Members Daily Post: 16/10/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

4.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: to be updated  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

None. 

 

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

(All ‘any odds’) (3/22,8p, -4.2)

1.50 Uttox – Killer Clown (any, 11/1< best) 9/1 UP -1 (in effect bought down sadly, very early on mind)

3.40 Fake – Mr Caffrey 18/1 3rd -1

 

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

NTD

(1/22, 5p, -16.5)

1.35 Fake – Bit On The Side (any, 10/1< best) 4/5 UP -1

3.40 Fake – One Forty Seven (any, 10/1< best) 11/1 BD -1

 

E Lavelle (14/1<)

(2/12,6p, -3.25)

1.35 Fake – Jubilympics 9/4 WON 9/4 

1.50 Uttox – Killer Clown 9/1 UP -1

 

4.Other/Updates

 

Saturday… I will look at the C2 handicap chase from Market Rasen – 10 line up, so something to get stuck into. No idea if the odds will allow a bet but on Friday morning i’ll record a ‘preview video’ that may be of use, even if I end up leaving the race. I’ll get Saturday’s post up at some point Friday morning, inc the video.

That will be it for my ‘big race’ focus – it steps up a gear next weekend – Cheltenham returns, Aintree on the Sunday – i’ll be hoping it isn’t too wet up there during the week, so that Super can take her chance in The Old Roan, which is the current plan, but she won’t run if it’s soft – the weekend after that we have The Charlie Hall meeting. 

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Additional stats/thoughts 

Killer Clown... the purpose of these occasional segments isn’t to sway you either way as such, but to put some ‘meat on the bones’ esp if you use any of the content as a ‘way in’, while also offering the odd snippet which may be useful today, but moving forwards… notebooks at the ready again 🙂 Or just something of interest to read!

There’s maybe some questions over current ‘trainer form’ as I type, but this time of year always tricky, esp if many are needing the run – that doesn’t mean the yard are ‘out of form’ as such – enough of Emma’s are placing to give hope to those who have the odd angle based on her runners!! 1/26, 9p in the last 30 days, 0/14,4p last 14 as I write. But, they could be going better.

This is a Novice handicap chase and with 18 runners at that! Plenty of educated guessing but trainer stats/methods can be useful… since the start of 2015… Emma, in…

In Novice Handicap Chases / Horse had 0 chase runs (under rules)

26 bets / 9 wins / 12p / 35% sr / +25 SP / +30 BFSP / AE 1.84 

They’re decent. They include a winner at Uttox and those with 0 runs this season… 5/15, 8p, +13. So, the evidence suggests they try to get these types fit first time up – it makes sense you’d want them to be sharp on first run over fences, to reduce risk of accidents/tired errors late on.

Emma’s overall record with ‘handicap debutants’ is solid in the last 5 years, the win/place % remaining consistent in that time… 14/59, 23p, +24. 

The horse... well just to note he ran in one PtP and he hacked up in that. Pres was in 3rd that day, and while such form may not amount to much, he’s now a 120s chaser, having won at Fontwell on his seasonal return a few days back. It may be significant that Ben Jones is here riding here. The horse has had a wind op. The market may well guide, we shall see.

Killer Clown looks like he will win races/chases. Hopefully this race!  I should also note that he’s makes Paul Ferguson’s ‘Jumper To Follow’ book, when touring the yards – that is significant, given I think he visits most yards when pulling it together, and does talk to connections – Killer Clown is one of 6 horses mentioned for this yard, which makes me think they like him/excited for the season ahead. Time will tell! In any case, that novice hncp chase ‘micro’ angle above may be worth keeping an eye on moving forward.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

32 Comments

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  • A place and a loser (4th!) on Thursday.

    On to Uttoxeter on Friday:

    1.50, Young Bull – this is his debut over fences, 3/5 over hurdles, trainer in form, won on this ground and in this class and at this distance. 1 point each way.
    3.23, Mount Windsor – down in class here, trainer in form, has won in this class, runs from off the pace. 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 15/10/20 9:03 PM Reply


  • It would be good to have some more ratings as an extra guide (G, H and I ) last season.

    Geoff Wylde 15/10/20 11:07 PM Reply


    • Hi Geoff – yep it’s on my list – HRB ratings will return, I just need to do a quick bit of research into what’s best to highlight / how useful etc. Agree they’re useful context for any puzzle solvers, if not systematically. I’ll try and get that done today so they return from tomorrow onwards.
      Josh

      Josh 16/10/20 8:17 AM Reply


  • No luck again yesterday but we go again today.

