Members Daily Post: 17/10/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

4.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: to be updated  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

4.31 Market Rasen 

#1 – Court Master – 1 point win – 9/2 (gen) 2nd, head  -1

#2 – Beggars Wishes – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen)  UP 25/1  -1

write up at the bottom of the post, as of 8am… that’s all for today from me. Sunday’s post will be up at some point today, and there may be tips which will follow Sunday morning, update around 10am. 

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2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

(All ‘any odds’) (3/25,9p, -6.2)

1.43 Strat – Project Mars 2/1 3rd, -1

2.46 MR – New Moon 40/1 UP -1

 

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

NTD

(2/25, 5p, -15.2)

2.53 Strat – Templehills (8/1<) 10/3 WON 10/3 > 6/1

3.21 – MR – Kingofthecotswolds (8/1<) 14/1 ‘DNQ’ (on 8am prices) UP

4.31 MR – Luckoftehdraw (any, 10/1< best) 11/2 UP

5.06 MR – Imperial Acolyte (any, 10/1< best) 15/2 Fell

E Lavelle (14/1<)

(2/13,6p, -4.25)

3.28 Strat – Tierra Verde 14/1 UP 33/1 -1

 

4.Other/Updates

 

Market Rasen Video Preview : 4.31, C2 Handicap Chase

The below is in two parts… the first 20 minutes the usual ‘walk through’, hopefully to help in your puzzle solving mission (some ‘trends’ / trainer records, who’s proven in conditions, well handicapped, the pace set up, trainer form etc) … in the 2nd half I flick through all the runners in a bit more depth 

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Beggars Wishes – The question with this lad is obviously fitness and wellbeing, which I have to take on trust, and judge against price. I think if he was turning up here on the back of a half decent run in the last few weeks, he’d be near the top of the market, if not the one to beat given his form. I’ve no doubt that if he retains any of his ability he’s thrown in from this mark and when last seen he was running from a high perch, the yard were maybe iffy, and something was obviously amiss LTO. The horse has dropped 16lb on his last four starts. The yard are going well again after some time in the doldrums. It can only have been sickness, unless the cyclical nature of the handicapping beast. Sean is riding out of his skin again, which is great to see.

Looking at who’s available, if I had a string of jumpers and wanted a retainer, I think i’d pick him. Who would you retain? 

The horse is 3/3 on seasonal returns, so they can get him fit at home and the break doesn’t concern me in that sense. More a case of whether they want him a1. The fact they return to course where the horse has won and a race Bowen has won a few times, makes me think he’s ready. He seems to handle all sorts of ground and can be put anywhere. I suspect Sean will sit behind the pace. The market may well guide as to his chance, but i’ll roll the dice. If he could get back to the level of form shown at Haydock and Newton Abbot, this lot would be in trouble. Of what these have achieved over fences to date, esp handicaps, he does have the best form. But it is old form, and he needs to get back to somewhere near that level.

Court Master – solid, unexposed, will race up there, sound jumper, may even come on for LTO. I don’t think he beat much at Warwick, he did have the run of the race, he’s up in class, on a career high mark, and has to step forward again. Of course, given his profile, that’s possible and he hasn’t done much wrong over fences. This isn’t the deepest of C2s and maybe he could take it. I would probably fancy him over the Nicholls horse at the prices. He never seems to win by far so maybe the capper doesn’t have him. I was possibly a bit too dismissive on my first look through, but his price seems generous enough, especially as he may get a freebie on the front end, or in any case be in the perfect spot. This could be a clever bit of C2 placing. With the rail movements this is now 2m6f+ so you will need to stay, and that’s not a problem for him I don’t think, whereas it may be for a few others.

Of the rest…

Red Risk – 3/1 fav as a I write and obviously a big danger. If he hacks up here, so be it. I do wonder from this mark if they may have pencilled in another target and use this as a stepping stone. It’s hard to know whether he’s well handicapped but of course is unexposed and may have strengthened again over the summer. It was an eye-popping RPR LTO. He wasn’t put under much pressure at Ludlow, the race fell apart a bit, has fitness to prove, decent ground is an unknown, and he does have to prove he’s better than this mark. For a 3s shot there are enough questions in my view but if he’s a 150s horse, this lot are toast. And the yard couldn’t be in better form.  At the prices I was happy to take him on. He should at least have to race/scrap here, jumping under pressure, which wasn’t the case last time, and a chance this happens quick enough for him on this ground.

And really, I didn’t fancy much else/want to be with anything else. If one of those three doesn’t take this then I suppose I haven’t read it very well at all! I probably shouldn’t have said that.

