NOTE on SATURDAY… just to say there won’t be any trends this weekend… Ascot clearly has an OK card 🙂 But they are all non handicaps bar one, and that is a fairly new race I believe with no trends. There is potentially an OK C3 looking chase at Market Rasen and that is where my attention will be if a good field size etc!
TIPS
4.25 Fakenham
Princeton Royale – 1 point win – 11/2 (bet365/SkyB/PP) 5/1 (general) 2nd, 3/1Â *
*damn, 1/2 L second  , Keltus stayed on well enough there in the end, I think we headed him close to line again but fought back. No excuses. Got the easy lead, comfortably beat SP. That’s how it is going at the moment.
At the prices he is the one that jumps of the page to me here. I think he is the only one in here without a real question to answer. He is young, progressive, in form, fit, no problems left handed/tight tracks and, given his hurdles form in particular, I have no concerns/excuses over stamina. And the trainer does well here in handicap chases (he is a stats qualifier from TTP) He is also second in HRB ratings (behind workbench) and top on geegeez speed figures. He can race prominently, but doesn’t have to, and the visor returns, which is a positive given the blinkers may not have worked LTO. The fact they pitched him in that Market Rasen race gives some indication of what they think of him. And, he ran well there (a good 5L ahead of Wadswick Court). He may not have been good enough, may not have responded to the headgear, or needs further. He won a couple of beginners/novice chases around Cartmel, the first of which has produced winners. While he has recent ‘summer form’ I am happy to take everything else on. All in all, he looks solid at 11/2 to me. I have vowed to bet 1 points from now on until I am back in tipping form but if I was putting this one up a few months back he would have had 1.5-2 points on I think. But, I am still a bit chilly (some would say sub zero) when I put a staking amount next to a horse in this section so I will hold fire. Baring accidents I struggle to see him being far away here..
Of The Rest…
Dangers?….well if certain horses do certain things in this (like prove stamina) then a few would have a chance. Wiesentraum – well it would be good to see him return to winning ways. He has plenty of trainer/jockey stats in his favour but as a horse I can’t have him at 5s. That isn’t overly generous given I think there are real concerns as to what ability remains , his age, and whether he may need this run. Has won fresh but not in a long time (1/6 after long breaks) At his very best he would have a great chance. If he were 10s, then maybe 1/2 a point, but not at 5s. I can live with him beating me I think given his price in context of his recent profile.
Keltus – 5/2 is a silly price really given that he has a big stamina question for me and his decent form has been on stiff tracks. His last two runs don’t suggest he is well handicapped. Maybe he will stay- there is a hurdle run at Haydock in heavy which could give some promise- but you do not want any stamina questions/doubts at 5/2 for me. Happy to leave on that basis alone. WorkBench – well he was primed for his race LTO which he has now won a few times. He steps up by around 1 mile here. I have yet to see evidence that he has stamina for a test like this. While the track is fairly sharp you still need to be able to stay. He is usually held up a bit as well which is dangerous here if something gets into a rhythm on the front end. (he is 0/19,6 places going LH as well,albeit form at Fontwell suggests may just be one of those things) Wadswick Court is 0/6, 1p on goodm 0/10,2p OR 131+ and more importantly also has stamina questions. He was beaten well enough by the selection at MR LTO also and I see no reason for that to be overturned. The final two could both need the run I think- Gallery Exhibition and Noble Legend. Kim Bailey usually has them ready but a few times this season they have faded badly and maybe the dry weather has affected hard work at home or something. (finger in the air there) yard are 0/11 1 place last 14 days. This one can be at the back also, and can like to take the odd fence with him. If fully tuned up not dismissed but questions there. Noble Legend also has stamina questions, to go along with fitness ones. He has needed his first start in recent seasons.
PACE…Well Princeton Royale can make all and if there is no pace pressure I hope they do just that. Keltus and Noble Legend like to get on with it also- but both may be ridden to get the trip and the latter one will fade at some point. PR doesn’t have to lead and can sit behind and track if needs be. Fingers crossed he doesn’t go three wide the whole way. Relying on the jockeys brain there.
So, this is a straight forward one to my eye and sometimes simple is best. There could be more to come from him over fences , he has no fitness concerns, or well being, or form and most importantly in this field will stay. He should be getting involved here and should be around 3s I think, not 11/2.