    Alfred Richardson…..14/1
    16:55Newcastle
    Hunters Step…………10/1
    17:25Newcastle
    Peachey Carnehan…20/1
    20:30Newcastle

    Mike

    Michael Dennis 15/10/20 11:30 PM Reply


    • Boom for you!! Hunters Step a biggie 🙂

      Cheers, esp since the weekend has started now….

      Nige C 16/10/20 5:44 PM Reply


      • Nige C. Just a half price biggie.

        Mike

        Michael Dennis 16/10/20 7:58 PM Reply


        • …and then you go and get a biggie placed too!!! 🙂

          Nige C 16/10/20 9:47 PM Reply


  • No joy on Tuesday with Zap just failing to get up and Bravo Faisal barely making it out of the stalls.

    Results to date: 2/9 (5p) +8.6

    Tonight’s Newcastle picks

    7.30 Traveller 3/1 1pt win – like his trainer in a good vein of form, Buick on board.

    8.30 Deolali 15/2 0.5pt e/w 4 places
    8.30 Susie Javea 28/1 0.5pt e/w 4 places

    Splitting my stake in this one with a couple of fancies and 4 places on offer in multiple places. Sticking with Deolali who went very close last time out, with a similar run hoping he’ll be in the mix. Susie Javea is more speculative but run last time was ok – fading in the final furlong so the drop to 7f should suit. They also add 1st time cheekpieces. Those changes plus a decent draw and the price means I’m happy to roll the dice.

    Steven M 16/10/20 9:59 AM Reply


    • Well Done Steven.Great night’s work.

      Mr T 16/10/20 8:52 PM Reply


    • Nice work 🙂

      Nige C 16/10/20 9:49 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    7.30 Newcastle Traveller

    Chris yesterday mentioned that the 4 bets are hardly worth it now,
    Puchita 5/2 which was widely available when I put the bet up and won sp 9/4, the other winner Xcelente was 3/1 when put on, extra 2 N/Rs brought its price down winning sp 6/4, so 4 bets with £10 win
    5/2 return £35
    6/4 return £25
    stake £40 return £60 profit £20 or 50% now I do think yesterdays bets were worth it.
    Colin

    cleafe 16/10/20 10:13 AM Reply


    • All value bets are worth it Colin. Profit is long term and you need to build it on an ongoing basis. Profit never sleeps.

      Nothing wrong with a 5/2 winner.

      Martin Colwell 16/10/20 10:20 AM Reply


    • I certainly wasn’t pontificating anything and I think I can question others selections and betting strategies as much as I like just the as much as the next man. That’s what we’re here for isn’t it? Learn? Exchange opinions?

      I said ‘I think they’re unplayable now Colin – hope you got on early, good luck.’
      The reason I said that was because you were betting in 3 races with 4 bets and you needed 2 winners to make a profit and the prices were very short. I assumed you had bet early and had better prices to hold enough value and duly wished you well.
      Also you stated that you had changed your betting from what you originally posted so hopefully you made a little more.
      If you’re able to place 4 bets on 3 races at those prices and win long term it just means you’re investing more for a smaller profit with lower risk and if that’s what you like then I wish you all the best.
      I’m happy to have my opinions corrected but at those prices are you going to win 200 out of 300 bets? I don’t know.

      Chris Albin 16/10/20 11:22 AM Reply


      • Your comments, which were about your assessment of price, at the time you looked etc, were fine.

        I can’t be bothered to cover the topic of ‘value’ etc again, I don’t have the energy. Backing a 6/4 shot at 3/1 is superb, backing a horse with a starting price of 6/4, at 6/4, is lets say, questionable, in the long term.

        I don’t like the actual selections from readers being dissected, in a specific sense on that horse and certainly not in a tone of ‘why the hell have you picked this’ etc – questioning – ‘what do you like about X, or ‘are you not concerned over Y’ is fine – in a way that’s why always posting some brief notes can be useful, or knowing a pick is based on a system or method etc (you/Colin). Anyway, each to their own, you’re all rather good at getting that right here. Each to their own, and all positive horse thoughts, including just a horse you fancy etc, is great.

