Sumkindofking lived up to his name and while only returned around 2/1 after R4 (Fry pulling his out maybe a tip in itself) team RacingtoProfit was in full flow with that one- it had everything, a TTP stat from me, a whisper from a reliable source and a pointer from a respected racing publication – hopefully everyone had a nibble at 9/2, 4/1.
A quick mention about a Flat horse- what are they I hear you ask- maybe the sprint handicap ‘eye catchers’ approach is one to dabble in next season. Horsforth went in the tracker 7 runs ago (staying on 3rd,first start for connections who do well with fillies/mares) – 7 starts after entering the ‘notebook’ she has won 3 of them at 20/1,5/1 and 8/1 sp (that one today). Super. A few ‘sprint test tips’ did likewise – Fast Act and Handsome Dude I think it was both going in at 25s within 3 starts of when they were ‘tipped’ They all had one thing in common – none of them carried my money! Doh. Much to ponder…
Back to the jumpers…still no rain, still no Venetia Williams horses, and small fields a plenty. TTP Jumps had another good day, with winners at 5/1, 2/1 and 12/1. I can’t quite believe the start those stats have made, but I won’t keep banging on about it. I assume if you wanted to take a 7 day free trial you would have done by now… (over +60 points now in just over 5 weeks…)
None. No races of great interest for me.
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio
3.45 Newbury: The Gipper NR (Williams,60+ days)
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
1.05 Market Rasen – Cosmic Statesmen – 9/2 –UP 10/1 (what idiot said that favourite was a silly price at 2/1?? Oh, it was me. He did that well in the end, well backed! This one drifted like a barge which said it all as I thought it might,clearly I was hoping he would go the other way- not fit. Got that one a bit wrong!) he looks the most interesting in this race and I have had a little nibble at this price- the market may well guide and any drift coud spell danger given the time he has had off the track. BUT- Neil King has run 10 jumps handicap debutants (ignores flat handicaps as with this one) at this track in the last 5 years and three of them have won. Decent. He is also in cracking form – 4/14,5 places last 30 days, 2/5 in the last 14 days. He has a solid record with horses returning after a break of 60+ days alo but having dug a bit deeper a possibly little micro angle emerges… Neil King / Handicap Hurdles/ Class 4 / 60 days off or more / CLASS 4 Only…. 20 bets / 6 wins / 9 places / +15 points, lovely. Put that in your trackers – and if someone could post any qualifiers that would be great- many eyes and all that 🙂 (also,my two HRB accounts are both a bit full!) That one may or may not chip in with some profit over time. This horse ran credibly for old connections in non handicap hurdles and clearly likes a sound surface. He was in ok form on the AW when last seen also. He is undoubtedly the most interesting horse in this race, given his unexposed profile. IF fit, he is going to go very close here. The jockey is experienced enough. And the fav – blimey, give your head a rattle if you are backing him at 7/4- yes a repeat of his last 2 runs may be enough, but he looks a monkey and this is a hands and heels race- Dickie or Richie M couldn’t get this one home so we shall see. He looks worth taking on at that price to my eyes.
6.25 Chelmsford- Erhaaf – 7/1 | 6/1 – 3rd ran well, unlucky not to win. Damn. This one looks of some interest at the price to me- well he has a lot of trainer ‘stattage’ supporting his case – This is the first start for the yard and he is 3/10,7 places with new recruits in his career to date, he is also 5/17,6 places with horses on second start in a handicaps and he is 3/11,4 places all runners at the track in the last year. His record with those returning 60+ days is also decent – 7/33,19 places all runners and an impressive 4/16,10 places with such runners here in handicaps. He had a winner yesterday and the horse won a CD maiden on his first start, so handles the track no problem. All in all,give those stats, I thought this price looked a bit tempting- could even go EW if you wanted. I suspect he may be backed but we shall see. Solid.
That is all for today. If you are using the AW stats pack feel free to post up any horses of interest on here if you so wish.
Good luck with your bets