First up, as always a quick reflection on results over the last 7 days….
Portfolio Total (all bets, including all systems when in qualifying range)
= 28 bets / 6 wins / +16.2 points
Breakdown…
Micro Systems (- 1 point)
Monthly Trainers: 1/6 = +3 points
Jumps Handicappers = 1/8, – 4 points
Tips
1/8, 1 paid placed.. = -2.8 points
Big Race Previews
3/6 = +20 points
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RUNNING TOTAL
Micro Systems (since start Aug) = +86.3 points
TIPS (inc Big Race Previews) (since start Oct) = +58.25 points
Portfolio Total = + 144.55 points
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As always I like to try and find a trainer micro angle or two to keep an eye on or add to your portfolio. Given the amount of rain we have been having I decided to see if I could find any trainers whose horses excel in the mud. There are 5 of interest below…
HEAVY GROUND TRAINERS
Generic Rules
- HEAVY Going
- Handicaps
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J W (Seamus) Mullins
- Handicap Chases
- 12/1< (guide, 0/7, 2 places above this price to date)
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | ||
| ALL | 41 | 12 | 29.27 | 29.26 | 16 | 39.02 | 38.17 | 93.11 | 5.68 | 1.52 | |
| 2015 | 12 | 4 | 33.33 | 11.13 | 5 | 41.67 | 14.6 | 121.67 | -1.22 | 1.49 | |
| 2014 | 14 | 4 | 28.57 | 8.5 | 7 | 50 | 8.78 | 62.73 | 11.57 | 1.47 | |
| 2013 | 5 | 1 | 20 | -0.5 | 1 | 20 | -0.01 | -0.2 | -2.9 | 1.37 | |
| 2012 | 7 | 2 | 28.57 | 10 | 2 | 28.57 | 14.57 | 208.14 | -0.27 | 1.72 | |
| 2011 | 2 | 1 | 50 | 1.13 | 1 | 50 | 1.23 | 61.63 | -0.5 | 2.22 | |
| 2010 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -100 | -1 | 0 |
Of special interest are those of his that are in form. His runners that have placed at least once on previous 2 starts are: 26 bets / 10 wins / 14 places / 38% win SR / +30 SP
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D E Pipe
- Handicap Chases
- Hors Runs 90 Days: NOT 0
- Horse Wins In Heavy In Career: NOT 0 (so 1 or more)
- 0 wins in heavy,all other rules same: 5/33,11 places, 15% sr, -14 SP
- 11/1< (1/16, 4 places above this,+ 5 points, winner was big price)
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | ||
| ALL | 39 | 14 | 35.9 | 52.91 | 17 | 43.59 | 59.98 | 153.79 | 11.2 | 1.93 | |
| 2016 | 1 | 1 | 100 | 7 | 1 | 100 | 6.89 | 688.75 | 1.44 | 7.69 | |
| 2015 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -100 | -1 | 0 | |
| 2014 | 8 | 2 | 25 | 3.5 | 3 | 37.5 | 4.39 | 54.91 | 2.22 | 1.32 | |
| 2013 | 15 | 5 | 33.33 | 17.41 | 6 | 40 | 21.35 | 142.33 | 3.48 | 1.82 | |
| 2012 | 7 | 3 | 42.86 | 17.5 | 4 | 57.14 | 18.48 | 263.96 | 5.58 | 2.59 | |
| 2011 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -100 | -2 | 0 | |
| 2010 | 5 | 3 | 60 | 10.5 | 3 | 60 | 11.87 | 237.4 | 1.49 | 2.91 |
D G Bridgwater
- Handicap Chase
- 9/1<
- His well fancied horses to be taken seriously. Those with 9/2 shorter SP: 10/17, +16 points
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | ||
| ALL | 28 | 11 | 39.29 | 15.16 | 17 | 60.71 | 17.29 | 61.73 | 15 | 1.62 | |
| 2016 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -100 | -1 | 0 | |
| 2015 | 6 | 4 | 66.67 | 5.91 | 5 | 83.33 | 6.51 | 108.53 | 5.71 | 1.94 | |
| 2014 | 13 | 6 | 46.15 | 13.25 | 8 | 61.54 | 14.39 | 110.72 | 4.77 | 1.8 | |
| 2013 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 2 | 50 | -4 | -100 | 1.74 | 0 | |
| 2012 | 3 | 1 | 33.33 | 2 | 2 | 66.67 | 2.38 | 79.32 | 4.78 | 1.69 | |
| 2010 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -100 | -1 | 0 |
Paul Nicholls
- Handicap Hurdle
- NOT Chepstow/Sandown (guide – 0/11,0 places both)
- Any odds, not many sent off at a price.