***
STATS/ANGLES OF INTERESTÂ
None today. Nothing on stats standing out and I can’t bring myself to look through the flat cards.
JUMPS ANGLES
Sept/Oct Trainers
2.25 Winc – Moonday Sun (ticks extreme weight stats)
Handicap Hurdle/Chase PortfolioÂ
Chase
3.00 Winc – Closest Friend (hnc c debut)
Post complete.
19 Responses
Been a pretty good week all round so far,the stats and angles flying at the moment,its always nice heading into the weekend knowing you can go quiet on sat if you want,having a bet in the 3.10 haydock on Cappo Rosso for 14/1 generally,might be my last flat bet
I’m just worried that he likes really fast going and there will be rain?
What do you think?
The going is quick by the time of the last race, da Capo it is!
I am in my last time winner FATHER BERTIE
I really only follow the dascombe stable at haydock because of the incredible record there,Chris,have had some big priced winners this year backing them blind,couldn’t really back him on recent form anyway
My night ended on a real high,Work winning at 9/1 and Fois Gras 14/1,picked from my simple stats
A qualifier for tomorrow
6.20 Newcastle – Tamayef 3.5
Josey Gordon for Hugo Palmer 14 rides 7 winners 10 places – 50% win SR, 71.43% place SR
Last 5 qualifiers for Josey has seen 4 x 2nds and a 4th hopefully a change of luck tomorrow
Cheers
Steve
Well done with Fois Gras last night, between you and Paul you had that one nailed – great little trainer micro angle – and that has given me a few ideas to try out on AW stats I will pull together for winter- that jockey/trainer/class/track- could throw up some decent ones, we shall see. GL today.
Hi Steve….left bets on last night as I had to go visiting…..Great picks as usual.
Josie should have won the race she was 4th placed in…The winner done a runner, got about 12 lengths clear. She was the only one who spotted the move, but in chasing down the winner, let 2 slip by close to the line.. She’s a great little jockey.
I’ll send my ratings comparison on later for last night, it looks promising too.
Cheers mate..GL today.
Yes, Will go along with Josh on that one Steve. Very well done mate, paid out at 18.78 on BFSP. It never ceases to amaze me the quality of advice available on this blog generally. If there is a more informed blog anywhere on the internet will someone please tell me where? Absolutely brilliant gentlemen and a big thanks to all.
Thanks guys much appreciated 🙂
Josh, I see that you have jumped onto my NH spot from last night on the jumps blog, Princeton Royale at Fakenham. Based upon current form for both of us it is either a turning point or the continuation of an unsuccessful period? Still, the horse does not know we have both tipped it!
Apart from the above, Im IN Charge and Mango Chutney I am waiting for Ascot tomorrow.
Good luck.
yep, he did rather stand out when having a brief look at race and following closer inspection. I had a small tickle before reading your comment mind but it certainly boosted confidence. And since topped up a bit more after looking at it a bit closer. Albeit, as you say, given our form, maybe we should be heading to the lay button! who knows, but if you back this type consistently, and if I have the same eyes in that i had for Owen Na View and Carrigdhoun, we will be ok in the long run – i hope!
Yep I see some money has come for Im in Charge – the weight rise may not stop him – he could handle good to firm better than others- the rise in class would be a question against three more interesting ones. I just had 1/2 on Gentleman Jon as per TTP post but wasn’t a race I wanted to go mad in. I see some money has come though and hope you got on at 7s>.
-ignore that rise in class point- a bit irrelevant having looked again!! Good luck, been well backed.
fingers crossed!
Fakenham latest: market negatives
4.25 5 Wadswick Court 6-1 (from 7-2), 1 Gallery Exhibition 14-1 (from 8)
5.00 1 Ansaab 14-1 (from 9)
By Jack Haynes, live from Fakenham 13 mins ago
Good run from the tip but I just question that can you really try and make all over 3m plus tho that race had an extra furlong added to it I believe
yea you can do- he looks a bit tricky and way he fought on suggested wasn’t stamina- think just a better horse got him in the end. Front is best place to be if no pace pressure- he was able to go a pace he wanted and measure his fences. Stayed 25f well at plumton over hurdles, my judgement was that 11/2 was worth a stab and was overpriced. The Snowden horse pretty much made all in 3.35 Wincanton – that track position and slick jumping winning it for him, as an example.
