ASCOT: VICTORIA CUP
17 renewals
413 runners, 68 placed horses
TRENDS
Previous Place
- 13/17 Top 5 LTO
- 13/219, 47 places…76% winners…53% runners…69% places
- 15/17 Top 10 LTO
- 11th or worse: 2/82, 6 places…12% winners…20% runners…9% places
Horse Age
- 13/17 Aged 4 or 5
- 17/17 Aged 4-7
- 8+ : 0/34, 3 places
Days Since Run
- Nothing overly significant
Horse Weight
- 14/17 carried 8-13 or less
- 3/17 9-0 or more: 3/155, 26 places…18% winners…38% runners…38% places
- 9-9 + : 0/16, 3 places
Horse Official Rating
- OR 103+ : 0/25, 3 places
- OR 97+ : 2/116, 21 places
Season Runs
- Nothing significant
Odds
- 50/1+ : 0/45, 1 place
***
OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Headgear
- CP: 0/12, 1 place
- Blinkers: 0/24, 3 places
- Visor: 1/16, 1 place
Weight (excl J-Claim)
- 8-2< : 0/34, 3 places
- 9-9+ : 0/22, 3 places
- 9-0+ : 3/165, 26 places
Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –
- Top 3 in weights (ic joints): 0/57, 7 places
- Bottom (inc joint): 0/31, 3 places
Stalls/Draw
Stall
- 26+ : 0/32, 3 places
Position in Stalls
- Widest (not inside): 0/17, 1 place
- 22-26 : 0/30, 4 places
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H -Run (90 days)
- 4+ : 0/31, 3 places
H – Run (career)
- 29+ : 0/107, 8 places
H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)
- 0: 0/14, 0 places
- 25+ : 0/86, 6 places
H- Run (track)
- 12/17 yet to run here…12/150,29 places
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
H-Win (Career).
- 14/17 had 0-3 career wins
- 14/233, 45 places
H-Win (Class)
- 17/17… 0-2 class wins
- 3+ : 0/30, 3 places
Miscellaneous 2
H-Places (Hncp/Non)
- 0: 0/38, 2 places
Jockey Claims
- 7lbs: 0/19, 3 places
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
(LR) Hcap/Non
- Non Handicap: 1/64, 6 places
(LR) Race Class (inc Irish)
- 13/17 ran in C1 or 2 LTO
- 13/265, 51 places
(LR) No. of Runners
- 7 or fewer: 0/35, 1 place
(LR) Odds
- 16/1+ : 2/122, 16 places
(LR) Track
- Newm (Rowley): 5/66, 16 places
- Kempton: 4/47, 10 places
- Leic: 2/12, 4 places
- Newb: 2/38, 9 places
- 1 win: Newm (July)/Dundalk/York/Southwell
- Lingfield: 0/35, 4 places
- Haydock: 0/16, 4 places
- Ascot: 0/18, 2 places
- Ponte: 0/11, 0 places
- Thirsk: 0/20, 0 places
- Donc: 0/35, 5 places
- Wind: 0/11, 1 place
Horses ‘First Ever Run’ Characteristics
1st Run Distance
- 5f: 1/62, 9 places
- 8f + : 0/55, 12 places
1st Run Placing
- 1st: 0/55, 5 places
***
Trainers (of interest)
No trainer has won this more than once yet.
1 win …(of note)
- Meehan/Balding/Coakley/J Hills/Barron/ B Hills/Ellison/ Marnane/ Margarson/ Goldie/ Elsworth/ Bethell /Nicholls
Others
- K A Ryan: 0/15, 1 p
- A Balding: 0/9, 0 p
- R Fahey: 0/12, 3 p
- M Channon: 0/11, 1 p
- E Dunlop: 0/8, 2 p
- M Johnson: 0/6, 0 places
5 Responses
On the prevailing fast ground is there a bias for those drawn high over CD, do you know? I seem to recall that there might be.
7 – 13 – 23 the last 3 runnings on gf from 28/29 runners –
I think it can depend on watering but I have noticed before that one side can ride faster than the other?