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | ||
| ALL | 42 | 16 | 38.1 | 37.22 | 24 | 57.14 | 43.41 | 103.35 | 18.15 | 1.62 | |
| 2015 | 8 | 2 | 25 | 5.5 | 4 | 50 | 7.67 | 95.88 | 0.52 | 0.98 | |
| 2014 | 16 | 10 | 62.5 | 27.52 | 12 | 75 | 28.53 | 178.33 | 13.9 | 2.56 | |
| 2013 | 8 | 2 | 25 | 3.7 | 3 | 37.5 | 5.89 | 73.68 | -1.75 | 0.94 | |
| 2012 | 8 | 2 | 25 | 2.5 | 4 | 50 | 3.31 | 41.38 | 2.82 | 1.4 | |
| 2011 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -100 | -1 | 0 | |
| 2010 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 | -1 | -100 | 3.66 | 0 |
Away from Handicaps…
P J Hobbs
- National Hunt Flat Races
- Any odds, only 1 runner above 10/1
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | ||
| ALL | 29 | 11 | 37.93 | 17.28 | 20 | 68.97 | 21.51 | 74.17 | 6.99 | 1.44 | |
| 2016 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 | -1 | -100 | 0.33 | 0 | |
| 2015 | 3 | 2 | 66.67 | 4.38 | 3 | 100 | 5.09 | 169.65 | 3.17 | 2.74 | |
| 2014 | 8 | 4 | 50 | 11.9 | 6 | 75 | 13.49 | 168.62 | 3.22 | 1.84 | |
| 2013 | 7 | 1 | 14.29 | -4.5 | 3 | 42.86 | -4.42 | -63.19 | -1.66 | 0.42 | |
| 2012 | 6 | 2 | 33.33 | 2.75 | 4 | 66.67 | 3.78 | 63.01 | 0.86 | 1.74 | |
| 2011 | 4 | 2 | 50 | 3.75 | 3 | 75 | 4.57 | 114.35 | 1.07 | 2.22 |
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EYE-CATCHERS
Tenor Nivernais – like Top Gamble below, is a horse in fine form and ran a cracker behind Village Vic at Cheltenham- this could turn to be decent form as the season progresses, as that Hobbs horse looks to still be improving. There was no disgrace in chasing him home again. His handicap form suggests he is best on soft/heavy – 4/13, 7 places against 0/9, 1 place when good is in going description. 2m4-2m5f looks to be ideal, although at times he gives the impression he would stay further. He is one to track for when he eventually drops back into C3, if he ever does – he is 4/7, 6 places when dropping into C3, obviously his sights have been raised this season.
Top Gamble – ran well behind Tenor and VV in the race above, with a massive gap back to the rest. It looks like his stamina was giving way near the end. I think in soft/heavy ground around 2m is ideal, but he can stay 2m4f on good ground. He is versatile ground wise it would appear. This is a stiff track as well and maybe he could get 2m4f on soft at another track, esp if going a modest gallop. I suspect he has wins in him from this mark and has a touch of class. 4/9 over fences to date.
Horizontal Speed – proved a liking for Heavy ground and appeared to just run out of gas, having traveled really well for a long way. All of his winning form to date has been around 2m4f, which back here in a strong run race may be ideal. He travelled as if he has wins in him from this mark and is one to keep onside I think.
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That is all for this week.
One Response
Thank you Josh, informative as ever, keep up the good work.