        My selections are different obviously – they can be questioned, picked apart, whatever. They can be heavily scrutinised, that’s fine with me. Provided it’s before the race! 🙂 We are all always learning

        Josh

        Josh 16/10/20 11:35 AM Reply


    • Colin, Colin , All I have to say is …………. it’s all about class and whose opinion you most trust and are willing to adhere to . You have that in abundance young man !! 😉
      lets leave it to the great wordsmith himself ( no not me 🙂 )
      “Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none.”
      ― William Shakespeare, All’s Well That Ends Well

      Have a fun knowledgeable day 🙂
      LGB ( in bits with his HRB 🙁 )
      I am slowly seeing the pitfalls of “backfitting” on HRB ( just scrapped over 100 systems ..lol 🙁 ) ……….. there seems to be a very very fine line indeed
      and i think i need counselling 😉

      GEORGE B 16/10/20 11:52 AM Reply


      • Hi George, as a fellow systems man…and also almost certainly guilty of back fitting, can I ask what you felt was the worst case of it (back fitting) was to scrap 100+ systems?
        I did pick up on a snippet of yours some months back (I think it was a system with a significant ingredient of ‘Previous run totals’) that I picked on and experimented with. It has been nicely in profit since so thanks for that. Look forward to any other ideas or pitfalls you have found.

        Regards
        Mark

        Mark Burns 16/10/20 12:33 PM Reply


        • HI Mark B.
          Thanks for daring to acknoweledge and reply to one of my not so numerous now ( i am trying my best to reign it in 😉 ) …… Don’t panic too much .. …. most of my cancellations are really due to that the systems i cancelled were so very close in criteria……. and so was receiving about 4 or 5 qualifiers for the same horse for almost the same reason 🙂 … i have just been painstakingly going through all the original 300 systems i had ..lol 🙂 and since Josh prompted me to use the “breakdown” button .. my life has been turned upside down quite literally and back to square one .. but for all the right and good reasons . But what i did find , was generally that i was setting up all these systems from 2017 – 2020 .. and that was fine i was finding some great returns .. but then found any racing results before or after those year parameters were returning loser loser after loser 🙁 . Now is that just “sods” law or is it as i have bracketed them “back fitted” the other bug bear at the moment in these horrific race effected days and months is the lack of system history testing/clarification available 🙁 . I am really just going through everything at the moment discarding unwanted/duplicate systems and looking to replace with new systems that i am interested in .. like first time headgear / gelded / sires / dams .. etc etc
          Its an ever evolving situation as we all know ….. the secret is to get to a “golden nuget” before anyone else does 😉 … especially like i am now with apprentice jockeys …. I think i have made the most money i ever made over the last couple of years by landing on some up and coming jockeys ( hollie doyle springs to mind 😉 and recently young Mr R dawson ….. money spinners if you catch them right in the right races 😉 . better go just update trainer notes into the HRB 😉
          cheers for now
          LGB

          GEORGE B 16/10/20 1:04 PM Reply


          • What is back fitting guys???!!??

            Ryan 16/10/20 1:46 PM Reply


            • Hmm, trying to think of the best way to describe…

              In short, when researching angles etc you need to try and apply logic to any rule – does it make sense? Rather than just researching and cherry picking what looks best.

              An example may be… backing a trainers runners on Monday’s, Tuesday’s and Thursdays… simply because their stats looked best on those three days – I can’t think of any logic for why you’d exclude Wednesday say.

              Same with class – there’s logic for focussing on C2 say, or maybe even C5/6. But a system which was say, based on, a trainers runners in C4 and C6 makes no logical sense – why not Class 4? – excluding just because the data doesn’t look great etc. That’s back fitting imo.

              No right or wrong as such, but it’s about confidence levels for the data repeating in live play/the real world, and that’s where logic helps.

              Josh

              Josh 16/10/20 2:13 PM Reply


            • emmmmmm very very difficult to say ..especially in words ………..My interpretation ( and it is only my basic thoughts) on “backfitting” in it’s gravest misuse is where you use current results and work backwards filling in all criterias that were attributed to those winners or if you just said for example a system was made up of every horse with the name “george” in its name and of course every horse with that name will not win every race thereafter … they might only win hurdle races for example and not any of the 200 other chase races . Whereas now i am creating systems stipulating my chosen categories delivering the best success percentages ( 40% + really) of each criteria chosen and then test them against previous years and i only stick with the ones that give me a 3 or 4 year profit stat year after year . Not a correct answer …… but iam still earning 😉 difficult…. difficult to explain ..and i know i haven’t really 🙁

              basically set your criterias first and then see how they performed over the last few years ?? ..nop i give up .. i know what i mean .. i don’t expect you to 😉 lol 🙂
              rgds
              LGB

              GEORGE B 16/10/20 2:15 PM Reply


              • Correlation is not necessarily causation when it comes to building systems or angles. Steady selection numbers, impact values and A/E are clearly important factors, if these are slowly decreasing then the value is decreasing. Ignore SP and go by BFSP. Use recent years only (3,4 or 5 max), manage your portfolio regularly, value is temporary.

                Chris Albin 16/10/20 2:47 PM Reply


                • I’d like to prove that correlation is not necessarily causation.
                  I never bloody win when that goon Derek Thompson is commentating.
                  I wonder if I turn the sound off that’ll make a difference?

