Well it has been an up and down week but not too much damage done. Nothing flashy about tomorrow’s racing but there is a good card at Newbury. I have looked at two races in depth, plus 1 more where I have a tentative selection. I may tweet some further bets in the morning as there are a couple of more races that I want to look at…(i should add that I rarely back EW,but given odds of a lot of horses below, you may wish to back EW)
Tony Star 7/1 2pts win
Roudoudou Ville 12/1 1pts win. NON RUNNER (going)
This is an interesting race on paper, and I was originally looking at Tara Rose but then in further consideration convinced myself that Tony Star is going to romp away with this. I say that based on his performance here last march, which if he produces he will win. He looks like he prefers a flat track and course form here is a bonus. Although he is 0/9 over fences that does not tell the full story. Indeed he was a decent hurdler who is now on a decent mark and I am expecting a bold show. Roudoudou Ville is very interesting, and has a touch of class. He has clearly had his problems and he needs good ground. I am slightly concerned about the threat of showers, and if it is on the soft side, it will be 1pt down the drain, but if it is good racing ground, he could be fighting out the finish with Tony Star. For me, the others have more questions over them of one sort or the other and these two will do for me.
The Pirates Queen 9/1 o.5pts
This is more of an interest bet, but i think this is a good price for a trainer that has won this race before. Not the type of race to get overly involved in but this one has a good a chance as any.
Samingarry 12/1 1pt
Loughalder 14/1 1pt
I have looked quite hard at this race and in the end narrowed it down to the two above and Storm Survivor and Roalco De Farges. My two selections are nearly double the price of these two, and they are also in form and clearly progressive. I won on Loughalder when he last run and he romped away from an ok field, heavily eased down. He jumps well, stays and is clearly still improving following a wind operation prior to his last run. Interestingly his trainer won this race last year and I expect a bold show. The ground may not be soft enough, and the handicapper may have got hold of him, but at 14/1 I will reinvest some of the money I won on him last time. Samigarry was tried in a G1 race at Cheltenham last time out and this is clearly a step down form that. He was progressive over 3m+ before hand and his jumping will keep him in this race. I think we have two live outsiders to go to battle with in this race. I have a feeling Roalco De Frages may be being aimed at the Sandown race he came second in 2 years ago, but we shall see. He may well go very close in this, but enough doubts for me to ignore at this stage.
Scotswell 8/1 1pt
Another fascinating race and I think this progressive chaser has every chance of opening his account over fences. My confidence comes from his run two starts ago at this track where he ran a very brave race and to me showed he is improving. He has a top rider on board in what will be a fiercely run race as there are a number of prominent runners. I am hoping that he doesnt get in a fight for the lead and wastes too much energy. With doubts over most of the others, mainly around the good ground and the length of break a few of then have had, I am hoping we can get a good run for our money.
Cyrien Star 12/1 1pt
Ivy Gate 9/1 1 pt
This is a really interesting race and Warden Hill is a worthy FAV but i do not want to take 10/3 when he is up against some interesting rivals. I am taking a slight chance on Cyrien Start but I couldnt resist 12/1. I am putting a line through his last through runs because of the ground, he looks like a gd gd-sft ground horse. If that is the case I still think he has another race in him before the handicapper catches up. Ivy Gate is an interesting runner who is now open to improvement now handicapping. This could be a lenient opening mark and I think the better ground should be ok. 9/1 is a good price to find out and JonJo is in good form. I like the fact that these two run prominently which I like around this track. With tight bends it is hard to come from off the pace if a speedier horse can get away in front.
So 7.5 points laid out on the day, hopefully we can find a couple of winners.