I have been away for the last few days and have yet to watch a replay of any races however it looks like Al Alfa just wasnt good enough and as I thought may happen Venetia’s horse bolted up. When they win like that 5/2 looks a massive price and in hindsight maybe it was a race to leave alone but you cant win everytime 🙂 It was great to see the veteran King Edmund run so well, more on him in a moment. Pivotman ran well and although losing 1/2 a point in a close finish demonstrated the importance of taking early prices. He was 7/1 when posting and was backed into 7/2. If you consistently beat the market like that you will only ever win long term!
There was not too much that jumped out today but I do not like blank days and there is enough to go on here..
Letemgo – 1 point win, 4/1 (betV,betfred,coral, william hill)
Due to time constraints a short write up this morning. This is an open race with a few unexposed horses lining up. Letemgo should get an easy lead and Tom Cannon should be able to dictate if reproducing tactics of his last run. The ground is very different here but he is yet to prove that he cannot handle it. He has not proved his stamina and it’s true to say that he simply may not stay but on a quiet day I am hoping the pace advantage will see him go close. If Tom doesnt go off too hard and can build up a lead hopefully he should be fine. At least we know he is in form having won last time out. The fav is 1/12 and doesnt look like he wants to win that often, we shall see. The Hobbs horse could be anything on handicap debut and the booking of Geraghty for Mister Snowball is interesting (although he is at the course anyway and is probably just the best jock available, why wouldnt you book him? maybe shouldnt read too much into it)
Running Total: 1/4 = + 3.5 points
Other horse of interest…
2.45 Kempton – King Edmund – 5/1
I will be doing some extensive posts on what I call ‘Profile Horses’ in future. Along with Pace and Systems/mirco systems/stats/trends etc they form a major part of my betting. For now, given King Edmund raced 3 days ago in a ‘pace race’ where we backed Al Alfa I thought I would highlight him.
King Edmund’s record in Class 3 Chases worth less than £10k to the winner reads 9 runs, 4 wins, and a further 2 places. Above this class level he is 1/27, and has never won a chase above Class 3 (£10k+). He is 1 from 1 at Kempton and is 1 from 1 when returning within 7 days. I also think there could be a ‘pace burn up’ in this race with lots of prominent racers. Although he is not getting any younger hopefully Tom Cannon can track the pace and bring up a double for himself on the day! 5/1 is a decent price and he is a decent horse at this level.
You can do with this information what you please. I dont think of myself as a tipster but I will be having a bet on him 🙂