2.Jumps Profiles 20/21
3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)
4.31 Market Rasen
#1 – Court Master – 1 point win – 9/2 (gen) 2nd, head -1
#2 – Beggars Wishes – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) UP 25/1 -1
write up at the bottom of the post, as of 8am… that’s all for today from me. Sunday’s post will be up at some point today, and there may be tips which will follow Sunday morning, update around 10am.
2.Jumps Profiles 20/21
(All ‘any odds’) (3/25,9p, -6.2)
1.43 Strat – Project Mars 2/1 3rd, -1
2.46 MR – New Moon 40/1 UP -1
3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)
(2/25, 5p, -15.2)
2.53 Strat – Templehills (8/1<) 10/3 WON 10/3 > 6/1
3.21 – MR – Kingofthecotswolds (8/1<) 14/1 ‘DNQ’ (on 8am prices) UP
4.31 MR – Luckoftehdraw (any, 10/1< best) 11/2 UP
5.06 MR – Imperial Acolyte (any, 10/1< best) 15/2 Fell
E Lavelle (14/1<)
3.28 Strat – Tierra Verde 14/1 UP 33/1 -1
Market Rasen Video Preview : 4.31, C2 Handicap Chase
The below is in two parts… the first 20 minutes the usual ‘walk through’, hopefully to help in your puzzle solving mission (some ‘trends’ / trainer records, who’s proven in conditions, well handicapped, the pace set up, trainer form etc) … in the 2nd half I flick through all the runners in a bit more depth
Beggars Wishes – The question with this lad is obviously fitness and wellbeing, which I have to take on trust, and judge against price. I think if he was turning up here on the back of a half decent run in the last few weeks, he’d be near the top of the market, if not the one to beat given his form. I’ve no doubt that if he retains any of his ability he’s thrown in from this mark and when last seen he was running from a high perch, the yard were maybe iffy, and something was obviously amiss LTO. The horse has dropped 16lb on his last four starts. The yard are going well again after some time in the doldrums. It can only have been sickness, unless the cyclical nature of the handicapping beast. Sean is riding out of his skin again, which is great to see.
Looking at who’s available, if I had a string of jumpers and wanted a retainer, I think i’d pick him. Who would you retain?
The horse is 3/3 on seasonal returns, so they can get him fit at home and the break doesn’t concern me in that sense. More a case of whether they want him a1. The fact they return to course where the horse has won and a race Bowen has won a few times, makes me think he’s ready. He seems to handle all sorts of ground and can be put anywhere. I suspect Sean will sit behind the pace. The market may well guide as to his chance, but i’ll roll the dice. If he could get back to the level of form shown at Haydock and Newton Abbot, this lot would be in trouble. Of what these have achieved over fences to date, esp handicaps, he does have the best form. But it is old form, and he needs to get back to somewhere near that level.
Court Master – solid, unexposed, will race up there, sound jumper, may even come on for LTO. I don’t think he beat much at Warwick, he did have the run of the race, he’s up in class, on a career high mark, and has to step forward again. Of course, given his profile, that’s possible and he hasn’t done much wrong over fences. This isn’t the deepest of C2s and maybe he could take it. I would probably fancy him over the Nicholls horse at the prices. He never seems to win by far so maybe the capper doesn’t have him. I was possibly a bit too dismissive on my first look through, but his price seems generous enough, especially as he may get a freebie on the front end, or in any case be in the perfect spot. This could be a clever bit of C2 placing. With the rail movements this is now 2m6f+ so you will need to stay, and that’s not a problem for him I don’t think, whereas it may be for a few others.
Of the rest…
Red Risk – 3/1 fav as a I write and obviously a big danger. If he hacks up here, so be it. I do wonder from this mark if they may have pencilled in another target and use this as a stepping stone. It’s hard to know whether he’s well handicapped but of course is unexposed and may have strengthened again over the summer. It was an eye-popping RPR LTO. He wasn’t put under much pressure at Ludlow, the race fell apart a bit, has fitness to prove, decent ground is an unknown, and he does have to prove he’s better than this mark. For a 3s shot there are enough questions in my view but if he’s a 150s horse, this lot are toast. And the yard couldn’t be in better form. At the prices I was happy to take him on. He should at least have to race/scrap here, jumping under pressure, which wasn’t the case last time, and a chance this happens quick enough for him on this ground.
And really, I didn’t fancy much else/want to be with anything else. If one of those three doesn’t take this then I suppose I haven’t read it very well at all! I probably shouldn’t have said that.
IF Ashoka stays, he could be banging on the door. What with the rail movements his stamina is even more of a question. They haven’t tried him over this far before, which may be revealing, or now 8, this is possibly what he needs. I’m not sure, the odd question and it could just be he’s a C3 handicap chaser at best.