IF Ashoka stays, he could be banging on the door. What with the rail movements his stamina is even more of a question. They haven’t tried him over this far before, which may be revealing, or now 8, this is possibly what he needs. I’m not sure, the odd question and it could just be he’s a C3 handicap chaser at best.

Fidux and Luckofthedraw are so so – they have the form to mix it here at their best. And maybe one will take it, but I didn’t know why they should improve on recent efforts, and thought something else may have more in hand. The former just looks anchored by his mark, always finding one or two too good, and he was poor enough LTO. He’s hard to place. If he takes this then it will be good for Super’s formlines, but I had my doubts. A simple repeat of a recent performance I don’t think will be good enough and I wasn’t sure where more was coming from.

Luckofthedraw – well he’s so good fresh (and that may be the best time to catch him) that I don’t want to assume he will come on for his last run. Or maybe all of Twister’s chasers are just behind. Well, that ‘autumn trainer’ angle isn’t firing although I suppose he was due a duff autumn, after so many years of consistency. Typical. They’ll all fly in next month no doubt! Although he has been running plenty of exposed/older horses. Given the race he ran in LTO here he’d won the year before, I’ll assume that was the target. I think he’s open to attack from better handicapped rivals now, even though he’s on his last winning mark. Maybe this race has been the plan. But i’ll leave him and if he takes it, fair enough.

Mellow Ben’s jumping can be a bit ‘scratchy’ and he was stuffed in this last year. He has questions going right handed and I didn’t think he’d be good enough. Not for me this time.

Louis Vac Pouch… ah, these colours. Mr ‘Handbrake’ as his owner is known on twitter. I’m not sure why! I’d best make sure not to be libelled. This horse will win at some point, and maybe the market will guide as to when, as with many horses in these colours. Most of Kirby’s have been badly needing the run (visually, based on paddock inspection… no idea where I got that info from! Not long now :)), as his trainer form stats would indicate. There’s no hood today either which makes me think it’s not today. But on the flip side, this horse does have plenty of ability under the bonnet and has gone well fresh before. Would I fall off my seat if he took this, probably not. Although, also a stamina niggle, esp if he’s free without the hood. But he has won over 25f over hurdles. I expect he will have a nice little sighter out the back, make some sort of effort, before a lack of fitness tells. Hopefully. It would be typical for him to be a1 here having said all the above, smashed in, away he goes 🙂 That Secret Investor form from Ayr is clearly solid, as is his Festival run LTO. They should find something for him.

Ravenhill Road – I’ll assume he will need it also, most of Sue’s do, although the odd one does surprise of course. This one has bled in the past and may well want it softer over fences. The ground is a question and the level of his form is only so so. I was happy to leave him here.

That leaves one I think. If Rose Sea Has takes it, well, i’ll be pouring another beer. It may be a fitting end to the day after Calvert-Lewin scores a lunchtime hat-trick, having burst through our last line of defence, trying to play offside on the half way line. He has far too many questions – fitness, ground, ability for a race like this, class, and stamina.

Pace… well Court Master will sit handy. He doesn’t have to lead but Brendan will go forward if nothing else does. Cook may be aggressive, before his blows up. Cobden likes to be handy if he can but on an inexperienced/unexposed one, won’t be ultra aggressive I wouldn’t have thought. I hope Sean doesn’t have Beggars too far off the pace -if he’s held up, then today isn’t the day I doubt. The rest will tuck in. Luck / Mello midfield maybe, Fidux and LVP nearer the back, Ashoka – no idea, maybe mid div. Rose may try and hold a prom position for a time.

So, two against the field. It was just going to be Beggars in truth but as I was writing, I talked myself into Court Master also. Hopefully fitness, race position, progressive profile counts for plenty. He’s a solid jumper also. Beggars can overhaul him 2 out, those two clear.

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Kerry Lee

A quick mention for her after another winner at Uttoxter, of what could turn out to be a novice handicap worth following. It had plenty of depth, on paper at least. I do have a Kerry Lee ‘Jumps Profiles’ angle which in part focussed on hers higher up the handicap. Alas. He was 25s Thursday morning also, not a penny on. Urgh.

It may well have been better to just back all her handicap chasers for a while (those with 0-3 handicap runs have always been the place to focus)…

8/24, 9p with all chase runners so far in 2020, 7 different horses winning. I think they’re back in rude health.

She had quite the lull with her chasers for a couple of years pre 2020. Again, maybe the cyclical nature of handicapping – ageing chasers, caught in the grip, regressing – new blood taking time to source, run and mature, ready for fences. Still, good to see them go well as they do know what they’re doing.  Her brother, Tom Lee, helps place them also, and Richard is no doubt still imparting advice. They tend to jump and gallop and it will be interesting if more unexposed chasers appear in the next few weeks, having had quiet times in maiden hurdles etc. They could all be worth keeping an eye on.

