MEMBERS REPORT: 07/01/16 (COMPLETE) (IMPORTANT, ‘MUST’ READ INFORMATION)

Firstly…DellBuoy…received an interesting ride. Held up in a different county off a moderate pace he ‘flew’ home – well, flew in the context of a 0-60 AW handicap, but it took him a while to get going- and the jockey waited an age to really get after him. Strange. If he was mid division from the start I think he would have been in the money at worse. I will be keeping an eye on him, as in the first time tongue tie he finished his race off, going forwards not backwards, which will please connections. They should find a poor race for him at some point. 

After the micro systems and bets etc I have written quite a long piece about the blog and daily members reports – and if you ever back a horse mentioned on this blog should be worth a read. 

The link to the survey is still below in the comments. Thanks to the 64 or so of you who have completed it so far. 

***

TIPS

There are no tips today. 

TODAY’S STATs/ANGLES

(remember, these are NOT tips, just information that some of you may find useful. I HAVE NOT looked at other horses in these races in any depth whatsoever. Do with the information as you please. Over-time I hope this approach proves profitable but as yet the evidence is not there in this section of the blog to start backing them all systematically, on my say so) 

1.50 Ling – Lucky Dottie – 7/1 – trainer is 15/79, 19 places, +135 points SP with his 10+F handicappers here in the winter months. This one is a CD winner and the only one with proven stamina – albeit quite a few appear to be trying this trip for the first time, and as such some may improve for it. The horse is 3/12, 4 places on the AW and is arguably still open to improvement. She returned from a break LTO and the question is whether that run was just a bit too poor, and/or how much will she come on for it. She is versatile as to pace, and given she stays I hope the jockey may send her to the front and try and dictate, we shall see. 

2.05 Towc – Son of Suzie – 3/1 – EYE-CATCHER – He is an eye-catcher (as detailed in Weekly Diary posts) from his first run of the season where I thought he may be a chaser worth following, given his unexposed profile and some decent enough hurdles form. However he is now 0/10 over fences but has run some respectable efforts at C3 level. He drops in class here, has dropped a bit in the handicap and should relish conditions. 2m4f, in heavy, on this stiff track may well be just what he wants. There really are no excuses and he should be winning this for me, if he is going to fulfill any chasing potential, given it is a moderate race. The trainer is 3/9, 5 places in the last 14 days and 15/76 at the track with all runners. As always value is in the eye of the beholder – I think in the context of this race 3s is ok. 

3.20 Ling – Justice – 11/1 – Statistically this horse has plenty going for her. The trainer is 4/19, 8 places with handicap debutants in the last two years, 3/13,4 places in the last year – suggesting he may have changed approach slightly. He is 2/13, 4 places with such runners at this track. The trainer is in form – 4/17 last 30 days, 2/6, 3 places last two weeks. The horse steps up in trip which on breeding is what she wants. She was 66/1 and 50/1 for her last two maidens and clearly wasnt expected to do anything. The 194 day break is the question – she will have developed further in that time, but the question is whether she is fit and that is where the market MAY guide – Ivory can get them fit if he wants so I have no issues on that front, just whether she will be fully tuned up to go. This is an awfully poor level at which to start in handicaps and you would like to think she will show something! 

MICRO SYSTEMS 

Jan Trainers 

1.35 Towc – Eminent Poet – (any odds) 

***

2016: The Year Ahead:

Racing To Profit Blog

Firstly, before I get onto my thinking and ideas for the next year (which in part will be shaped by ongoing responses to my survey) I will try and explain the purpose of the blog and its different components – to avoid any confusion! 

What is it all about, and what are these Daily Members Reports??!

PURPOSE…

The purpose of the blog is quite simple – to provide information (objective and subjective) and opinion that:-

1. Enhances our enjoyment of the sport.
2. Makes us profitable (to some extent) in the long term. Whether you are a £1 per point punter, a £10 per point punter, £20 per point (like myself) or a £50 per point etc. This blog should be accessible for all who wish to engage with it. 

What is my approach?

As you may or may not be aware I have what I call a portfolio approach to my racing/punting. At times this is quite selective but in essence covers the following;-

STATS BASED

1. Trainer based Micro Systems
2. Trainer bases stats in relation to certain tracks
3. Other trainer based stats (1^st time 2yo, 1^st time Handicap Debutants etc)
4. Horse Profiles – following horses that have demonstrated a clear pattern of behaviour, especially when dropping in class and ratings. (ie horse may be 4/5 when dropping into a C6 handicap, 1/20, 2 places when racing above this…wait wait ans wait some more for them to drop into C6, back and…sometimes win!) This is an area I will explore further in due course.
5. Big Race Trends
6. Big Meeting Trends-stats/Trainer Stats/Trainer Micro Angles-profiles

OTHER

Well, a lot of my tips (including Big Race Previews) stem from some statistical way in as above, but not all of them. I will use all the tools at my disposal (Geeegeez Gold and HorseRaceBase, my Stats Guides/research) in order to come up with a TIP. I will also use a growing list of ‘Eye-Catchers’ to help inform any thinking.

