1.30 Southwell
Cascadia 5/1 (bet365) 11/2 (PP) – 1 point win
Normally I struggle to get a grip on the form in large field, low grade, all-weather handicaps but given most of the horses in this race dont have any it has made my job easier.
Cascadia is a consistent front runner, has won at the track and over 1m4f. The fact she has winning form and has won or placed in 50% of her all-weather runs means we should at least get a decent run for our money. The trainer has a near 50% win and place strike rate at the course since 2009 and the jockey has a decent record here as well. Hopefully she will get away on the front end and they will be unable to reel her in.
The rest are a pretty poor bunch, with a couple who are trying new things and therefore open to improvement. Carlanda is 0/6 on the AW and has proven stamina over further. The drop in trip may help but I dont like backing horses that have yet to win. Anjuna Beach dosnt win very often, being only 1/16 and isnt one to trust. He is also 0/3 at the track. Sparkling Ice s 1/7 but is making her track debut. She likes to run up with the pace and the sire is 4/38 here in the last 2 years so she may take to it, but i prefer proven form here. Kingswinford is 1/18, makes his track debut and has never won beyond 1m on the AW from a few tries. Rockie Road is only 1/18 in all runs, 0/5 on AW and needs to prove his stamina. Not for me. My New Angel is 1/16 on the AW, 1/7 at Southwell but has had 15 tries beyond 1m and is yet to win. Joyful Motive is interesting and has proven stamina having won over 1m6f. The 117 day break and position in the market puts me off.
The two most interesting horses are those at the bottom of the card. Vied is 0/8 so far but is taking a big step up in trip which may help. However I am happy to take him on. Disco Dale is making his handicap debut so could have plenty in hand but he doesnt look great. The jockey is 4/123 at the track which doesnt inspire confidence either.
So for me, Cascadia should get the lead and is the only one in the race for me that doesn’t have questions to answer and that has consistent form in all of the race conditions. Hopefully she can give us 5.5 points profit.
