No tip but one for The Shortlist
2.40 Fak – Midnight Chorister 14/1 (PP) 12/1 general, 8/1 in places. The trainer is 5/13 , 7 places with handicap chasers here, 5/15, 9 places with all handicappers here. I have had a look through this race and 14/1, or anything in double figures, appears big to me. The last race, where the fav beat him comfortably, was run at a crawl and he hit a fence hard a few furlongs out (which he has a tendency to do) which seemed to stop him. From there he was nursed home and it is possible he needed this run after a break. I would expect him to come on from that. The fav, and winner that day, is only 4 and he fought well to beat a horse that won NTO. He runs here 14 days after his reappearance and it could come too soon. He is progressive and could be better than these but this track will be a different experience and he could falter. Artifice Sivola goes for Trainer/jockey with very strong stats here as well – but he could need the run (trainer only 5/50, 9 places with chasers returning 121-365 days). Sportsreport is unexposed but his trainer is only 7/146 with chasers returning 121-365 days and he could well need the run as well. Money For Nothing has left Alan King and needs to prove that he is willing to get his head in front, as that has been his problem to date. He could also need the run. Snowell is unexposed but another whose fitness you are taking on trust. Skint has been a bit disappointing but the drop back is interesting as is the return of headgear. But, I would want to see a bit more and am happy to take him on, albeit an improved run would be no real shock. Ciceron has plenty to prove
14/1 just seems too big for a horse that could be spot on now, who has course form, and will benefit from a better run race here. He is also unexposed and is open to improvement again this season. He usually travels well and with a clear round he should not be too far away, albeit he has a very short priced horse to beat here, but who has been well found in the market. He should get closer to him this time and give any backers a run for their money.
(*prices as of 22.35)
4.20 Nott – Maybe Now Baby (14/1 or under)
Signing off 22.38, 27/10/15