Saturday 04/01

1.40 Newcastle

With Sandown and Wincanton now called off this is the only race that interests me.

I am betting on ROLECARR to win. Now he was available at 15/2 when i backed him last night, however he is now 7/2, which in part maybe down to him being the Spotlight selection in the Racing Post.

For me, all of the other horses in this race have something to prove. Either they haven’t won a chase yet, and have not looked like doing so, or like Bertie Milan there is a slight doubt about the trip, especially in this ground. Etxalar is interesting but looking at his record he looks to prefer going right handed, with just 1 win from 18 chases going left handed. In truth he does not look that reliable.

Rolecarr ticks all the boxes that you want to be ticked in a long distance chase. He has a good win strike rate overall, is proven at the distance and in heavy ground, and has ran well at the track before over hurdles. Left handed, field size and days since last run are all fine. He is also on a good handicap mark. His jumping can be sketchy but in his favoured ground, and with concerns over the others, he should be fine.

7/2 may not be great value now, but he must surely go close!

good luck.


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