Hi Josh
I thought you called it pretty well he got them all of the bridle bar Keltus and for a brief moment almost got back up…Mr Nicholls has got most of what he is running at the top of their game and that was probably the difference in the end a solid pick at a decent price…..next time
yep, reading them ok now – shame I didn’t have the balls to tip Owen Na View or Carrigdhoun – suppose that is what sours the mood and would have improved things a bit. I will keep chipping away on that front and hope it turns around soon.
Hi Josh / All
No luck with the stallions at Chelmsford last evening with 6 losers although 3 of those were 2nd …Cliffs of Cape ran a lovely first race and with a clear run I’m sure he would of got there but definitely one to take away from the meeting and Alejandro was caught on the line so almost a profitable night but not quite. For spreadsheet & staking purposes we have £1043.70 from the original £1000 to take into this evening and the first stake will be £20.88 (i:e 2%)
2 x AW meetings this evening and the meeting at Dundalk (polytrack) will be staked qualifiers, I have also gone through Newcastle (tapeta) and listed selections but won’t be including these in the spreadsheet as still finding tapeta unpredictable but for the first time tonight I will also be using draw stats at Newcastle to see if this helps with the consistency.
First up “Main Selections” Dundalk (ps No footnote for Dundalk as too many to include)
7F Top Draw – 3,1,5,8,4
5.25 Dundalk – Slaney Street 5.7 (Intense Focus 27 runners,3 winners,6 places) Drawn 4
7F Top Draw – 3,1,5,8,4
6.00 Dundalk – Desert Dancer 12.5 (Kheylef 45 runners, 6 winners, 17 places) Drawn 4
7F Top Draw – 3,1,5,8,4
6.35 No Selection
1M Top Draw – 5,4,3,2,1
7.05 Strada Di Carsoli 7.8 (Showcasing 5 runners, 1 winner, 3 places) Drawn 3
1M4F Top Draw – 1,2,14,11,4
7.35 Park Row 9.4 (Where or When 3 runners, 1 win, 1 place) Drawn 2
1M 21/2F Top Draw – 1,4,6,2,7
8.05 Tennesee Wildcat 10.0 (Kheylef 25 runners, 3 winners, 7 places) Drawn 2
1M 21/2F Top Draw – 1,4,6,2,7
8.35 Reddot Dancer 5.2 (Danehill Dancer 47 runners, 6 winners, 9 places) Drawn 7
1m 21/2F Top Draw – 1,4,6,2,7
9.05 Royal Roslea 8.0 (Royal Applause 18 runners, 3 winners, 6 places) Drawn 6
Now for Newcastle only 4 selections mainly due to draw & stallion performance not combining although I have gone against the draw in the 5.50 as only 2 runners have come from this stall and the sire is superb on Tapeta please see footnote at end for Sires left out.
1M 4F Top Draw – 4,9,8,10,5
5.50 Fastnet Blast 7.2 (Fastnet Rock 2 runs, 1 win, 2 places) Drawn 12
1M Top Draw – 5,3,7,6,10
6.20 Tamayef 3.4 (Sir Prancelot 1 run, 1 win, 1 place) Drawn 3
7F Top Draw – 12,5,9,1,4
6.50 No Selection
6F Top Draw – 8,5,11,6,3
7.20 No Selection
6F Top Draw – 8,5,11,6,3
7.50 Yosemite 10.5 (Makfi 4 runs, 2 wins, 3 places) Drawn 3
Please note Makfi tapeta form taken from Wolves
1M Top Draw – 5,3,7,6,10
8.20 Heartstone 6.2 (Fastnet Rock 3 runs, 0 wins, 1 place) Drawn 6
1M Top Draw – 5,3,7,6,10
8.50 No Selection
7F Top Draw – 12,5,9,1,4
9.20 No Selection
Footnote – Stallions of interest the following again have been left out due to draw and / or other selection in race:
6.20 Temerity (Zoffany 3,1,2)
6.50 Cool Strutter (Kodiac 2,1,1)
7.20 Manafee Bay (Royal Applause 3,1,1)
7.20 Classic Flyer (Stimulation 3,1,2)
7.20 Gypsy Major (Major Cadeaux 3,2,3)
8.20 Totally Magic (Captain Rio 1,1,1)
9.20 Scarpach (Pastoral Pursuits 1,0,1)
Cheers
Steve