4.10 War – No Bet.
I don’t think there is a bet in here for me personally. I think you could give all of them bar the Sherwood horse some sort of chance. My preference, if I had to bet, would be for Ready Token, (WON, touched 7/2 and 4/1. Wish he was 4s this morning, in end made 11/4 look decent enough,albeit market rival fell early) and if he was 4/1 or something I may have put him up. 11/4 could be ok but that is just on the short end for me. I think he will try and lead – he will be up there with Velator in any case- he is a progressive CD winner who is open to more improvement. He has won after similar breaks and I don’t think fitness will be a problem. Velator isn’t getting any quicker and is a bit of a plodder these days. That may be enough but given his profile, against some less exposed sorts, I wouldn’t want to be with him. Follow The Swollow could be anything but clearly is a tricky beast having run out LTO. That was a weak enough chase at Hexham but he hadn’t been asked for his effort at the time. I couldn’t back Benzel at 9/4. That is short enough. He hosed up in a novice handicap chase LTO and I am cautious as to form from those races given the types of horses in them. But, he is open to progress and clearly won’t be a shock winner. It could be that he is just a ‘summer horse’ whereas the Longsdon runner could be a ‘winter horse’ if that makes sense.No Buts would have the ability but has fitness to prove and a liking for a sound surface. He may be one to follow on his next few starts as the trainer’s horses seem to be going well. If he is ready to go he may not be far away.
So, a tricky race I am happy to leave. Analysis wise it would be good to see Ready Token take this. 11/4 is just a tad too skinny for me. You may think it is a decent price.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
- 7.10 Chelm: Jumping Jack 5/1 | 4/1 -(UP Bloody AW racing, one day!) is it just me or is this price a shade too big in here? I was drawn in by the fact his speed figure is the best but given this race has a few in open to further improvement (mainly the Haggas horse but he is short enough) that may not count for much. But, three starts ago at Wolvs he won rather comfortably and is now 8lb higher here. He then ran twice on turf. The first when there was cut, and that may be an excuse albeit he travelled well for a long way. LTO was in a decent little C2 contest. Returned to an artificial surface may seem him in a better light. Trainer is 5/23,9 places those returning within 7 days of last start also. I thought he was worth a second glance anyway. Maybe the Haggas horse will prove to strong but if there were any chinks (too keen, distance, doesn’t take to surface etc) you would like to think this one is next best.
That is the only one of interest today.
2.30 War – Wholestone -(WON, market suggested he meant business, outclassed them) (no ticks against my positive notes. NTD is only 3/31, 13 places in non handicaps here. He remains ‘in form’. Interesting what the market does as I think he would qualify for a mark after this, provided the ‘capper feels he has enough to go on)
Trainer Track Profile: Jumps 2016/17: Daily Jumps Notes
Foundation Man (12/1) WON 12/1>7/1 SP
(all handicaps, micro angles – class + going) (Jonjo 2/15, 2 places last 14 days, before Wednesday’s action)
The Snappy Poet (14/1) (UP– poor bugger, he doesn’t look like a chaser- for his own safety I hope they never try that again,hurdles/flat for him surely. He must school ok at home but that wasn’t fun to watch)
3.40 – Nice Thoughts (9/2)
(micro angle- handicap hurdle debut, Pipe 2/4,4 places such types since 2013- . Pipe is ‘in form’ 4/12, 4 places last 14 days. Trainer jockey combo 2/5, 2 places here in hncp hurdles)
4.10 – Benzel (9/4)
(all handicaps, micro angle- going, ‘good’)
4.45 – Kid Kalanisi (22/1)
(all handicaps, micro angle- 90+ days off at track. Trainer only had one runner last 30 days, hard to know if string are in form or not)
5.40 Chelm – Surfina (16/1<)
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
2.50 Bright: East India / Secular Society (both any odds)
3.25 Bright: Cranwell (any odds) / Rennie Mackintosh (7/1<)
4.00 Bright: Megalala (7/1<)
5.05 Bright: Welsh Inlet (7/1<)