During the jumps season these tips will usually, but not exclusively, focus on 3m+ handicap chases as well as any others that I may have researched trends /stats for (a big race). Eye-catchers and ‘Profile Horses’ will also come into this.  I am a great believer that in order to profit from this game, outside of a well-researched systematic/stats based approach, is to try and specialise, or find race types you enjoy analysing and watching. For me that is 3m+ chases (Handicaps/graded) and Sprint Handicaps on the flat.

What Are The Daily Members Reports?

The daily Members Reports are my attempt to bring into one place my punting activity for the day. These posts allow me to bring together all of those aspects mentioned above with the aim of finding horses to back and providing information that you may find helpful. 

These Members Reports currently have three sections, one of which is and has been in testing somewhat…

1. TIPS – quite straight forward – if you see any horse, either under the heading TIP or BIG RACE PREVIEW with a staking amount next to it (ie 1 point win, 1 point EW etc) you can be confident that I have researched the race to the best of my abilities. The only difference between a Tip and a Big Race Preview is that the latter stems from trends/stats that I have researched and used to help narrow down the field. All results are recorded and reflected on in the Weekly Diary Posts as well as a monthly review. (December to follow!)
2. MICRO SYSTEMS – This section is used to post potential qualifiers from the numerous micro systems that I have researched. Currently this includes the ‘Jumps Handicappers’ and the Monthly Trainers – these are the main stay. There are a couple of others that are running as well, namely James Fanshawe’s and Amanda Perrett’s ‘All-weather switchers’ – as expected the winter months are quiet for those ones.
3. TODAY’S STATS/ANGLES – this section is in flux/test at the moment and I have modified it at times. In essence the aim is to provide a handful of horses that are interesting purely from a statistical/profile/pace of the race perspective. The aim is to find some decent priced runners that COULD go well. The horses mentioned in this section ARE NOT TIPS – as I haven’t analysed any other runners in the race, and many are in race types I may lack confidence to tip in.

SO, HOW SHOULD YOU ENGAGE WITH THESE DAILY MEMBERS REPORTS?

1. TIPS –

Tip is maybe misleading as, bar micro systems, I will never put up a horse without, what I hope, is a logical explanation as to why I am backing it. So, firstly you have information there that you can interpret and use – to either agree or disagree with me. I record results so that you can have confidence if you wish to back my tips. Every-time you see a staking amount, you can multiply that by £20 per point to know how much I have bet on the horse. Since October the TIPS (inc Big race Previews) are on +58 points profit, with no more than 2 points backed on any one horse.

IMPORTANT: My ‘Tipping’ will forever operate in the 15% win strike rate to 25% win strike rate, given my approach and the odds I play at, and looking at my historical performance. Obviously the nearer the higher end the better, but I don’t care for winners, I care for profit (and where possible, getting a run for my money for as long as possible, to be entertained!)

Per 1000 bets, with a win strike rate of 15%, statistically I could hit a maximum losing run of 43. At 25% that figure goes down to 24 – every 1000 bets or so. Now, before the start of November there were a couple of fluctuations with the tips – twice I got up to the mid 20 points profit range, only to then come back down to single figure profit levels. I have become more focussed since then on certain race types, and in part helped by the jumping form settling down. But, also, sometimes that is just how it goes.

So, if you started backing the tips at the start of one of those runs, you could have conceivably been MINUS 20 points. YOU have to bet to a level where any one of those scenarios above is comfortable, and indeed anyone of them happening twice in a short space of time is comfortable/manageable. IF you bet £10 per point and you could not lose £200-£400,you are betting too much. As simple as that. Start small, and build up

Geegeez Stat of The Day is the example I always use because it is the only ‘tip’ I follow outside of what I find myself. I think I bet from the first year, or within a few months, of its inception. I was betting £5 per point to start with. Only last year did I migrate to £20 per point, which is where I am now and will be for the foreseeable future. It took me time to build up my bank to a level where I was comfortable to raise my stakes. It has taken me 7.5 years, from when I was 18, to get up to a level of betting (or being comfortable to bet) £20 per point regularly.

So, you engage with these tips how you wish, based on the information provided. You can back them all like I do, or not at all and just read for fun and/or to be informed – to help your own analysis.

2. MICRO SYSTEMS

There are three ways you can approach the micro systems. Firstly, you can just ignore them. Secondly back them all or thirdly use the research and knowledge of the strike rates etc to help with your own analysis, and take a more selective approach.

These have been researched so that you can back them systematically when in qualifying range. Over the course of a season or a 12 month period, this is what they will ultimately be judged on  – at the end of the day they are systems. I have confidence in the research. But of course, it is always wise to keep an eye on performance. They are all trainer based and as such they are liable to have bad years, especially if the yard has a virus for example, or it is a small yard and there is a lack of new blood, with all the older horses handicapped out of winning.

