Well Midnight Chorister was backed form 14s into 6s, and then proceeded to run like a 20/1 shot. He just didn’t run well with no excuse to my eye. Consistently beating the market like that is important for long term profits, albeit when you are backing losers it doesn’t feel much like a positive. The race was won by a horse where you were guessing as to fitness unless you were either at the track and/or waited for positive signs from the market. He was static in the morning at 8s but was steadily backed into 4/1 which told its own story. The fav was worth taking on and I dare say some stats guide users had that winner. With a few days left of the month ‘tips’ are on about +7, with shortlisted horses on -2. Hopefully I can find a winner or two in the next few days to end the month on a high.
Having reflected on it, and with the benefit of hindsight, given fitness was the only question (knew he would get an uncontested lead), 8/1 was a decent price in which to take a chance. It will be nice as we progress into the season where guessing into race fitness is less of a problem!
I have found 2 trainers I think to attack November with,(and possibly two more) in addition to E Lavelle and the Jumps Handicappers, who will be going all year. But, more on those tomorrow or Friday…
3.00 Sedge – Finish The Story – 1 point win 8/1 (general)
This looks a decent contest for a variety of reasons and having had a look through and looked at the odds, this is the one horse who appears to be over-priced to my eye. He is only having is 10th chase start and his decent run in the Devon National last season on heavy ground, marked him out as a potential extreme stayer to keep an eye on – albeit only at a moderate level for now. His best form has been on a sounder surface and recent prep runs over hurdles for such races seem to be the thing to do now before a big chase. The trainer is in form (3/6 last 14 days), the horse is fit and in form, and I like the fact that he should get an easy lead here if he wants it. He is the only horse that likes to front run on recent evidence and hopefully he can dictate. On this ground, and given his still unexposed profile in this sphere, and with his light weight, he could take some pegging back. At the prices he is the most interesting.
On what they have done to date he isn’t the most likely winner and he could get outstayed. Woodford County and Lackamon are probably the right price. If race fit the former has a chance and he has decent staying form to his name. He can clout the odds fence and if having to make up too much ground that could find him out. But, he is still unexposed and should run his race, but 7/2 feels right, and not really over-priced to me. Lackamon was well beaten in this last season into second but does have a massive weight swing with Royale Knight. But, his last win was in 2013 and when he is beaten he is well beaten and with that profile I wouldnt want to take 7/2. Sun Cloud has a decent chance but so far looks best on a testing surface. Admittedly he hasnt had many chase runs on good/good to soft, but his overall record on this livelier surface is 1/17, opposed to 4/10, 6 places in soft/heavy. His profile is patchy but when putting it together he would have a chance. He stays, but again, 4s feels about right and not overly generous. He was well beaten in this last year but that was his reappearance and he has had a run this time. He is usually held up way out the back and will need the leaders to come back to him here. Royale Knight is interesting, A repeat of his run in this last year would obviously see him right there – but, he came into that race last year in much better form. His return this year looked a tad disappointing. He ran a cracker in last season’s Grand National and you would want to see some more life to be confident that this run hasnt left a mark. But, again (sounding like a broken record) 9/2 again looks about right – a better run LTO and that would be more enticing, but, he could bounce back. The other two have a bit to prove and both could well need the run. Twirling Magnet is a bit enigmatic (seems to run well or get well beaten in recent runs) but all of Jonjo’s runners here deserve a second look. I would be guessing as to fitness and so far hasnt done much on his chasing reappearance. He has had a handful of chase runs beyond 24f without doing too much so stamina is a concern as well.
So, I think we have a horse that is over-priced but only time will tell. Hopefully he gets an uncontested lead and gets into a rhythm. If so I think we should get an exciting run. He looks like he will stay but does have that to prove, but that is one of the reasons why he is a bigger price. I have been backing either winners or horses that have fallen out the back of the tv this month to date,(nothing much in between) so hopefully it is the former!
2.30 Sedg – Vaihau – 6/1 (BV/PP) – Jonjo is 4/8 here with all runners, 3/6 in handicaps and 2/3 with handicap hurdlers here. Small numbers yet but when big yards dont have many runners at lesser tracks, but have a decent record, they are worth a second glance. This is a marathon trip and this horses best form to date was over 24f at Towcester. This could be right up his street and after running over shorter and on good ground he gets some juice here which looks a positive. He also gets cheekpieces which could help. 6/1 looks a shade too big to me and hopefully he out-stays them all.
Trainer Track Profiles users….. for info…Horse Race Base (and therefore the guide) has Barry Murtagh down as Barry Murtagh – in the Racing Post and other data sources he is down as F Murtagh. He runs Jubilani in the 4.00.
There are a few others on my notepad from the stats pack that I am leaving alone and if any go in I will mention them tomorrow! There are 4/5 others I have looked at but decided against backing. It may be the case that moving forward i should add a ‘notes’ section but I will think about that.
3.00 Sedge – Sun Cloud (12/1 or shorter)
4.00 Sedge – Sendiym (12/1 or shorter)
NTD (16/1 or shorter)
3.10 Strat – Wholestone
4.10 Strat – Better Days
Emma Lavelle (14/1 or shorter)
4.10 Strat – Aka Doun