The Aiden O’Brien runner was awful on Saturday and it was clear after 1f that I had loaned 1 point back to the bookies! That micro stat will pay over time although we may have to wait for the next ‘qualifier’ given how few stable debutants he has.
Anyway, a 1 point profit on the week wasn’t spectacular but better than nothing. Thankfully the Bunbury Cup winner made it a profitable week for the blog all in, +15.5 points.
This looks a typical low grade Monday but I have found one who should give us a run for our money…
Llyrical 5/1 – 1 point win
The way in…
The trainer and jockey have very solid stats when teaming up in handicaps here. 33 bets / 9 wins / 13 places / +20 points
Llyrical won here last time out, and in this field, as a recent winner, he does stand out from the rest. That was only the 6th run for this trainer and the first over this course and distance. There is every chance, now he has his head in front, that he can kick on from that and follow up. His Geegeez Speed figure is healthy against most of the field as well. He is a prominent racer who is drawn low and should be able to track Marital, who he beat last time out. There will be no excuse in terms of track position or how the race will be run.
I can no reason why he wont run his race and 5/1 feels a tad big to me in this race, given that most of these havent won or run well in racent weeks.
It is a low grade handicap with quite a few younger horses in here. Cabal takes a drop in class and is consistent – however he could be too consistent in the sense that he doesnt look like he wants to win. That may be unfair but I am always more suspicious of horses that keep placing. The selection’s form ties in with Marital and they will no doubt be close again but there is nothing obvious for why that form should be overturned. Of course one of the out of form horses suddenly bolting up or running well wouldnt be a shock given the level we are playing at. These are generally poor quality animals who are inconsistent by nature. There is always a chance one wakes up on a going day.
Elsewhere nothing else stood out that was a decent price. Alan Swinbank doesnt have many 2yo winners first time out, none since 2012 – however at Ayr he is 2/4, 3 places with such runners. He runs Zealous in the 2pm – however he is 20/1 and looks to be unfancied. However I will be watching with interest to see how he runs.