Members Daily Post: 14/10/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

4.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: to be updated  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

None. 

 

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

(All ‘any odds’) (3/19,8p, -1.2)

2.25 Weth – Sirwilliamwallace 33/1 UP 16/1… ran well to a point, before blowing up, although was a deep novice- be surprised if he couldn’t find a northern novice hncp chase for him soon, that style should get him competitive, provided fitness was the reason for fading, having dictated. Maybe further/softer, but hurdle form not too bad. 

4.10 Weth – Tintern Theatre 9/1 UP 15/2 -1

4.10 Weth – Storm Control (any, 12/1< best) 10/1 3rd 15/2, -1

4.10 Weth – Dimple 50/1 UP 66/1, -1

 

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

NTD

(1/19, 5p, -13.5)

4.10 Weth – Tintern Theatre (8/1<) 9/1 ‘DNQ’ (on 8am odds) UP

Lavelle

(1/9,5p, -3.5)

None.

 

4.Other/Updates

 

The week ahead…

It will be fairly quiet on here this week outside of the regular daily content – no big race trends/pointers as such – well, not on the flat – I won’t be doing anything for Champions Day, the quality of the horses never matching that of the going! Tipping wise – I am just focusing on the ‘big race’ jumps action, C1/C2/G3 hncps mainly, so until Adam steps into the hot seat, there won’t be much during the week until 1st Nov.  There is a Class 2 Handicap Chase at Market Rasen i’ll look at, and I may glance at Sunday’s Durham National. I’ll see if any ‘light touch’ stats/trends pointers for those, and any trainer records. Field sizes allowing. They may both cut up, we shall see. 

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A trainer angle/idea to absorb/muse over…

David Dennis quit training this year, after a relatively quiet time… 14/209 since start of 2019. 

Adam informs me that he’s now assistant trainer to Tom Symonds. Which is interesting. Arguably both have struggled to a point, and the former certainly hasn’t hit the heights having shown earlier promise. Whether together they can improve things, time will tell. Maybe the change of scenery/routine will do something for the horses and indeed David. I don’t know how many have moved with him to Tom’s but possibly most of them. 

Before Innisfree Lad won the 3.10 Hunt (arguably lucky to do so) ALL horses who were having their first start for a new trainer, having been trained by David Dennis on their last start, were… 10/46, 19p, +68 BFSP

Whether those running for Symonds are worthy of more caution, I don’t know. But said horses may bounce back. Any running for other trainers may be worth keeping an eye on, as they could show improvement. Dennis may have had illness issues, although maybe he just wasn’t that good, rarely breaking above 8% win sr, and/or never got decent horses in the yard.

Anyway, use that how you please!

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • No joy with the dutching on Tuesday and i have decided to pull the plug on it and revert to the previous methodology that had been successful.

    Two for Wetherby on Wednesday:

    4.10, Almazhar Garde – an improving five year old, trainer in OK form, has won in this class and at this distance.
    4.45, Teescomponentslad – has had a seasonal pipe opener, trainer in form, has won in this class and at the course.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 13/10/20 8:53 PM Reply


  • Buzzing for the new jumps season, off to a good start
    lot of making up to do tho after a horrific time on the flat
    is it a totally new site Josh??

    RYAN MERCER 13/10/20 10:11 PM Reply


    • That’s the enthusiasm we’re here for Ryan!

      Yep it is, been redesigned from scratch really without losing the ‘feel’ – delivery will still be the same with the daily posts etc. Just smartened up a bit but we shall see what people think. Should be ready in next 7-10 days and will switch it over.

      Josh

      Josh 14/10/20 8:43 AM Reply


  • Well, that was a nice surprise late on at Newcastle Kilconquhar 25/1. I don’t mind when they win.
    Let’s find some more today.

