TTP Jumps Notes: Mon 03/10/16 (COMPLETE)

To clarify/note the schedule for these notes moving forward:- 

1. Sunday’s notes will be the last free set of notes. From Monday they will be for Members Only. 
2. Members will receive the next day’s qualifiers by no later than 2pm the day before the following day’s racing (unless unforeseen circumstances) for Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday/Friday/Saturday
3. I will endeavour to get Monday’s posts complete on the Sunday but sometimes life can get in the way at a weekend. As a worst case Monday’s post will be complete by 10am at the latest on the morning of racing. 
4. Any posts on a Sunday are a bonus but I will endeavour to post on a Sunday where I can. Of course you do have a copy of the guide the guide to use when you please also. 
5. Where possible I will add my own ‘notes’ to add to your own approach to the horses listed. 
6. I will not be emailing out on a daily basis. Content is delivered via the blog. The new title to look for is… ‘TTP: Jumps Notes: DATE’ . When COMPLETE is in the heading of the post, you know that no further content will be added.

Trainer form explained…

When I mention that a trainer is ‘in form’ I am using the metrics/tools within Geegeez Gold. A trainer who is ‘in form’ in the last 14 days has had 5+ runners, a win strike rate of 20%+ OR a place strike rate of 51% + . When they are ‘in form’ in the last 30 days they have had 10+ runners, same criteria. It is more a positive indication, rather than a negative. If they are not ‘in form’ it doesn’t necessarily mean their string is out of form, albeit I will highlight any stats that may look concerning.

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I will be keeping records of results for all runners so that we can see how they are performing as systems/micro systems. I will post results from Saturday 24th on Tuesday’s post.

Qualifiers + Notes:

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SOUTHWELL

2.40

Steps and Stairs (6/1) (PU) 

PU- the return to this venue appears not to have helped. Maybe the ground is too lively but I think I would rather say his problems are in the mind. He went well early and was travelling fine, before a sudden change of attitude. Not one to trust, clearly. The market was weak as to his chance also. That race was a perfect example of going too quickly – poor poor rides by both Dickie and Nico, killed each other up front with a suicidal battle a long way out. Another winner for Vaughan. He clearly has a fair bit of stamina by the looks of it. Poor jumps over the last two when under no pressure would be a concern but entitled to get better. Let’s hope the trainer can have a double with my other bet on the card so far…

(BONUS stats, novice handicap chases)

Note: Trainer and jockey are 11/49, 21 places all handicap chases, loss to SP of 1.5 points. They are 3/4, 3 places at the track with such runners, including this one three starts ago over CD. Clearly not the most consistent I have no idea what happened two starts ago at Uttox but maybe the lack of headgear (returns here) explains that run LTO- he did run on late. Seems versatile ground wise, maybe wants cut over fences but that isn’t conclusive.

3.40

Lovely Bubbly (10/1 last night, 8s morning) UP 14/1

UP- the drift told the story there it seems, maybe not fit, or not good enough. Unable to build on that OK run when last seen. Strange run really when you watch it as didn’t stop and go backwards, just never really went forwards! But, the handicap mark should come down. 

(handicap hurdles/Micro age + going, if Soft)

Note: Vaughan remains in cracking form in last 14 and 30 days. He is 2/11, 3 places with  handicap hurdlers at the track returning after 60+ days off. This one is lightly races, only second start in handicaps.

4.10

The Tailgater (9/2) (UP 8/1) 

(micro, 90 days)

Note: Jonjo ‘only’ 8/71, 23 places with those making handicap debut. He is 0/16, 7 places with such types at Southwell. He is 4/17, 9 places with handicap hurdlers returning to this track after 60+ days off. 1/4, 2 places in Handicap hurdles here with Coleman up. Jonjo only 3/31, 13 places with handicap hurdlers at the track over this distance.

Panis Angelicus (25/1) (UP 25/1) 

(handicap hurdles, micro going, if soft)

Note: Vaughan in form, as above. Not sure what has gone on last few runs but when a trainer’s horses are in form strange things can happen I suppose! I personally questions whether anything as strange as this given the market suggests 4 in here have a live chance. I think you would be surprised if they all failed, but who knows. Maybe one for the tracker as when he won a few starts ago he was wearing the first time visor. Maybe when they put new headgear on for the first time, blinkers or something, he may do something.

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My View….

Jonjo’s Bonus stats looks rather solid at this track with this type and I have backed Steps and Stairs here, albeit some concern over last couple of runs. Maybe return to this track, and the slight cut in the ground, and the headgear, may see him in better light. Looks an open enough race though. I have had a good EW bet on Lovely Bubbly for what that may be worth. The stats are solid and Vaughan couldn’t be in better form really. The horse is also unexposed. I see no reason not to have a go at that price which is always my main question I suppose- is there a stand out reason why I shouldn’t be backing them… 4.10 – at the moment I haven’t played on either. There are a couple of negative stats with Jonojs that concern me and a couple above him being well backed. But he is unexposed enough and open to improvement. I can’t see why the Vaughan horse would suddenly snap back into form but there is always a fear with ones this price which makes you want to have some small change on, just in case! Maybe that is just me.

Good Luck with whatever you back.

I am looking at adding a ‘polling’ feature to these posts… basically you can anonymously vote for your bet (s) of the day, from the horses listed, including ‘i don’t fancy any of them’ – I thought that may be a bit of fun, and also interesting to see how the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ performs over time with the horse that gets the most votes etc. You may think that is a rubbish idea but I think it is doable and I will give it a go at some point, once I figure out how to do it!

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