It is a new year so I think I am best re-setting results and recording everything properly from the start of 2016.
So, for reference, results up until 3/01/16 were as follows…
Micro Systems (since start Aug 2015) = +86.3 points
TIPS (inc Big Race Previews) (since start Oct 2015) = +58.25 points
Portfolio Total = + 144.55 points
I wont re-cap on results before that, there is a ‘yearly review’ on here somewhere that looked at the ‘tips’ from November 2014 (when blog really got going) to end of September 2015. That yearly profit was around +70 points from the tips/big race previews.
I will start recording results properly for Tips/Big Race Previews in a spreadsheet, including returns at BFSP, and I will publish this monthly, starting this month. (so Jan’s results will be at beginning of Feb) I will continue to record results for micro systems as I do now, in the weekly diary posts, also with a monthly review. HorseRaceBase records the results at BFSP, and to save me time, I won’t record systems in a spreadsheet. If you follow them etc you are free to do this yourself – and in general I would advise anyone who bets to try and keep records of some sort.
So, for now – results for 2016 to date, since 01/01/2016…
Monthly Trainers: 3/7 = +9 points (to ‘widely available’ – 2 or more – bookie prices at time of posting)
Jumps Handicappers: 1/6 = -2 points
Other (K Lee at moment): 1/1 = +9 points
BIG RACE PREVIEWS : 3/8 = +10 points
TIPS (other): 1/5 = +7.5 points
RUNNING TOTAL 2016: 9/27 = +33.5 points
- Micro Systems: 5/14 = +16 points
- ‘TIPS’ (all) : 4/13 = +17.5 points
A couple from the sand that I have backed in recent days, that I think should be going close soon…
Youre A Goat – for Gary Moore has to go in. Running on the 11/01/16 at Kempton he was well backed from 10/1 (believe 16s available evening before) into 11/4, 2/1 at times. He somewhat fell out of the stalls and was still very green, which was surprising given money came and it was his fourth start. Middle distances look to be his thing and I suspect he will learn a great deal for this run, especially mentally. I think we may see a different horse on the next few starts and I suspect the Moore’s think he has a lot in hand. He wasn’t knocked about when it was clear to the jockey he wasnt going to pick the leaders up.
Dellbuoy – ‘You Plonker’ was my general feeling towards the young jockey in this one! He was nibbled at from 25s into 14s and was held up far too back off a slow pace. Now, that may have been instructions as they may have wanted to give this horse some confidence, especially as it appears he had been having breathing problems. Fair enough. In the the first time tongue tie he finished off his race well, to leave an impression of what might have been. He is still unexposed on the AW (2/9) and around 12f appears to be his trip. It looks like he will need a strong pace and to be ridden a bit closer to it. But, a lowly handicapper to keep an eye on. It may transpire that he just inst that great and isnt consistent, but he is worth following in again at some point.
Kruzhlinin – clearly a more obvious one for Mr Hobbs here – he beat a decent enough chasing field quite comfortable on his first start in a few months – and much like The Last Samuri who is also owned by the Rooneys, looks to be a chaser going places. At the moment I doubt they are regretting moving their string out of the McCain yard. He looks likely to stay further than 3m and while he may not be much of a price on his next few starts, is one for the longer term.
As happens every now and then I/we got no sort of run for our money in this one – that is always a source of annoyance for me. While it would be nice to pick the winner every time, that is impossible and the aim is always to try and find value picks. Ideally the worst case is having a horse to cheer over the last few fences who gets beat on the run in. Sadly on this occasion we had nothing to cheer for most of the race! Irritating.
Now, in this race I was a bit trends/stats blinkered which was my error. I try and look at ever ‘Big’ race in two ways – one using trends/stats to form a shortlist, and analysing from there. The second, looking at a race as I would normally do, ignoring trends/stats. I failed to do that in this race. If I had simply asked the question – who is guaranteed to stay and guaranteed to stay in this ground – there would have been a shortlist of two, the winner and Emperor’s Choice. Now, I won’t pretend that I would have tipped him as the stats horses were bigger odds and I may have still gone with them. But, that is something I need to ensure I do consciously, moving forwards- especially when conditions are that extreme.
That is all for this week’s post. There have been quite a few micro angles recently, what with the Heavy Ground Trainers and the Kerry Lee micro angles – I will give it a rest this week!
At some point I will write a few thoughts on racing’s terrestrial TV coverage and the move to ITV etc.