Well with a deluge of rain meaning boggy ground everywhere, and numerous fences omitted, finding winners may prove tough. In saying that, it is at least easier to dismiss horses that do not have form on very soft and heavy ground.
I have had a great january, winning over 50 points, (70 points since Boxing Day) and whats more I think I have won the geegeez.co.uk tipping league for January! I will be spending my £120 in free bets for Bet365 wisely!
Anyway, as always we must look forward and I have looked at two races, both 3m+ Handicap Chases…
2.40 Ffos Las
Alfie Spinner 7/1
Flying Award 16/1 EW
This is a very tough race to analyse and if I am honest, unlike previus tips such at Wishfull Thinking, I am not as confident as I could be. Mountainous won the Welsh National for me at 20/1 to boost the betting bank. However, the weight may find him out – not the rise in the handicap, he will cope with that. More fact that he is not a massive horse, and in this ground, having had tough race LTO, carrying 11st 9 may prove tough. He is a likable horse from great connections and I will be cheering him if my two fail!
In truth a case can be made for most of the runners. Emperors Choice looks good (but i have missed the price, 12/1 backed into 5/1 – cannot justify backing) and Dela Bec is entitled to run well. However, Alfie Spinner has been threatening to strike all season, Yes he only has one chase win to his name but this could be the race. One thing is for sure, he will give us a good run for our money and if he does fail it should be form tiring late on. Flying Award, winning for me at 14/1 LTO, is simply too big in the market. While winning may be tough, he stays all day, ground is fine and has course form. A big run again is possible and may catch a place at worst.
Jump City – 9/1
Handupfordetroit – 18/1 EW (16/1 EW 1/4 odds bet365)
Another tough race. For me, this race could all be about pace. the majority of the horses in the race like to front run, which means a number of things. 1 the pace may be too strong and the race will fall apart near the end, with a ‘closer’ coming through late on, 2 those horses who front run but cannot lead may sulk and may not run well. As such, I wanted a horse i though would be held up – for me Jump City is the one (he has set pace before but was held up LTO, am hoping same tactics are applied). A bit of a character, his last run was solid, behind a re rejuvenated Planet Of Sound (who is a class horse and good yard stick) The ground should be fine and he may just well be galloping on past tired rivals. it is Paul Nichols on a Saturday, and 9/1 may prove too big. The angle in is the pace of the race, and caution is advised. Handsupfordetroit is too big in price in my opinion. He is this price because of the connections – they are not ‘popular’ well known connections but the trainer knows the time of day. He has been in the form of his life and is entitled to take his chance. He jumps right handed and course may suit. Again, winning may be tough but he could gran a place – and you never know, he may just surprise a few people! Again a case could be made for a lot of the others, but these two will do for me.
These two races are competitive, as most races on a Saturday are, but hopefully we get a run for our money with these four.