NOTE on SATURDAY… just to say there won’t be any trends this weekend… Ascot clearly has an OK card 🙂 But they are all non handicaps bar one, and that is a fairly new race I believe with no trends. There is potentially an OK C3 looking chase at Market Rasen and that is where my attention will be if a good field size etc!
Princeton Royale – 1 point win – 11/2 (bet365/SkyB/PP) 5/1 (general) 2nd, 3/1 *
*damn, 1/2 L second , Keltus stayed on well enough there in the end, I think we headed him close to line again but fought back. No excuses. Got the easy lead, comfortably beat SP. That’s how it is going at the moment.
At the prices he is the one that jumps of the page to me here. I think he is the only one in here without a real question to answer. He is young, progressive, in form, fit, no problems left handed/tight tracks and, given his hurdles form in particular, I have no concerns/excuses over stamina. And the trainer does well here in handicap chases (he is a stats qualifier from TTP) He is also second in HRB ratings (behind workbench) and top on geegeez speed figures. He can race prominently, but doesn’t have to, and the visor returns, which is a positive given the blinkers may not have worked LTO. The fact they pitched him in that Market Rasen race gives some indication of what they think of him. And, he ran well there (a good 5L ahead of Wadswick Court). He may not have been good enough, may not have responded to the headgear, or needs further. He won a couple of beginners/novice chases around Cartmel, the first of which has produced winners. While he has recent ‘summer form’ I am happy to take everything else on. All in all, he looks solid at 11/2 to me. I have vowed to bet 1 points from now on until I am back in tipping form but if I was putting this one up a few months back he would have had 1.5-2 points on I think. But, I am still a bit chilly (some would say sub zero) when I put a staking amount next to a horse in this section so I will hold fire. Baring accidents I struggle to see him being far away here..
Of The Rest…
Dangers?….well if certain horses do certain things in this (like prove stamina) then a few would have a chance. Wiesentraum – well it would be good to see him return to winning ways. He has plenty of trainer/jockey stats in his favour but as a horse I can’t have him at 5s. That isn’t overly generous given I think there are real concerns as to what ability remains , his age, and whether he may need this run. Has won fresh but not in a long time (1/6 after long breaks) At his very best he would have a great chance. If he were 10s, then maybe 1/2 a point, but not at 5s. I can live with him beating me I think given his price in context of his recent profile.
Keltus – 5/2 is a silly price really given that he has a big stamina question for me and his decent form has been on stiff tracks. His last two runs don’t suggest he is well handicapped. Maybe he will stay- there is a hurdle run at Haydock in heavy which could give some promise- but you do not want any stamina questions/doubts at 5/2 for me. Happy to leave on that basis alone. WorkBench – well he was primed for his race LTO which he has now won a few times. He steps up by around 1 mile here. I have yet to see evidence that he has stamina for a test like this. While the track is fairly sharp you still need to be able to stay. He is usually held up a bit as well which is dangerous here if something gets into a rhythm on the front end. (he is 0/19,6 places going LH as well,albeit form at Fontwell suggests may just be one of those things) Wadswick Court is 0/6, 1p on goodm 0/10,2p OR 131+ and more importantly also has stamina questions. He was beaten well enough by the selection at MR LTO also and I see no reason for that to be overturned. The final two could both need the run I think- Gallery Exhibition and Noble Legend. Kim Bailey usually has them ready but a few times this season they have faded badly and maybe the dry weather has affected hard work at home or something. (finger in the air there) yard are 0/11 1 place last 14 days. This one can be at the back also, and can like to take the odd fence with him. If fully tuned up not dismissed but questions there. Noble Legend also has stamina questions, to go along with fitness ones. He has needed his first start in recent seasons.
PACE…Well Princeton Royale can make all and if there is no pace pressure I hope they do just that. Keltus and Noble Legend like to get on with it also- but both may be ridden to get the trip and the latter one will fade at some point. PR doesn’t have to lead and can sit behind and track if needs be. Fingers crossed he doesn’t go three wide the whole way. Relying on the jockeys brain there.
So, this is a straight forward one to my eye and sometimes simple is best. There could be more to come from him over fences , he has no fitness concerns, or well being, or form and most importantly in this field will stay. He should be getting involved here and should be around 3s I think, not 11/2.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
None today. Nothing on stats standing out and I can’t bring myself to look through the flat cards.
2.25 Winc – Moonday Sun (ticks extreme weight stats)
Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio
3.00 Winc – Closest Friend (hnc c debut)