Members Daily Post: 18/10/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

4.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: to be updated  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

4.33 Sedg – Brian Boranha – 1 point win –  8/1  3rd -1, ran his race, just not good enough, no excuse there really for all that he could have been a bit closer through race, not that it mattered. Red Giant is mercurial, was entitled to do that on his best form, inc in this in 2018 when ahead and jockey taking wrong course, I suppose the price allowed some leap of faith, not that I could see it, and didn’t think he’d get an easy lead. But he’s enjoyed himself. That will be the final time I back Brian. 

That’s all for today, as of 09.45, write up at bottom…

 

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

(All ‘any odds’) (3/27,10p, -8.2)

3.25 Sedge – Overcourt 14/1 2nd 12/1 -1

4.33 Sedge – Duc De Grissay 5/1 UP -1 

 

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

NTD

(3/28, 7p, -12.2)

1.00 FL – Milanstorm (8/1<) 13/2  UP-1

2.57 Kemp – Locker Room Talk (8/1<) 5/1 WON 5/1> 9/2 

3.10 FL – Ballyandy (8/1<) 8/1 2nd -1 

4.33 Sedge – Arthurs Gift (8/1<) 12/1 ‘DNQ’ (8am odds)

5.10 Sedge – Rocco (8/1<) 11/1 ‘DNQ’ (8am odds) UP 11/2 

E Lavelle

(2/13,6p, -4.25)

None.

 

4.Other/Updates

 

Brian Boranha –

8s seemed a tad generous for one of many a cliff horse for me – i think i’ve backed him 2/3 times and haven’t caught him right as yet. He has no excuse today in ideal conditions. Any Geegeez/instant expert users will see his appeal, ticking all boxes against race conditions, having hacked up in this two years ago off 5lb higher. He’s the only horse in here below his last winning mark and is the best handicapped on that score. Over this CD he can just travel in his comfort zone, pick them off and hit the front after the last, powering away. With any luck.

He didn’t run too badly last season – he hit the front in this last year, first run 169 days, in softer ground than ideal for him. He also can pull himself up a bit if in front too long. But that was off 133, 11-3 on his back that day. Kelso was probably soft enough, esp that far, but Cattrick was decent, until falling at the last. He was travelling much better than Little Bruce at the time, and may well have won. Solid form. When he runs his race he posts RPRs in the mid/high 130s which many in here don’t do. His run in the Edinburgh National was ok, bang there until 3 out, and then I think stamina gave way and that race was deeper than this. As was the Summer Cup LTO when I think I fancied him for some reason. He was out of his comfort zone there I think, a solid pace, again deeper than this.  I can only think this has been the plan since. Peter Niven’s are going ok. He wouldn’t have many horses but on the Racing Post ‘Running to Form’ metric, 67% are which is much better than the rest of the trainers here. The horse can be readied after a break. Hopefully Brian doesn’t have him too far back but he will just sit where comfortable, knowing his pace.

To my eyes, 8s was overpriced, and i’ll roll the dice once more. He has no excuse today, everything looks set up for him, especially given the questions the oppo have…

I didn’t like anything else at the prices.

BBold has been well found – young, unexposed, possibly more to come in conditions, yard in form etc – he has an attractive profile, is fit and in form – that could count for plenty. The big unknown is stamina, having not even won over 3m yet, but ‘running on’ LTO. If he stays, and it’s a big if, he will be the one to pass I suspect. But he’s now a short price to find out. I’ll take him on but the fav winning is obviously never a shock!

Duc De Grissay – well he can win for the Trainer Profiles if i’m wrong, but 5s to my subjective eyes didn’t seem overpriced. A fitness question, ground questions, stamina, level of form etc. He is lightly raced / unexposed, and could run a big race, but I found it hard to wade in tipping wise. But he’s steady in the market at the moment which is a positive.

The rest can beat me. I left the older horses, 10+. Petite and Doing Fine are on tough marks now for all that stamina obviously isn’t a problem. I did think on good ground, around here, that it could happen quick enough for them.

Dandy Dan has a fitness and stamina question, and he’s now on a career high mark. He could be hard to place this year, aged 7, and needs more. He has to lug around 11-12 also and Bass is at Ffos Las with three for Kim. Given this pot, i’d have thought he’d be here if they expected a bold show. But I could be wrong on that. Still, he’s got questions to answer, his 3 most recent wins in 4 runner races.

Arthurs Gift – well he does usually need the run , 0/5,0p 121+ days off and I thought he’d want it deeper. He’s also 0/11,3p rated 131+, 3/3 when 130 or below, which may be worth noting.  He has stamina to prove also, but at least Twister is having the odd winner now, hope for a strong latter half of the month. If he is a1, I could see him running ok, but he is open to attack from better treated rivals now. The market could well guide and of the bigger priced ones, he’d be the most annoying I suppose, but just too many questions for me given his profile to date. Sam isn’t here either.

The rest had even more questions- Class/level of form for Gangster and Chanceanotherfive, as well as stamina. If Rock On F takes this aged 11, so be it, not for me. Red Giant is woefully out of form and evidently impossible to trust for all that a return to anywhere near his best could put him in the mix. Thelingy has questions also, fitness, stamina, 1lb above his highest winning mark, and the yard, as they can, are blowing hot and cold again. Hopefully the market weakness is a sign for him.  Graineyhill – surely not although maybe his last run was too bad to be true. 80s may be a bit harsh but he does have questions galore.