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That’s all from me for Saturday. Enjoy the afternoon’s fare and best of luck with any bets as always.

Josh

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

21 Comments

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  • Josh,

    At around 7 to 8 mins in, you look for the record of Beggar’s Wishes at the course, and switch to HBR. Just in case you didn’t know, on Geegeez Instant Expert, if you click the record in any field (in this case, click the green 1-1-3 for Beggar’s Wishes) and the field expands to show the race by race record that the data field summarises.

    Rob 16/10/20 5:05 PM Reply


    • Hi Rob,

      Yes – why do I never do that?! Thanks for the reminder- I am aware of that, somewhere, deep in my brain- but clearly don’t use it enough – but yes, I should be expanding those instant expert lines. It’s a much easier way of trying to demonstrate such things. I don’t think i’ve done that in any video to date, tut. Must do better. I’ll try to remember to do so.
      cheers, Josh

      Josh 16/10/20 6:04 PM Reply


  • I pencilled in Demachine last night while doing my quick scan of the cards,then i remembered i had an email for tts,and there was kery lee as one of the 3 trainers to follow at Uttoxeter,managed to get the 20/1,biggest winner so far this season.The Gavin Priestly system is flying along also 10/1 winner today Captain Drake,don’t cost a penny for a bit of fun betting.
    Seems ages when we were talking about her ability to source older horses and getting them to run up sequences.Theres is only so far you can push that strategy before the legs give out and the handicapper takes note.
    Probably the reason she went fairly quiet is she has refined her approach and started to produce her own chasers from the bottom, up in hurdles and bumpers and bring them along gradually with a view to having a few good ones to go to war with in time.
    Certainly a trainer to take note of in novice chases over the winter.Todays winner looks to have a bright future,jumped nicely from fence to fence and a bit of an engine to run on at the business end.

    gerry flynn 16/10/20 8:10 PM Reply


  • Two places at 9/1 and 7/1 on Friday.

    I am back to dutching for Saturday, but just for the day. I am taking on Stradivarius but do like him at odds against.

    1.20 Ascot – Sovereign – forget his last run, lightly raced this season, O’Brien and Ryan Moore combo, trainer in form. And, Spanish Mission – has won his last two, has still got improvement to come, Trainer in OK form, has won in this class. Both 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 16/10/20 8:46 PM Reply


    • PS I also like Alternative fact in the 4.15 at Ascot, the Balmoral Handicap I think.

      Martin Colwell 16/10/20 8:48 PM Reply


  • Josh, Don’t worry Rose Sea Has can’t win according to HRB ratings for a C2 hcp chase. I wish I hadn’t said that now 🙂

    Chris Albin 16/10/20 9:25 PM Reply


  • A nice winner yesterday 11/1 plus a 22/1 2nd if you did ew.
    There is a few today so tread carefully.

    Hortzadar……….40/1
    16:15Ascot
    Suzi’s Connoisseur..14/1
    15:10Catterick
    Parys Mountain…..25/1
    16:50Catterick
    Gordalan…………..12/1
    17:25Catterick
    Bogoss Du Perret….12/1
    16:03Stratford
    Kingofthecotswolds…14/1
    15:21Market Rasen
    Ashoka………………..14/1
    16:31Market Rasen
    Newscaster……………20/1
    19:30Wolverhampton
    Betsey Trotter………..14/1
    19:30Wolverhampton

    Mike

    Michael Dennis 16/10/20 10:13 PM Reply


    • now that was close. well done on bogoss 🙂

      warren bottomley 17/10/20 4:21 PM Reply


      • Phew!!! Nose, Lost a few by the same margin, our turn this time.

        Mike

        Michael Dennis 17/10/20 4:42 PM Reply


  • My three for Ascot
    Kynren 4:15 ASCOT Greenside maybe
    Nazeef 3.05
    3:40 ASCOT Addeybb
    And Halimi at Leopardstown 16:45 jock is in super form

    Pab 17/10/20 4:25 AM Reply


    • Kynren seems to be a cliff horse to me at the prices he goes off at. He can run into a place but does struggle to get his head in front.

      I do like Addeybb as a horse and so can see here going well.

      I was on Nazeef when he last won but he has had a hard season relatively and I have the worry he may be over the top now?

