Weekly Diary 04/01 – 10/01/16 (COMPLETE)

RESULTS UPDATE 

It is a new year so I think I am best re-setting results and recording everything properly from the start of 2016. 

So, for reference, results up until 3/01/16 were as follows…

Micro Systems (since start Aug 2015) = +86.3 points 

TIPS (inc Big Race Previews) (since start Oct 2015) = +58.25 points 

Portfolio Total = + 144.55 points 

I wont re-cap on results before that, there is a ‘yearly review’ on here somewhere that looked at the ‘tips’ from November 2014 (when blog really got going) to end of September 2015. That yearly profit was around +70 points from the tips/big race previews. 

***

I will start recording results properly for Tips/Big Race Previews in a spreadsheet, including returns at BFSP, and I will publish this monthly, starting this month. (so Jan’s results will be at beginning of Feb) I will continue to record results for micro systems as I do now, in the weekly diary posts, also with a monthly review. HorseRaceBase records the results at BFSP, and to save me time, I won’t record systems in a spreadsheet. If you follow them etc you are free to do this yourself – and in general I would advise anyone who bets to try and keep records of some sort. 

***

So, for now – results for 2016 to date, since 01/01/2016…

MICRO SYSTEMS 

Monthly Trainers: 3/7 = +9 points (to ‘widely available’ – 2 or more – bookie prices at time of posting) 

Jumps Handicappers: 1/6 = -2 points 

Other (K Lee at moment): 1/1 = +9 points 

***

‘TIPS’…

BIG RACE PREVIEWS : 3/8 = +10 points 

TIPS (other): 1/5 = +7.5 points 

***

RUNNING TOTAL 2016: 9/27 = +33.5 points 

  • Micro Systems: 5/14 = +16 points 
  • ‘TIPS’ (all) : 4/13 = +17.5 points 

***

EYE-CATCHERS 

A couple from the sand that I have backed in recent days, that I think should be going close soon…

Youre A Goat – for Gary Moore has to go in. Running on the 11/01/16 at Kempton he was well backed from 10/1 (believe 16s available evening before) into 11/4, 2/1 at times. He somewhat fell out of the stalls and was still very green, which was surprising given money came and it was his fourth start. Middle distances look to be his thing and I suspect he will learn a great deal for this run, especially mentally. I think we may see a different horse on the next few starts and I suspect the Moore’s think he has a lot in hand. He wasn’t knocked about when it was clear to the jockey he wasnt going to pick the leaders up. 

Dellbuoy – ‘You Plonker’ was my general feeling towards the young jockey in this one! He was nibbled at from 25s into 14s and was held up far too back off a slow pace. Now, that may have been instructions as they may have wanted to give this horse some confidence, especially as it appears he had been having breathing problems. Fair enough. In the the first time tongue tie he finished off his race well, to leave an impression of what might have been. He is still unexposed on the AW (2/9) and around 12f appears to be his trip. It looks like he will need a strong pace and to be ridden a bit closer to it. But, a lowly handicapper to keep an eye on. It may transpire that he just inst that great and isnt consistent, but he is worth following in again at some point. 

Kruzhlinin – clearly a more obvious one for Mr Hobbs here – he beat a decent enough chasing field quite comfortable on his first start in a few months – and much like The Last Samuri who is also owned by the Rooneys, looks to be a chaser going places. At the moment I doubt they are regretting moving their string out of the McCain yard. He looks likely to stay further than 3m and while he may not be much of a price on his next few starts, is one for the longer term. 

***

Welsh National…

As happens every now and then I/we got no sort of run for our money in this one – that is always a source of annoyance for me. While it would be nice to pick the winner every time, that is impossible and the aim is always to try and find value picks.  Ideally the worst case is having a horse to cheer over the last few fences who gets beat on the run in. Sadly on this occasion we had nothing to cheer for most of the race! Irritating. 

Now, in this race I was a bit trends/stats blinkered which was my error. I try and look at ever ‘Big’ race in two ways – one using trends/stats to form a shortlist, and analysing from there. The second, looking at a race as I would normally do, ignoring trends/stats. I failed to do that in this race. If I had simply asked the question – who is guaranteed to stay and guaranteed to stay in this ground – there would have been a shortlist of two, the winner and Emperor’s Choice. Now, I won’t pretend that I would have tipped him as the stats horses were bigger odds and I may have still gone with them. But, that is something I need to ensure I do consciously, moving forwards- especially when conditions are that extreme. 

***

That is all for this week’s post. There have been quite a few micro angles recently, what with the Heavy Ground Trainers and the Kerry Lee micro angles – I will give it a rest this week! 

At some point I will write a few thoughts on racing’s terrestrial TV coverage and the move to ITV etc. 

***

Josh

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

4 Responses

  1. I have even fascinated by trends and developed some interesting and profitable ones over the years – trend that I have observed is that the big owners expect their trainers to win races for them – the Irish squad at Cheltenham feastival in one that is well entrenched now. You mentioned this by way of Kurzhlinin and his move to Hobbs. Top owners want top trainers and top trainers have top facilities – the days of Red Rum winning 3 national with a run along Southport beach and a swim in the sea is well gone. Now it is possible to take a quality horse that has broken down had its problems and using all the facilities available in top yards ready it up for a big race at a feastival meeting without going through the usual pre races. The owners is more than will to play because the days of buying s decent horse for a reasonable sum – better make the most with what you have got. And as for target races you and I might like to win a feature race at a lesser gaff on a Tuesday afternoon but not top owner.

    In the coral cup does a top trainer and top owner have a horse that has lost its way but will be readied for the race in March which out the trends?? Who owners the winners and placed of races at Cheltenham feastival might be an interesting trend

    1. Hi Joe, very interesting points you raise and not something I have delved into too much in truth – getting hold of the information in an easy to analyse way may be a challenge – I will check but I think HorseRaceBase does now have an owners tab, and say for the likes of JP it would be interesting to see his record as an owner in certain handicaps.
      In general, like with anything, trends are only a guide and you must be careful that they do not blinker you – your final points are interesting and there will be horses like that, just minded for the festival that may have had issues but are ready to go on that day. With a lot of the races there will be strong rest pattern trends – but of course, trainer methods are always changing and many can get horses fit enough at home now, more so than even 10 years ago I suspect – so we may see more winners going in after longer breaks. And with everything it is about price, and your assessment of value.

  2. josh,
    I have paid for your AW report for the remaining term but I have not received any confirmation on how to access the information
    can you email details please

    1. Hi Errol…yes will do, my email provider has issues with certain accounts,apologies for this. You shoukd have been sent it automatically but clearly that hasnt happened. I will email it to you first thing tomorrow. You can always email me as well, info@racingtoprofit.co.uk

Leave a Reply to Errol Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published.