So, we are looking at All-Weather handicaps and horses that last ran on the Flat Turf in any race type. Importantly the record of the trainer must be better than if the horse ran on the AW last time out, as that would be no angle at all really.
- Kempton Handicaps Only
- Ran on Flat Turf LTO
- Any Odds
His stats with horses that ran on the AW last time out: 91 bets / 16 wins / 34 places / -15.4 SP / 17.5% SR
This would suggest this is a deliberate strategy and/or clearly horses coming from the flat may have been up against better opposition, and they find it easier reverting to the AW. Either way, this seems to be a decent ‘way in’ to Fanshawe’s Kempton handicappers. The place strike rate is quite brilliant and just placing £10 on every horse to place on Betfair Place SP would have won you £460 odd, minus commission.
He has had winners up to 16/1 and only 2 runners over this price, currently 0/2, 0 places. So, there are no massive priced horses skewing the profit figures either. It is currently performing 78% above market expectations so there is some way to go before these runners become over bet it would seem, and the profits could be much bigger taking early evening/morning prices.
ELIZONA is a qualifier in the 8.10 – 7/1. I am hoping she doesn’t win as she is taking on my Tip of The Day horse and I could do with a winner. She looks moderate and gets a 7lb claimer today (he is 0/4, 0 places so far in short career). She has also tried track and trip twice before and only ran moderately. I would like to think Tylicki would be on if today was the day.
- All-Weather Handicaps Only (all tracks)
- Ran Flat Turf or National Hunt LTO
- Running in SAME class or UP 1 class from LTO
- 12/1 or under
Her stats with such runners are pretty solid.
Those that ran on the AW LTO are 91 bets / 12 wins / 43 places/ 17.5% SR / AE 0.72.
She has only had 2 qualifiers that ran over jumps LTO but one of them won so I will leave them in for now.
She isnt’t very good at placing class droppers it would appear: 38 bets / 6 wins / 15.76& SR / AE 0.87.
These are obviously small samples but for now sticking to those running in the same class or progressing and moving up a class from last run looks important. The market is also a decent guide with her runners it would appear.
HANDICAP DEBUTANT TRAINER
Finally, Rae Guest caught the eye the other day when I was flicking through some stats as he has a very good record with handicap debutants on turf and AW.
- Horse Runs in a Handicap: 0
- 14/1 or under
They are rather impressive and solid stats I think. He is clearly good at hiding a horses true ability and placing them in their first handicap with a bit in hand. It will be interesting to see if he can carry this on in the next few years.
He does have the odd monster price winner but they are hard to find. His stats over 14/1 are: 51 bets / 3 wins / 8 places / +43 SP / +105 BFSP. If you are happy to back a lot of losers then just back them all to BFSP may be the way forwards as they have been profitable over time – but you wouldn’t want to miss that big priced winner!
I have been playing around with Mark Johnston handicappers and trying to find ways to profit.
Johnston Flat Handicappers
1st in a Handicap Last Time Out
Running in the same class as last time out
12/1 or under
Results (2009-): 116 bets / 33 winners / 58 places / +77 points BFSP/ AE 1.25
It wont make you rich but only averages 20 bets a season and it is nice to know such runners have a 28.5% win strike rate and a 50% place strike rate
90 Day Trainers – Another profitable approach.
I have to hold my hands up here.
I have ‘stolen’ an idea.
Firstly one of you, my email list subscribers/blog readers, got in touch – a nice chap called Bob- asking me to look into something for him. He remembered Matt Bisogno of www.geegeez.co.uk sending out something about trainer Graeme McPherson. Graeme did something very well. He had a decent record when his handicappers were having only their first or second run in the last 90 days. (ie they had ran 0 or 1 time only in the last 90 days).
Now, why is this important? Well clearly Graeme is very good at getting horses fit at home, ensuring they have not been ‘over raced’ in the preceding few weeks and subsequently finding the right races for them. This was potentially another method for identifying when horses were going to run well.
- Horse Run (last 90 days) Between 0 and 1
- Class 2,3,4
- Horse running same class as previous run or up1 or up2 classes.
2012 was clearly a difficult year but otherwise an ok set of results. He does have many decent priced winners and is actually unprofitable to follow with horses priced under 14/1. However I cant think of a logical reason to exclude those runners. He isnlt good at class5/6 (just poor animals i imagine) nor when dropping horses in class. He does have the odd winner but the general stats were not good.