Top 8 cdg’s (gf)
2 (0-108) qm 117 6 5 4 3 2 1 LY G D C cdg
Fort Bastion 8-13 99 88 95 90 26 106 106 100 117 112 110
Heaven´s Guest 9-5 91 91 86 96 — 10 108 103 113 108 108
Earth Drummer 9-0 108 71 100 81 84 42 108 108 103 108 106
Outback Traveller 9-2 87 74 72 64 — 100 100 90 112 112 105
Dinkum Diamond 9-5 97 84 81 103 84 — 103 105 103 104 104
Majestic Moon 9-3 86 66 77 87 104 92 104 102 104 97 101
Related 8-11 95 91 103 90 99 33 103 103 105 91 100
Buckstay 9-9 89 85 89 95 102 82 102 95 102 102 100
Hi both, I had a crude look.
So on good and good to firm…
12 winners, 287 runners, 48 places
11/12 drawn 5-23, 11/207,35 places…92% winners…72% runners…73% places
Stalls 1-4 = 1/44, 10 places
12/12 drawn 1-23
24+ = 0/36, 3 places
Now, just Good to Firm…
8 winners
7/8 drawn 1-15 … 7/114, 22 places
16+… 1/80, 10 places
Fair to say I think that the lower half is best on quick ground, and certainly those drawn high may be up against it. Could depend on where the pace is and just about to start looking now.
What a ‘kick-in-teeth’ wake-up call for my One Trick Trainer file that Ascot meeting was:
My top 3
tots Tot 16 Tot 15 Tot 14 T Trainer
56 5 46 5 F Suroor S bin
55 11 43 1 F Varian Roger
53 3 41 9 F Appleby Charlie
1st off – I thought Sign Of A Victory was getting over-hyped – King Bolete was the cdg horse and strong in the market – he became R Varian’s first of the month (One Trick wise) but
Back to the Weekender, I’m sure it was Alistair Whitehouse-Jones ‘Taking Stock’ column pages 2/3 (always worth a read) must have been February/March last year and I think Charlie Appleby must have read it too and taken his advice. After mopping up everything on the AW winter 14/15 he said of Charlie Appleby that he should aim higher.
Well, after a very quiet AW season this time, Appleby fires in the Lincoln winner with his only runner of the meet and now this, 20/1
Some HOT fillies in the race prior to the Victoria Cup 1st 3 capable of Black Type in due course – make a note of Goldie’s for something up north won 3 on bounce May-July last year 1st run for 224dys here!
[Could make a note of Flash Fire’s early notes – 7l’s clear of 3rd – time of the meet race 2nd start = good sign for future?]
Saturday May 7th 2016 – gf
3:40 – EBF Breeders’ Series Fillies’ Handicap
C2 f’s RO +0.24 35dys 8gf Asc PC! +15 Imp’d May16 – XoM C4 drvn h’cap 4th st 19dys 8g Hay Jun15 – TDS – filly
1m, Class 2, £28,012.50
1 Light And Shade 11/2
2 Tutu Nguru 4/1 – +16 Imp’d C2 f’s btn shd nr FoM 28dys 8gf Asc May16 –
3 Margaret’s Mission 8/1 – +14 Imp’d C2 f’s btn <1l 224dys 8gf Asc May16 – mare
9 ran Distances: shd, ¾l, 1½l
TIME 1m 38.56s (fast by 0.24s)
Jockey: Martin Harley
Trainer: James Tate
4:15 – totescoop6 Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap)
XoM +0.25 drw29/26 C2 RO prm gd p 23dys 7gf Asc May16 – xom jt nk 2nd/14 ag' elders +16 Imp'd 7g NwmJ Aug15 – 7R C3 6l's MA 21dys 7gf San Jul15 – 7l's clr o 3rd/8 xom r 2nd st 10dys 6gf Pon Aug14 –
7f, Class 2, £65,362.50
1 Flash Fire 20/1
2 Mutawathea 25/1
3 Buckstay 10/1
4 Dinkum Diamond 33/1
NR: Ghalib (IRE), Mullionheir, Red Avenger (USA)
26 ran Distances: ¾l, nk, 1½l
TIME 1m 25.35s (fast by 0.25s)
Jockey: Adam Kirby
Trainer: Charlie Appleby