Fidux and Luckofthedraw are so so – they have the form to mix it here at their best. And maybe one will take it, but I didn’t know why they should improve on recent efforts, and thought something else may have more in hand. The former just looks anchored by his mark, always finding one or two too good, and he was poor enough LTO. He’s hard to place. If he takes this then it will be good for Super’s formlines, but I had my doubts. A simple repeat of a recent performance I don’t think will be good enough and I wasn’t sure where more was coming from.
Luckofthedraw – well he’s so good fresh (and that may be the best time to catch him) that I don’t want to assume he will come on for his last run. Or maybe all of Twister’s chasers are just behind. Well, that ‘autumn trainer’ angle isn’t firing although I suppose he was due a duff autumn, after so many years of consistency. Typical. They’ll all fly in next month no doubt! Although he has been running plenty of exposed/older horses. Given the race he ran in LTO here he’d won the year before, I’ll assume that was the target. I think he’s open to attack from better handicapped rivals now, even though he’s on his last winning mark. Maybe this race has been the plan. But i’ll leave him and if he takes it, fair enough.
Mellow Ben’s jumping can be a bit ‘scratchy’ and he was stuffed in this last year. He has questions going right handed and I didn’t think he’d be good enough. Not for me this time.
Louis Vac Pouch… ah, these colours. Mr ‘Handbrake’ as his owner is known on twitter. I’m not sure why! I’d best make sure not to be libelled. This horse will win at some point, and maybe the market will guide as to when, as with many horses in these colours. Most of Kirby’s have been badly needing the run (visually, based on paddock inspection… no idea where I got that info from! Not long now :)), as his trainer form stats would indicate. There’s no hood today either which makes me think it’s not today. But on the flip side, this horse does have plenty of ability under the bonnet and has gone well fresh before. Would I fall off my seat if he took this, probably not. Although, also a stamina niggle, esp if he’s free without the hood. But he has won over 25f over hurdles. I expect he will have a nice little sighter out the back, make some sort of effort, before a lack of fitness tells. Hopefully. It would be typical for him to be a1 here having said all the above, smashed in, away he goes 🙂 That Secret Investor form from Ayr is clearly solid, as is his Festival run LTO. They should find something for him.
Ravenhill Road – I’ll assume he will need it also, most of Sue’s do, although the odd one does surprise of course. This one has bled in the past and may well want it softer over fences. The ground is a question and the level of his form is only so so. I was happy to leave him here.
That leaves one I think. If Rose Sea Has takes it, well, i’ll be pouring another beer. It may be a fitting end to the day after Calvert-Lewin scores a lunchtime hat-trick, having burst through our last line of defence, trying to play offside on the half way line. He has far too many questions – fitness, ground, ability for a race like this, class, and stamina.
Pace… well Court Master will sit handy. He doesn’t have to lead but Brendan will go forward if nothing else does. Cook may be aggressive, before his blows up. Cobden likes to be handy if he can but on an inexperienced/unexposed one, won’t be ultra aggressive I wouldn’t have thought. I hope Sean doesn’t have Beggars too far off the pace -if he’s held up, then today isn’t the day I doubt. The rest will tuck in. Luck / Mello midfield maybe, Fidux and LVP nearer the back, Ashoka – no idea, maybe mid div. Rose may try and hold a prom position for a time.
So, two against the field. It was just going to be Beggars in truth but as I was writing, I talked myself into Court Master also. Hopefully fitness, race position, progressive profile counts for plenty. He’s a solid jumper also. Beggars can overhaul him 2 out, those two clear.
A quick mention for her after another winner at Uttoxter, of what could turn out to be a novice handicap worth following. It had plenty of depth, on paper at least. I do have a Kerry Lee ‘Jumps Profiles’ angle which in part focussed on hers higher up the handicap. Alas. He was 25s Thursday morning also, not a penny on. Urgh.
It may well have been better to just back all her handicap chasers for a while (those with 0-3 handicap runs have always been the place to focus)…
8/24, 9p with all chase runners so far in 2020, 7 different horses winning. I think they’re back in rude health.
She had quite the lull with her chasers for a couple of years pre 2020. Again, maybe the cyclical nature of handicapping – ageing chasers, caught in the grip, regressing – new blood taking time to source, run and mature, ready for fences. Still, good to see them go well as they do know what they’re doing. Her brother, Tom Lee, helps place them also, and Richard is no doubt still imparting advice. They tend to jump and gallop and it will be interesting if more unexposed chasers appear in the next few weeks, having had quiet times in maiden hurdles etc. They could all be worth keeping an eye on.
That’s all from me for Saturday. Enjoy the afternoon’s fare and best of luck with any bets as always.