A couple of winners for the systems kept the portfolio ticking along. Depending on whether you backed the Clive Cox runners (2 of which drifted out of range quite late in the day,and ran as such) you would have made between
+7 +6 and +9 +8 points (including jumps handicappers) minus the two on the shortlist. Still, a decent enough day all round. VW had another winner 11/2 (4.5/1 or so after R4) and Fanshawe kept up his impressive record with handicappers at Kempton that ran on the Flat LTO with a winner at 13/2. As the winter progresses this angle will go a bit quiet I imagine, but one to keep following next year. When I have some time I will dive into the winter AW and see what we can find of interest/use.
The Shortlist was frustrating. Mission Impossible is just a character and is maybe best left alone – no McCoy to get him round now. But, we shall see, he may pop up in a C5 handicap at some point. No run for our money there at all. The Bailey horse was a decent bet – 8/1 backed into 7/2 and he ran well, just running out of track. He probably made a few too many sloppy jumps, including the last, and that may have cost him. Frustrating. A longer run after the last and he would have won, so it will be interesting where they go with him next. Clearly handles soft and they will get a few wins out of him at a lowly level, esp if tidying up his jumping, but he is inexperienced and that is racing. I did think he was going to win turning for home so that has to go down as disappointing.
A quick note on the systems. Cox has had a couple that, depending on when you looked, you may have backed, that subsequently drifted out of range. This happens when you have odds caps and from my experience, over time, you will back the odd winner that drifts out of range, to make up for this frustration. That is the nature of the beast.
As always, I update this post the evening before with system qualifiers, and others of interest if I have time. The post is complete by 10am on the day of racing, 11am at weekends.
1.00 Ling – Minstrels Gallery 4/1 (general) – Wadham has only sent 8 handicap hurdlers here, but 2 have won and 5 have won or placed. A small sample yes, but is suggests she targets her handicap hurdlers here. Having dotted up at Fakenham last season he then ran in some very decent C2 hurdles at Cheltenham, Aintree and Kempton. He ran well at the first two, and maybe the ground was too lively at Kempton. He could improve again here and if fully tuned up could take some stopping. While Wadaham could have a better record with horses after a break I have learnt to my cost already this season – if she wants them to be fit, they will be. 4s allows that chance in what looks a fairly weak race – nowhere near as hot as some of those he ran in last season.
2.10 Hunt – Forthefunofit 7/2 (general) – Jonjo has a decent record here with all his handicappers and they are generally well backed. He is 14/56, 24 places with his handicap hurdlers here. This horse ran well last season including winning over CD and if fully tuned up has every chance of going in again. He is open to more improvement and looks sure to go well.
2.40 Hunt – Rock N Rythm 4/1 (BF/BV) 7/2 general – Another for Jonjo who is 8/26, 10 places with his handicap chasers here. He is also 2/9, 3 places with all handicap debutants at the track. This horse is in the ‘could be anything’ category – i always find it interesting when horses go straight from novice hurdles to fences the following season – to me I think that suggests they like him, they believe he is a chaser in the making and they dont want to waste any more time than they have to. He has some decent enough novice form, showing plenty of ability. This is his first chase in public and after a break, but given his profile and the trainer stats, 4s seemed fair enough to me. The market may well guide as to his chance.
Stats guide users will notice some strong stats for the jumps handicappers below, with the latter two most interesting. The market will guide for the Bailey runner but he could go off out of range, after a lengthy lay off.
Signing off 08.15, 10/11/15
2.20 Sedg – Rear Admiral (12/1 or under)
2.50 Sedg – Saints and Sinners (12/1 or under)
1.40 Hunt – Global Domination (12/1 or under)
2.20 Sedg – Nautical Twilight (12/1 or under)
3.20 Sedg – Turtle Cask (12/1 or under)
Bonus…D Nicholls has an AW runner tomorrow for a system I researched some time ago, about this time last year I think. It ticks along – looks at his runners at Wolvs/Southwell in C5/6 handicaps or claimers, 14/1 or under (a guide,has had odd winner 16/1) – one runner tomorrow…Hit The Lights, in the 7.40. I will dig this out and post about it in next week’s diary maybe.