I think that’s the lot.

GL if playing, Josh

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

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  • A sole 12/1 winner yesterday. We try again .

    Mind Your Back……12/1
    13:00Ffos Las
    Leaving Home……..20/1
    14:00Ffos Las
    Crooks Peak……….14/1
    14:57Kempton
    Clondaw Fixer…….12/1
    14:50Sedgefield
    Evander…………….10/1
    15:25Sedgefield

    Mike

    Michael Dennis 17/10/20 10:11 PM Reply


  • A few for today,
    Ffos Las.
    1-00. Boher Lad 14-1 5p, lightly raced for a 13yo winning 5/30, 4/23 over distance , runs well after a break.
    3-10. Ballyandy 9-1 4p, ticks every box.
    3-45. was going to leave this one alone but Master Burbidge 20-1 might be worth a very small interest.
    Kempton.
    1-15. Little Tipsy 66-1 b365 and Now We’re Touring 125-1 bfsb both £1 ew, both have had a run over hurdles in the same race, Little Tipsy jumped ok and did finish the race out moving forward, Now We’re Touring jumping was all over the place and if not for that would have finished much nearer the winner.
    4-07. Mr Mafia 8-1, drops back in grade after a couple of decent runs in his last 4

    martin whittle 18/10/20 9:12 AM Reply


    • well the price on Boher Lad has doubled think i’ll count how many legs he has before putting any money on.

      martin whittle 18/10/20 9:55 AM Reply


  • Looks like another nail in the coffin of football after yesterday’s lunchtime fiasco. Consistently inconsistent. Does anyone take this ‘sport’ seriously anymore?

    Chris Albin 18/10/20 9:41 AM Reply


    • Chris if you can RTE or TV4 there you should watch the gaelic football all ireland season,its been compacted so its a knockout every weekend from oct to christmas(covid permitting),real man to man stuff.

      gerry flynn 18/10/20 1:31 PM Reply


      • Gerry do you know how can watch RTE??
        iv tried quite a few times to find it on the big weekend meets over in Ireland, but never with any success

        Ryan 18/10/20 3:43 PM Reply


        • Ryan,i think you can access it on sky,it may be you have to go to options and other channels and that should bring up a list of channels not on main menu.

          gerry flynn 18/10/20 4:54 PM Reply


    • Absolute debacle Chris, terrible decisions all the way through,looks like Liverpool will suffer now with Van Dyke out for possibly 8 months, and also dont know yet how bad Thiago injury is!, I would like to see in same freeze frame when stopped and blown up as well as offside frame the frame at time of ball leaving team mate because i am not convinced they are freezing it correctly ie: fractionally after ball has been distributed

      Anonymous 18/10/20 4:00 PM Reply


      • Sorry Chris , Brian Wright sent it forgot to put name to it.

        Anonymous 18/10/20 4:01 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    No bets
    Colin

    cleafe 18/10/20 9:42 AM Reply


  • I had a very decent day yesterday with

    Sir Busker 4th at 80/1 and placed w/o the fav at 22/1 paying for the day and the returns from Art Power 4th at 11/1 and Raeeq at 5/1 5th being pure profit. See, don’t have to find winners to make profits!!

    Filthy ew betting. Love it.

    Some very nice jumping types out today. Welsh Champion, Durham National, a hot novice chase at Ffos Lass

    Horse I’m most keen on is THE DOMION EFFECT in the last at Kempton

    Rick 18/10/20 11:11 AM Reply


  • Pretty good day yesterday. Plenty of winners and a few good place efforts. The list did well and so did my picks eventually.
    No flat racing today so I’ll sit and watch Josh’s tip win. 🙂

    Warren Bottomley 18/10/20 12:35 PM Reply


    • Quite like your methods and reading your posts, are you just a flat man then Warren? Does that mean you’ll be hibernating for the winter? Can send warm soup and blankets if needed 🙂

      Chris Albin 18/10/20 12:48 PM Reply


      • Thanks chris.
        I’ll be here in the cold months doing the better aw races plus as it’s quieter this time of year although I don’t think either flat or national hunt really stops and starts anymore I’ll be putting geegeez through its paces with the query tool and getting to grips with it better and hopefully find a few more angles to add to the dozen or so I have that work in conjunction with the video replay watching I currently use. 🙂

        Warren Bottomley 18/10/20 3:38 PM Reply


  • iv just got back from playing football so iv totally missed all the mornings horses and chat
    And also the price on BB, backed in heavily here Josh hope it wins for you mate !!!

    Ryan 18/10/20 3:40 PM Reply


    • Ha, thanks Ryan – i’ve got ‘the value’ it appears, so in any case, something to cling to when it all goes wrong haha. Haven’t been reading it too badly since I focussed more on the C2s+, a better jump at last and Court M clings on, such is the game. Hopefully Brian can do the job, he won’t have a better chance at winning a C2 again I don’t think. No excuse today.

      Josh 18/10/20 3:48 PM Reply


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