                  Chris Albin 16/10/20 3:14 PM Reply


                  • hah hah …….. There’s another one of my oddities (and there are many 🙂 ) ….. when watching the live races through the betfair portal .. i always have the sound OFF … 1/. i can then concentrate on how all and more importantly my runners are coping in the race without the interference of some sometime over zealous commentators 2/. and Mrs LGB cannnot here me having a bet .. lol 🙂 .. WIN WIN situation 😉 … i almost find it weird now with a race commentary ..lol 🙂

                    Sorry LGB …. should be HRB..ing ! 🙂

                    GEORGE B 16/10/20 3:21 PM Reply


          • thanks for the reply George,ah yes I see that you could easily be repeating parts of systems and getting duplicate selections. I do as well, but not quite to that degree. Maybe 300 systems was the problem and you’ve found the answer. If I have duplicate selections from different systems, i tend to add to my original stake once (i.e. add 50%). 2017 – 2020 sounds like a fair way to go, most recent years over a long enough period. I do a similar thing but also check the results on a year by year basis and back to 2010 as well is the data exists. Keep up the good work George. Now I will go to sleep tonight thinking about apprentice jockeys…..but all for the right / profitable reasons!

            Mark Burns 16/10/20 2:44 PM Reply


  • Here here Martin, it is not for any of us to pontificate on the merits of other member’s tips. If Colin saw those as value I’m not going to dispute that, especially with his track record.

    Mark Curtis 16/10/20 10:36 AM Reply


  • Colins bets had been very successful over the years for me until about 18 months ago, when sadly on my part listened to other members view about larger prices and by cutting out the shorties from this method cost me, so I am backing all the bets which show up provided they meet my criteia draw, going, distance, proven, progressive and a few more, certainly no odds on unless N/Rs come into play.
    Open a Lloyds savers account couple of months ago, just to keep some money seperate from my main account and the interest is 0.01% so just trying to show that 50% return on those 4 bets is outstanding.
    Colin.
    PS thank you Martin and Mark for your comments

    cleafe 16/10/20 10:55 AM Reply


    • I really don’t see what all the fuss is about, I’ve not been rude or offensive. I expressed an opinion on the current value of someone’s selections. I’ve seen it many times on here where people later in the day have said the price is gone. How is my opinion any different?

      Chris Albin 16/10/20 11:31 AM Reply


      • It isn’t. It was fine. I don’t know what all the fuss is about either.

        Saying ‘i think the price has gone’ on a horse that is 6/4, having been 3/1, is a legitimate viewpoint! 🙂 Regardless of R4s etc which always complicate matters.

        Even the topic of value/price seems subjective, let alone the actual assessment of a horse’s price being very subjective!

        What a game.

        Let’s move on.

        Josh

        Josh 16/10/20 11:39 AM Reply


      • Chris, you certainly have not been rude or offensive, and I valued your opinion that is why I responded with my opinion in explaining why I put the shorties up, and you cannot always back horses at 10/1, sometime you have to back the shorties and this method I use are well backed normally, and from Nov through to Feb it can win from 30 to 50 points per month, so by including the shorties again will see if it can produce the same again we will see in time.
        Colin

        cleafe 16/10/20 2:49 PM Reply


  • A few really dodgy picks today so small stakes, £1 ew singles and a 10p ew L15
    Uttoxeter.
    1-50. Young Bull 12-1 5p
    2-23. The Eaglehaslanded 18-1 4p
    2-53. Onurbike 33-1 5p
    3-23. The Garrison 11-1

    martin whittle 16/10/20 11:12 AM Reply


    • A winner and a place, staked £11 returns £22-89

      martin whittle 16/10/20 4:26 PM Reply


  • normality has resumed for me thank god. glad to get that stint of the day job out of the way. so todays c3+ and turf and c4+ aw video replay list as follows.
    HAYDOCK
    13-45 hyperfocus / george bowen / commanche falls
    14-48 brentford hope / give it some teddy / mascat
    NEWCASTLE
    16-25 set in stone / mr coco bean / john jasper
    16-55 sudona / alfred richardson / cote d’azure
    18-30 waitingonanalibi / mirage mac / turnadot
    my picks
    ALFRED RICHARDSON 16/1 E/W finished running on last time out and from the looks of it need a longer trip which he has today. in fact his best recent result has been over this trip. has won around here in the past. and is slipping down the weights. a place at least not out of the question today

    dundalk sires
    16-45 frankus 12/1
    20-15 staligrad 11/2

    as always good luck today 🙂

    warren.bottomley 16/10/20 12:15 PM Reply


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