My personal approach is to ask whether I can fully discount a horse, and, as always, a consideration of its price. If I cannot fully discount a horse (ie  it is 0/14, 0 places beyond 2m, and is running over 2m4f) in line with how I analyse a race, then I have something on, usually 1 point. I have missed one winner to date, Bold Henry at Sandown a couple of days ago – failing my own rules (could not totally dismiss him!) but I have avoided a few losers so not too much damage done.

3. TODAY’S STATS/ANGLES

IMPORTANT – the historical evidence is not there as yet to back all of these systematically. Now, over time, of course the intention is for this section to be profitable, backing all of them. My intention with this is to highlight some horses of interest, based on objective stats – the stats are the stats, as I have researched/found them – that are a decent price, that suggests a horse may out-run their odds.

I have only looked at the horse in any depth, not all the other runner etc. You may ask why these are not tips? Well, over time some of them may well become tips, but this allows me to provide more  information for those of you who wish to use it. For example, I would not tip in a 2yo nursery – I have neither the time, inclination or knowledge, to analyse such a race. But, as happened a few weeks ago, I found a Luca Cumani runner at 25s, that had strong stats supporting its chance. It won. I backed it. It wasn’t on the blog, because at that time I tried to view everything as a ‘tip’. The idea with this new approach is that I would include such runners – safe in the knowledge that I have tasked you with making a decision as to whether you wish to back it! 

So, this is a test, that may well need more refining, we shall see. Given the odds of potential bets the losing runs could be quite severe, but the profits may end up being rather tasty – over time – I will find the odd 25/1 shot that drops in I am sure.

At the moment, I suppose much like everything else on the blog, this is Information, for you to interpret. DON’T back them all without looking at a race in depth, at least until historical results from this section suggest that may be a wise thing to do. But, that is up to you. At the moment, their performance is not recorded in the official results for the blog/portfolio. 

***

Clearly, all of the other information provided in general posts is there for you to use and interpret as you see fit, such as the big race trends, big meeting stats etc 

If there is confusion I hope the above clears this up. If not, comment away on the blog/email me.

***

THE FUTURE OF THE BLOG…

I will not pre-empt responses to my survey which will be circulated to my email list on Sunday. However, 60 of you have completed it so far with some interesting results – I thought the free text comments would end up being most useful, and that is turning out to be the case. I knew you were a polite, informed and opinionated lot! 🙂 Just how it should be. The comments so far have given me plenty to ponder, for now some initial observations…

1. Firstly, I have no plans in the very near future to introduce a subscription element. However, given the direction of the blog, at some point there will likely be a monthly subscription option. BUT, in reality the current portfolio approach, in its totality, has only been operational since the start of October – not even one full season – so I won’t be making rash and uninformed decisions on cost. It has been a good couple of months but that is no reason to suddenly think it is a product worth X per month. 
2. I am conscious that there are readers of all levels of experience, and to an extent we are all always learning at this game. There have been good suggestions already about doing some over the shoulder videos/articles etc on my approach, the tools I use and how I use them etc when analysing races, researching big race trends, micro systems and horse profiles. I will attempt to do introduce some articles/videos along those themes. 

I do write a monthly article for the Betting Insiders Club report and having spoken to the editor I am allowed to share these posts, two months after initial publication by them to their members – so I will get in the habit of posting those as well.

3. At some point this year I will redesign aspects of the blog and how it looks etc. It could do with refreshing and there are a few bugs my end as well. It will remain clear and de-cluttered (it will not be plastered with advertising etc) but could be improved. There have been suggestions for a forum among other things. That is a longer term consideration but is something for me to pursue in due course.

There have been plenty of other good suggestions so far and I dare say there will be many more for me to reflect on in the coming days/weeks as more readers complete the survey.

(a link to which is below in the comments)

***

2016 STATS GUIDES

Just a quick note to say that I do plan to produce a Trainer Track Stats FLAT 2016 guide.

 I will pull together an example track profile and give you the opportunity to comment. I am always conscious about getting the amount of information correct so that it is useful, but not overwhelming. I have a few ideas, including trying to research one Trainer Based Micro Angle per track. 

I also think I have a unique – or at least in-depth – approach to Big Race Trends/Stats as well as Stats profiles for Big Meetings. I plan to explore this route and produce a few guides along those lines.

I plan to pull together a guide for The Cheltenham Festival Handicaps, including big race trends for every handicap and researching some micro angles worth pursuing. There is also the option of doing the same for Aintree/Punchestown and a guide for the flat season – all of the heritage handicaps for example.

So, that is something to look out for in the coming weeks and months, and something for me to ponder.

Right, that will do for now.

As always, all comments are welcome, as are emails etc if you have any questions or if the purpose of the blog, these daily reports, and how you can engage with them is confusing in any way. 

Josh