A 16/1 winner (12/1 SP) for the micro systems ensured any followers of the ‘portfolio’ approach had a decent enough day. That winner helped pay for plenty of losers and leave a tidy profit. A change over in seasons is always challenging, not least for your mindset and approach – and quite simply some of my judgement with handicap chases has been a bit iffy so far. Could do better, and I know what I need to work on. It is a case of asking the right questions – like ‘has a horse proved that he cannot handle conditions/is he still progressive – does his price alleviate any concerns (ie fitness or jumping)- to name but a few. You can’t cut corners in this game and today if I am being honest with myself I was a bit to quick to jump on what was the ‘easy’ option on paper.
Hopefully some of you that absorbed the Cheltenham stats may have found a Nicholls winner at 5/1, a Henderson winner at 10/1 and a Curtis winner of the bumper at 16/1. Her record in bumpers at this meeting now 2/6, 4 places. I was on none of them. Just trust the stats! But, i get a lot of enjoyment when you use my ramblings/research to help pick your own winners so I hope some of you may have found them.
I will just stick to the micro angles tomorrow. The Old Roan Chase looks a cracker and a bit too much guessing as to fitness and targets. From those at the top of the market i like Johns Spirit if he is fully fit. If so he should go well here and this could be the season he comes if age as a G2 chaser,maybe even a G1 somewhere. He ran some fine races last year and is interesting. Of bigger prices Splash of Ginge may out run his odds. Not a race to be too dogmatic about I don’t think. You could make a valid case for quite a few in here. You would like to think one of the younger ones would win this.
1.40 Winc – Mccabe Creek (9/1 or under)
2.45 Winc – According To Trev / Dont Do Mondays (14/1 or under)
4.00 Aint – Mighty Leader / Silver Shuffle (both 12/1 or under)
Signing off. 20.52