Pace Wins The Race: Selections 24/11/14

Re-Cap

I have been away for the last few days and have yet to watch a replay of any races however it looks like Al Alfa just wasnt good enough and as I thought may happen Venetia’s horse bolted up. When they win like that 5/2 looks a massive price and in hindsight maybe it was a race to leave alone but you cant win everytime 🙂 It was great to see the veteran King Edmund run so well, more on him in a moment. Pivotman ran well and although losing 1/2 a point in a close finish demonstrated the importance of taking early prices. He was 7/1 when posting and was backed into 7/2. If you consistently beat the market like that you will only ever win long term!

Today’s Selection 

There was not too much that jumped out today but I do not like blank days and there is enough to go on here..

13.35 Kempton 

Letemgo – 1 point win, 4/1 (betV,betfred,coral, william hill)

Due to time constraints a short write up this morning. This is an open race with a few unexposed horses lining up. Letemgo should get an easy lead and Tom Cannon should be able to dictate if reproducing tactics of his last run. The ground is very different here but he is yet to prove that he cannot handle it. He has not proved his stamina and it’s true to say that he simply may not stay but on a quiet day I am hoping the pace advantage will see him go close. If Tom doesnt go off too hard and can build up a lead hopefully he should be fine. At least we know he is in form having won last time out. The fav is 1/12 and doesnt look like he wants to win that often, we shall see. The Hobbs horse could be anything on handicap debut and the booking of Geraghty for Mister Snowball is interesting (although he is at the course anyway and is probably just the best jock available, why wouldnt you book him? maybe shouldnt read too much into it)

Running Total: 1/4 = + 3.5 points 

Other horse of interest…

2.45 Kempton – King Edmund – 5/1

I will be doing some extensive posts on what I call ‘Profile Horses’ in future. Along with Pace and Systems/mirco systems/stats/trends etc they form a major part of my betting. For now, given King Edmund raced 3 days ago in a ‘pace race’ where we backed Al Alfa I thought I would highlight him.

King Edmund’s record in Class 3 Chases worth less than £10k to the winner reads 9 runs, 4 wins, and a further 2 places.  Above this class level he is 1/27, and has never won a chase above Class 3 (£10k+). He is 1 from 1 at Kempton and is 1 from 1 when returning within 7 days. I also think there could be a ‘pace burn up’ in this race with lots of prominent racers. Although he is not getting any younger hopefully Tom Cannon can track the pace and bring up a double for himself on the day! 5/1 is a decent price and he is a decent horse at this level.

You can do with this information what you please. I dont think of myself as a tipster but I will be having a bet on him 🙂

Speak tomorrow,

Josh

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

12 Comments

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  • keep em coming Josh, nice one on letemgo

    Martin 3 years ago Reply


    • yes that was rather easy wasnt it! Not sure how long the 4s stayed around, plenty of 7/2 and will record it at that price, as soon as posted all the 4s disappeared!
      Josh

      Josh Wright 3 years ago Reply


  • are you going to share at some time where you obtain front running info

    Martin 3 years ago Reply


    • yes i will do, next week sometime I think, I will be doing a few pieces on what has changed my betting etc, and it predominantly revolves around two other services/providers that are very reasonably priced. However, i am here to offer decent info and so we can all have some fun, you wont get Sell Sell Sell from me, and given i have bombarded people with my own service recently i didnt want to discuss where you may want to spend your money in future 🙂

      This will involve a video on how i use this kit and the pace tabs to find the horses.
      Josh

      Josh Wright 3 years ago Reply


  • cheers fella keep up the good work

    Martin 3 years ago Reply


  • that was unlucky got a green up at 1.4 so not lost anything on king edmund

    Martin 3 years ago Reply


  • well josh not bad again winner @just nearly. good lad.cheers bill

    bill fieseler 3 years ago Reply


  • Hi Josh
    King Edmund will win soon maybe in December and January where he is 4 from 9. He is yet to win a race from May to November from 19 attempts and that did out me off him today although I had to admit I thought I had got it wrong after the last

    David 3 years ago Reply


    • indeed,when you profile horses like that you make a judgement – was aware of when he peaks best but when you lose by a shoulder safe to say you have ran a cracker 🙂 that may have been his race we shall see but enhances his solid form at that level, thoughts 5s was too big, backed into 3s, great run. As you say, hopefully he pops in next couple of months.

      Josh Wright 3 years ago Reply


      • and to follow up again..actually when you look through his November form he has mitigating circs..mainly they have been Class 2 and Listed Races and he is just not good enough at that level. Always pays never to be too strict with such rules and hopefully we can both make some money from him in next couple of months,.

        Josh Wright 3 years ago Reply


      • Its like everything in horse racing very subjective its not very often that two people share the same point of view

        David 3 years ago Reply


        • agree, that is what makes it such a great sport, so many angles in and approaches, many of which are successful.

          Josh Wright 3 years ago Reply


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