    Demi Sang………14/1
    16:10Wetherby
    Movie Legend….8/1
    17:15Wetherby
    Rydan…………..16/1
    15:55Bath
    Oriental Splendour..33/1
    16:50Nottingham

    Mike

    Michael Dennis 13/10/20 11:02 PM Reply


  • todays c3+ and c4+ aw video replay list
    NOTTINGHAM
    14-35 vulcan / badenscoth / furzig
    15-45 dakota gold / aljady / tis marvelouse
    16-20 case key / equitation / shepherds way
    BATH
    15-20 traisha / vivionn / utile
    KEMPTON
    18-00 full authority / moment of silence / tinto
    18-30 king tiger / escobedo / miami joy
    19-00 shamaroon / tintoretto / almufti

    kempton 7f trainer angle 62bets/20wins/32place +141.79
    19-30 sonnet rose 18/1

    e/w punt 13-00 nottingham mesopotamia 33/1

    as always good luck 🙂

    Warren Bottomley 13/10/20 11:44 PM Reply


  • Hi, thought I`d venture out as there are some class 3 Hcp chases today at Wetherby with a few tasty one`s in them..
    4:10 Wetherby
    TINTERN THEATRE 1pt win 8/1
    I think NTD is a month behind where he was last year, bit like V Williams a couple of years back, when she did bad in the month she had always done well in, but, the month after was firing them in, TT has been off the track for a while now and did get pulled out of a race the other day, because conditions weren`t just right, they are today and don`t be put off with freshness, he sent out GUY yesterday to win a race after a 300 day plus lay off, who when you look at the race won like a horse hitting peak form.
    ECU DE LA NOVIERE 1pt win 12/1 gen
    Loves this course and should go well again, yes it`s over 3f further, but, don`t think that will matter as the horse gives the fences enough air and will be up there from the off, may be better than the rest of these and the weight is probably the only anchor, built into the price and in my eyes, value.

    Did have two for the 5:15, but, one has been pulled, so, will leave alone now..

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today.

    Stewart 14/10/20 8:28 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    4.25 Kempton Winnetka
    classic Tony Carroll runner running again after 2 days and is being backed, so a bold show expected

    Colin

    cleafe 14/10/20 10:22 AM Reply


    • GL as always Colin…

      Yes, that does seem to be a successful trick of his…

      Tony’s runners returning 1 or 2 days since their last start… 7/1 or shorter he’s 8/13, 10p, +9 SP since start of 2018, in all race types. Since start of 2008, 14/43, 29p, +12 SP. Those sent off bigger than 7/1 SP, currently 0/16,5p.

      When sent off 5/2 or shorter since start of 2018… 7/8, 8p.

      GL, Josh

      Josh 14/10/20 11:06 AM Reply


      • Josh if you have time have a look at Tony Carroll upto 7 day runners, for the stats on 1 to 2 days very intresting and thank you for looking
        Todays runner bound to finish last for I have backed it!
        Colin

        cleafe 14/10/20 11:34 AM Reply


        • Yep I did, only flagged what I viewed as worth flagging! 🙂

          Up to 7 gen seem to be over-bet, well, sice 2018- 23/73, 38p, -4 SP. AE is 1.00, so they’re doing what the market expects them to. 9/2< do better, as you may expect, certainly since 2018 22/59, 36p... but 5/22, 10p, -8.4 SP in 2020 to date. AE 1.11. So not much leeway. Not sure much utility 'systematically' but as a 'way in' solid, but the 1-2 days seems like the sweet spot on that quick initial glance.

          Josh 14/10/20 11:48 AM Reply


  • Rare mid-week bet for me but here goes

    3.25 Punchestown Grade 3 Chase 3 miles

    These are my races for the winter game, 3 mile chases of C2 Handicap, and C1 races.

    Long story short, TOUT EST PERMIS nbow 7yo, was sent back hurdling, returns to chasing and has everything in his favour here. Noal meade 38% winners in the last 14 days. Should be a stronger horse this year. G3 will be his grade. This race dominated by 6,7,8 yos over the years and only my bet and a 50/1 rage fall into that age range.

    2.5 units win at 10/3

    Rick 14/10/20 2:12 PM Reply


    • GL Rick, yep can see why interested in him… as you’re prob aware… 2/3 on seasonal return over fences, 3/5 under Sean F. I think he ran in this last year, only so so, but the yard def were not going as well as they are now – given he’s on a tough mark over fences, for handicaps anyway – would make sense he’d be a1 for a race like this. Hopefully they race him up there. A solid 2nd in on HRB ratings also. Gl, josh

      Josh 14/10/20 2:23 PM Reply


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