We have the rearranged Welsh National to look forward to this Saturday – I posted the stats and trends for this a few days before the original date, but have repeated them below. I plan to look at the Lanzarote Hurdle from Kempton for my Daily Punt blog. I think that will be it for ‘big races’ this week.
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Welsh National
18 renewals since 1997
309 runners, 68 placed horses
11/18 1st or 2nd LTO
- 11/102 runners, 30 places…61% winners, 33% runners, 44% placed horses
18/18 Top 6 LTO
- 18/221 runners, 60 places…100% winners, 72% runners, 88% placed horses
- 0/88, 8 places finished 7th or worse
- 0/13, 0 places fell LTO
- 0/27, 2 places PU LTO
- 0/6, 1 place UR
18/18 Aged 9 or younger
- 0/75, 9 places aged 10 or older
18/18 carried 11-6 or less
- 0/36, 7 places carried 11-7 or more
- 11-12…0/14, 5 places
18/18 ran 16-60 days ago
- 0/31, 3 places ran 1-15 days ago
- 0/26, 0 places ran 61+ days ago
17/18 Had 1 or 2 runs this season
- 0/18, 0 places had 0 runs
- 1/71, 15 places had 3 or more
ODDS
- 18/18 – 40/1 or under
- 50/1 or over SP…0/42, 3 places
- 22/1-40/1…1/62, 9 places
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OTHER STATS
Now, when the ground is HEAVY… (10 times in last 18 years)
- 10/10 carried 10-13 or less (EXCLUDING jockey claims)
- 9/10 carried 10-8 or less
- 9/102 runners, 26 places…
- 0/45, 9 places carried 11-00 or more
When it is SOFT.. (6 times, 2 times been officially good to soft)
- 0/46, 8 places carried 10-4 or less (excluding jockey claims)
- When including jockey claims…0/52, 9 places carried 10-3 or less
- 11-7 or more…0/9, 2 places (Including jockey claims)
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17/18 had 1 or 2 runs only in previous 90 days
- 0/19, 0 places had 0 runs in 90 days
- 1/57, 13 places..3 or more runs in previous 90 days
0/22, 6 places had 6 or more chase wins to name
18/18 had 0-3 Handicap Chase Wins to name
- 0/46, 5 places had 4 or more handicap chase wins to name
16/18 finished 1st or 2nd on at least one of previous 3 starts
- 2/87, 17 places did not…11% runners, 28% runners, 25% places (place % suggests these are running as you may expect, so maybe not a stat to be too hung up on)
0/28, 3 places DID not place on any of previous 4 starts
15/18 had 1-3 Handicap Wins to name
- 15/172 runners, 42 places…83% winners, 56% runners, 62% places
- 1/59, 16 places had 0 handicap wins
- 0/44, 5 places had 4 handicap wins
- 2/21, 5 places had 5 handicap wins
- 0/13, 0 places had 6 or more handicap wins
1/49, 8 places had 18 or more chase runs to name
16/18 Did Not run in a G3 or Listed Race LTO
- 2/109, 24 places did run G3/Listed LTO…11% winners, 35% runners, 35% places
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TRACK LTO (of interest)
- Chepstow: 8/45, 18 places…+80 SP
- Chelt: 3/44, 8 places
- Hayd: 2/30, 9 places
- Aintree: 1/27, 3 places
- Sand: 1/14, 2 places
- Navan: 1/8, 2 places
- Wetherby: 1/5, 2 places
- Newbury: 1/51, 11 places
- Newcastle: 0/9, 1 place
- Exeter: 0/15, 1 place
TRAINERS (of interest)
- P Nicholls: 2/31, 12 places
- Venetia Williams: 2/12, 5 places
- R Lee (now K Lee-not much has changed): 2/8, 3 places
- Jonjo O’Neill: 2/8, 3 places
- NTD: 2/22, 5 places
- JTR Dreaper: 1/2,1 place
- A King: 1/10, 5 places
- 1 win each others: Hawke/Scudamore/Daly/Hobbs (1/19,3 places)
- E Williams: 0/4, 2 places
- V Dartnall: 0/6, 2 places
- D Pipe: 0/13, 1 place (Martin was 0/24, 1 place)
- L Russell: 0/4, 2 places
- P Bowen: 0/9, 0 places
- C Tizzard: 0/7, 0 places
- Mrs S J Smith: 0/5, 1 place
- N Henderson: 0/5, 2 places
One Response
Hi Josh….a few more trends to add to your extensive ones above…
Horses running in a class 2 contest lto: 82 runners/10 winners (+12 places)/24.83 SP_PL/12% SR
Trainer SR between 11-20% @ track: 103 runners/12 winners (+15 places)/36.50 SP_PL/11.7% SR
Lto distance won/ahead s.h – 2l: 80 runners/9 winners (+14 places)/18.33 SP_PL/11.25% SR
Maybe useful…..
Best
Martin