No bets today although some notes of interest below.
The two selections on Saturday didn’t run very well, simple as that really. The horse at the Curragh faded suggesting the run came too soon – you have to trust the trainer with such runners and until they run on the track it is hard to know if a horse has recovered from a run within the last week or so – some thrive on it, this one didn’t. I was happy to take that chance at the odds. Bell’s runner at Chester was either not fit enough, didnt’t stay, or not good enough – or a combination of all three. The stats were solid, the market suggested she was fit, and she had a perfect ‘trip’ as the Americans would say. Ie track position looked good to me and there were no excuses with how the race panned out. When the button was pressed there was nothing there. Given the trainer won the race last year you would like to think he was disappointed with that. Anyway, time to move on…
While there were some ok ‘ways in’ today I was lacking confidence in the actual horses – and I don’t want to be ‘tipping’ horses just based on stats alone too often, albeit sometimes that is enough (esp if odds are decent), so what you do with the info is up to you…
5.15 Kempton – is interesting. Isamol runs for Perrett and is a qualifier for the ‘AW Switchers’ micro angle I posted the other day. She has a 30% SR with such horses (20/66, 30 places -inc wins-) and ‘the Doyler’ gets the ride here – he is 4/5 when riding the trainer’s horses at the track. Not used often he is normally put up on the good ones it would appear, albeit a very small sample. There is enough there for me to have had a bet, albeit it is difficult to be overly confident on the horse. The three handicap runs since his maiden victory havent been great, although he may have ran out of stamina LTO. He gets blinkers for the first time here which may do the trick, or they may not. The trainer is 0/39 in last 30 days as well. So, there are pros and cons. 4/1 is just about ok i think, and while he may well win, I didn’t have the confidence I wanted to ‘tip’ him as such – a poor run would be no surprise either – and I am betting him as I will do all her micro angle qualifiers from now on for this angle.
5.30 Brighton – Simcock is 15/49, 27 places (inc wins) at the track since 2009, +28 points profit. He is also 5/19, 7 places with handicap debutants in the last year. That makes Under Siege of interest, abeit 11/4 and 5/2 feels skinny enough. This is his first run for the trainer, and after an 81 day break. It looks a weak race and he is in the could be anything category. There just isnt much form to go on – having won a weak maiden – and there is just a bit too much guesswork, including fitness (market suggests fine) for me to tip – he could bolt up, he could be mid division.
2.30 Bright – Tancred
4.45 Kempt – Royal Rettie (trainer also 6/14 with hncp debutants here) Duke of North also runs for Fanshawe ‘AW Switchers’ micro system.
7.55 Leic – Fever Few