 – 6.67%
    7.30 – Captain Revelation (Captain Rio 1,1,1) 7 – 6.0%

    Good Luck All
    Cheers
    Steve

  6. morning Josh,off-topic just rejoined ,says im logged in as a member,but when i try and access the members area sends me back to sign-up page please help.

    1. Morning… yep can see you have signed up again, cheers – with the new 7 day trial the only bit you shouldn’t be able to access is the ‘Exclusive Downloads’ bit which shouldn’t actually appear until first payment received again – when logged in you should be able to access today’s members post etc….

      Is there a chance you have different log in details – password maybe- than when you first joined and then cancelled? Saved in your lap top maybe. Just trying to think why you wouldn’t be able to get in.

      Can discuss further over email if problems persist, will sort it out eventually… info@racingtoprofit.co.uk
      If needs be you can email me your password and I will pretend to be you from my end and see what is going on. Thankfully, touch wood, log in problems have been rare..

  7. Cristal de sienna further info trainer quote in Weekender if I was punter I’d probably back him first time out Make of that as you will ? Regards Dave

    1. cheers Dave, much appreciated. I am a punter and I have backed him!! Let’s hope trainer is right, seems to have a lot going for him- stats/trainer form/trainer views/expert Mark Howards view. Was certainly worth a go at his price.

  8. I seem to have been the first of many to be interested in Crystal De Sienne. The price is holding up at present and has each way value maybe?

    I don’t have much else today. Clapton, 3.45 Nb, is fancied to go well but is only 7/2 now.

    Good luck

    1. Hi sorry, just seen this – firstly to clarify there is no promise from me to post the qualifiers as yet- I may as and when, but if you don’t see anything don’t assume I have looked through card!

      And yep, as Mike says below. I know the intros to my reports are rather boring at times- but I would like to think it is all clear enough – as is generally the case with my reports the main focus is handicaps… He may bolt up after all this! (looks like running for a mark??)
      Josh

      1. Banta Bay 4th finished weekly after being prominent until the last few yards. Pity I did a wee ew at 66/1.

        Josh you were right, DNQ

        Mike

        1. Ah shame couldnt grab a place for you…keep an eye on him, dare say he may qualify against stats at some point and that may have been his best run! Prob got some weak winter handicaps in him.

  9. Hi Martin
    I asked the same question from Josh and here is his reply.
    Nope he doesn’t qualify as that is a maiden race. ALL stats, bar those
    three in the ‘general race types’ – maiden/1st time 2 year
    old/listed|group – are for handicaps only, and ‘standard handicaps’ at
    that – ie not nursery handicaps (ie race 2) or maiden handicaps etc. if
    race 1 was a handicap he would qualify.
    Hope this helps
    Mike

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