2. Luca Cumani
- Horse Run (last 90 days) 0 ONLY
- Class 4, 5 only
Luca has a superb record at placing his horses in the lower grades (only a couple of runners in C6) when they havent had a run in the previous 90 days. He performs well above market expectations and generally makes steady profits every year. Even if you dont follow the selections systematically it will help with form analysis of a race knowing he has a 37% win strike rate with such runners. He is actually 0/9 with horses priced over 10/1 so you may just want to focus on the fancied runners. I suspect a few bigger priced horses in the morning get backed throughout the day into the 10/1 or under price range.
3. Miss Suzy Smith
- Horse Run (last 90 days) between 0 and 1
- Handicap Chase and Handicap Hurdle only
- 16/1 or under
A nice mini angle in which to target the Suzy Smith (not to be confused with Sue Smith) handicappers. They have to be generally well fancied. In fact she is 0/20 with horses priced over 16/1 although 5 have placed and I will be keeping an eye on this. She has been quite consistent over 5 years and I will always allow a trainer one unprofitable year out of 5, especially when it isnt totally disastrous.
I think I have noticed a trend with the yard of Donald McCain and it could be one that helps pay for Christmas
The Donald McCain yard has been quiet in recent weeks but in the last few days there have been signs that things are about to turn around –and this would fit with recent history. Two weeks ago I opened up my system building software to see if there were any trainers who did well with their chasers in the month of December. More importantly their record in December had to be better than any other month which would indicate it was a month that they targeted and/or had their string ready to fire.
Donald McCain was the only trainer that stood out. His December record with handicap chasers is as follows…
As you can see this is an impressive record. A 26% win strike rate is solid and so is his place strike rate. Most importantly he is operating at 31% above market expectations meaning his horses are going off at bigger prices than they should be – the key to long term profitable betting. What really caught my eye was the record in the last two years. I think he is improving as a trainer and he is probably getting better horses to go to war with.
This appears to be the time to catch his chasers as you can see form his record in every other month over the same time period..
It is the only month where he performs above market expectations and I think we need to keep all of his handicap chasers onside during this month.
So, the rules…
- Donald McCain
- Handicap Chase
- 14/1 or shorter
And that is it. Now, there have only been a handful of horses priced over 14/1 and although none of them have placed I wouldn’t necessarily be put off but bigger priced horses – but I would advise looking at their form chance.
I don’t think there are any other filters to put in. He has a decent record across a spread of tracks. The only one where he has struggled so far is Wetherby where he is only 1/14. However that is a small sample size and I wouldn’t dismiss his Wetherby runners out of hand just yet.
So, that is it. I have yet to back his December runners with my own money so I am a bit cautious. However all the evidence suggests this is the time of month to catch his chasers and I dare say I will back them systematically, probably starting off with ½ point win bets, although given his decent place strike rate EW betting would be worth consideration.
I will review his performance at the start of January but in the meantime let’s hope he can make us 30 points which would be nice!
When looking at micro systems and angles, especially those that are trainer based, I like to keep things simple. My usual starting point for looking at a trainer is to look at their overall record in handicaps since the start of 2010, usually with horses priced 14/1 or shorter. From there I can then dig down.
Every now and then you do not need to do too much more digging. You find a trainer that you can blindly back in handicaps and make handsome profits. Today I have such a trainer for you.
I have been tracking her for some time and she is operating 61% above market expectations. Her handicappers are consistently sent off at bigger odds than they should be, especially when they are relatively fit.
The trainer in question is Sue Gardner.
The rules for this micro system are as follows:-
- National Hunt Racing
- 14/1 or under
- Horse days since run: Between 1 and 120
And that’s it. A very straightforward micro system but very effective as you can see below…
47 winners from 184 runners is very respectable and so is the win and place strike rate. Nearly 170 points at Betfair Starting Price in 5 years is nothing short of spectacular for such a simple approach. Without doubt Sue Gardner’s handicappers, when returning within 120 days, are to be kept onside.
In previous posts/guides that have an odds cap I have made the mistake of not showing the results for those horses priced above the cap. As such the results for horses priced over 14/1 are as follows…
So all in all, I wouldn’t really bother with the bigger priced horses, but it is up to you 🙂
That is it for this post. I have been and will continue to follow Sue Gardner’s handicappers systematically. As always you are free to do with this information what you please.
Until the next time,