      Good luck with the picks. Martin

      Martin Colwell 17/10/20 8:46 AM Reply


  • A very tough day and I;’ve fired a few arrows at Ascot, all mud lovers, all 1 ew with enhanced places unless stated differently:

    Broome
    Art Power 2 ew
    Gold Wand
    Sir Busker ew and ew w/o Palace Pier
    Japan
    Raaeq 5 unit ew

    Rick 17/10/20 8:48 AM Reply


  • Cracking video Josh
    Sadly tho cant bring myself to have a bet in the race. Was at it last night and again this morning

    Ryan 17/10/20 8:51 AM Reply


    • Thanks Ryan, oh that may prove to be very wise, we shall see! Did think Paul’s was worth opposing at 3s which auto creates value elsewhere but whether I’m on the right ones, we shall see. Not too many results in that would be surprising in truth so we shall see. Good little contest.

      Josh 17/10/20 9:38 AM Reply


      • Yes i 100% thought the Nicholls horse worth taking on. Also agreed with you on Beggars wishes as mark has come down fairly quickly. But all taken on if there to win, found myself writing the same thing next to most of the runners. i couldn’t rule out Luckofthedraw, Ravenhill rd, Beggars wishes. LVP has the best form in my eyes with the 2nd to Secret inv on good grnd. Mellow Ben and Fidux both fit but as you say why should they win today. And the last point which i can never get right is Court Master, last run only beating 120 rated horses and not by much. He’s obviously going the right way and younger but he’d need to step up quite a bit and its whether he’s good enough and im doubting that of that last run not being that impressive. But on the other hand gets a good chunk of weight from most of the rest, couldn’t call it so just a learning race for me

        Ryan 17/10/20 10:29 AM Reply


  • Luckily not an original thought in my head today as looking back i did my nuts this day last year, i do like the look of 4 of Mike’s longshots and will do a L15 on those.
    Good luck if your having a go today but i think i’ll keep my money for another day.

    martin whittle 17/10/20 9:53 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    Traveller was a good winner yesterday, very surprised that there is no bet today, the potential bets have bad draws or the going can well be an issue so not worth the risk today
    Colin

    cleafe 17/10/20 10:23 AM Reply


  • 1 winner and 4 places for the list yesterday.
    usual Saturday tough and competitive but ill put my preferred selection in capitals as I’ve been doing the last few saturdays just for fun.
    todays c3+ and c4+ aw video replay list. 🙂
    ASCOT
    13-20 spanish mission / Stradivarius / DAWN PATROL
    13-55 STARMAN / dream of dreams / glen shiel / sonaiyla
    14-20 wonderful tonight / ANTONIA DE VEGA / dame malliot
    15-05 circus maximus / THE REVENANT / palace pier
    15-40 SKALLETI / mishriff / pyledriver
    16-15 hortzader / raaeq / GRAIGNES / njord
    CATTERICK
    15-45 COUNT D’ORSAY /rayong / dark shot
    WOLVERHAMPON
    19-30 YOLO AGAIN / inevitable outcome / melodic charm
    20-00 HERE AND NOW / carlos felix
    my picks
    STARMAN 17/2 3yr old on the upgrade made dakota gold look ordinary last time out definetly more to come whether today is the day is to be seen but a potential star in the making.
    THE REVENANT 11/2 carried on from last season with a win in good style in testing conditions and looks the main danger to palace pier which has the form of the field in my opinion but i dont think the ground is gonna play out in palace piers favour today.
    SKALLETI 17/2 showed a decisive turn of speed in a group 2 in heavy going last time out and beat the ark winner the time before. gonna be there or there abouts on that form.
    GRAIGNES 40/1 E/W / HORTZADER 40/1 E/W couldnt choose between these 2 so ive gone for both. GRAIGNES race didnt pan out last time but should benefit from the larger field today and on french form definitely has a chance.
    HORTZADER has been fairly consistent all season a small blip last time out but is potentially well treated today oh and jamie spencer is on board which counts for alot on the straight course

    as awlays good luck today 🙂

    warren bottomley 17/10/20 12:55 PM Reply


  • Stradivarius came twelve

    Pab 17/10/20 1:52 PM Reply


  • I decided to do Court Master, getting chinned on the line is always annoying, i was shouting go away Fidux as they jumped the last, ah well, back to the drawing board and that was close….onto Cheltenham next week as things move up a gear.

    Stewart 17/10/20 5:14 PM Reply


    • That’s jumps racing.. Court slow at the last two and that has cost him, I thought he’d hand on/out stay him after last but not to be. I think at morning odds I’d go with him ever time over Fidux who was around 11/2 I think. That’s the game. At least he boosts Super’s form to some degree. He was prob out stayed LTO and drop 2lb and back to this CD, but I won’t over think a head defeat. That’s racing. Fine margins as always.

      Josh 17/10/20 5:18 PM Reply


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