Big Race Trends: Saturday

We have the rearranged Welsh National to look forward to this Saturday – I posted the stats and trends for this a few days before the original date, but have repeated them below. I plan to look at the Lanzarote Hurdle from Kempton for my Daily Punt blog. I think that will be it for ‘big races’ this week. 

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Welsh National

18 renewals since 1997

309 runners, 68 placed horses

11/18 1st or 2nd LTO

  • 11/102 runners, 30 places…61% winners, 33% runners, 44% placed horses

18/18 Top 6 LTO

  • 18/221 runners, 60 places…100% winners, 72% runners, 88% placed horses
  • 0/88, 8 places finished 7th or worse
    • 0/13, 0 places fell LTO
    • 0/27, 2 places PU LTO
    • 0/6, 1 place UR

18/18 Aged 9 or younger

  • 0/75, 9 places aged 10 or older

18/18 carried 11-6 or less

  • 0/36, 7 places carried 11-7 or more
  • 11-12…0/14, 5 places

18/18 ran 16-60 days ago

  • 0/31, 3 places ran 1-15 days ago
  • 0/26, 0 places ran 61+ days ago

17/18 Had 1 or 2 runs this season

  • 0/18, 0 places had 0 runs
  • 1/71, 15 places had 3 or more

ODDS

  • 18/18 – 40/1 or under
  • 50/1 or over SP…0/42, 3 places
  • 22/1-40/1…1/62, 9 places

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OTHER STATS

Now, when the ground is HEAVY… (10 times in last 18 years)

  • 10/10 carried 10-13 or less (EXCLUDING jockey claims)
  • 9/10 carried 10-8 or less
    • 9/102 runners, 26 places…
  • 0/45, 9 places carried 11-00 or more

When it is SOFT.. (6 times, 2 times been officially good to soft)

  • 0/46, 8 places carried 10-4 or less (excluding jockey claims)
  • When including jockey claims…0/52, 9 places carried 10-3 or less
  • 11-7 or more…0/9, 2 places (Including jockey claims)

***

17/18 had 1 or 2 runs only in previous 90 days

  • 0/19, 0 places had 0 runs in 90 days
  • 1/57, 13 places..3 or more runs in previous 90 days

0/22, 6 places had 6 or more chase wins to name

18/18 had 0-3 Handicap Chase Wins to name

  • 0/46, 5 places had 4 or more handicap chase wins to name

16/18 finished 1st or 2nd on at least one of previous 3 starts

  • 2/87, 17 places did not…11% runners, 28% runners, 25% places (place % suggests these are running as you may expect, so maybe not a stat to be too hung up on)

0/28, 3 places DID not place on any of previous 4 starts

15/18 had 1-3 Handicap Wins to name

  • 15/172 runners, 42 places…83% winners, 56% runners, 62% places
  • 1/59, 16 places had 0 handicap wins
  • 0/44, 5 places had 4 handicap wins
  • 2/21, 5 places had 5 handicap wins
  • 0/13, 0 places had 6 or more handicap wins

1/49, 8 places had 18 or more chase runs to name

16/18 Did Not run in a G3 or Listed Race LTO

  • 2/109, 24 places did run G3/Listed LTO…11% winners, 35% runners, 35% places

***

TRACK LTO (of interest)

  • Chepstow: 8/45, 18 places…+80 SP
  • Chelt: 3/44, 8 places
  • Hayd: 2/30, 9 places
  • Aintree: 1/27, 3 places
  • Sand: 1/14, 2 places
  • Navan: 1/8, 2 places
  • Wetherby: 1/5, 2 places
  • Newbury: 1/51, 11 places
  • Newcastle: 0/9, 1 place
  • Exeter: 0/15, 1 place

TRAINERS (of interest)

  • P Nicholls: 2/31, 12 places
  • Venetia Williams: 2/12, 5 places
  • R Lee (now K Lee-not much has changed): 2/8, 3 places
  • Jonjo O’Neill: 2/8, 3 places
  • NTD: 2/22, 5 places
  • JTR Dreaper: 1/2,1 place
  • A King: 1/10, 5 places
  • 1 win each others: Hawke/Scudamore/Daly/Hobbs (1/19,3 places)
  • E Williams: 0/4, 2 places
  • V Dartnall: 0/6, 2 places
  • D Pipe: 0/13, 1 place (Martin was 0/24, 1 place)
  • L Russell: 0/4, 2 places
  • P Bowen: 0/9, 0 places
  • C Tizzard: 0/7, 0 places
  • Mrs S J Smith: 0/5, 1 place
  • N Henderson: 0/5, 2 places
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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

One Response

  1. Hi Josh….a few more trends to add to your extensive ones above…

    Horses running in a class 2 contest lto: 82 runners/10 winners (+12 places)/24.83 SP_PL/12% SR
    Trainer SR between 11-20% @ track: 103 runners/12 winners (+15 places)/36.50 SP_PL/11.7% SR
    Lto distance won/ahead s.h – 2l: 80 runners/9 winners (+14 places)/18.33 SP_PL/11.25% SR

    Maybe useful…..

    Best

    Martin

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