Members Daily Post: 13/10/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

4.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: to be updated  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

None. 

 

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

(All ‘any odds’) (3/15,7p, +2.8)

12.45 Here – Project Mars 11/4 

2.00 Hunt – Floating Rock 7/2 UP

2.23 Here – Nevilles Cross 6/4 WON 6/4 > Evens 

3.33 Here – Jemima P (11/1< best) 9/2 

 

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

NTD

(1/19, 5p, -13.5)

12.00 Hunt – Monarchofthegrange (20/1<) 10/1 UP

Lavelle

(1/9,5p, -3.5)

3.33 Here – Jemima P (14/1<) 9/2

 

4.Other/Updates

 

A MUST READ: If you missed it, info on my newest signing and his first ‘Notes From The North’ contribution of the season: That’s all HERE>>>

 

Members Club: if you’ve any interest in joining the trial from 1st November, do add your name on this email list HERE>>>>

 

Weekend Review Video

Review video below, touching on various points of interest – including a look at those jockeys who’ve done best in chases in the last 2 years, including handicap chases. And the records of those whose mounts have led/raced prominently. With any luck there’s something to take away…

 

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Additional stats for some of the qualifiers above, to ‘help’ in any puzzle solving endeavours for said horses or others on the card/future…

Project Mars – It feels as though Fergal has been in form since racing returned, and in last 30 days… 13/41, 27p, performing 40% above market expectation. 66% win/place SR isn’t too bad. Last 14 days 6/23, 15p. 

Floating Rock – a LTO winner 34 days ago, Lacey does ok with those… 14/58, 30p last couple of years, although they do perform 12% below market expectations – then again, most LTO winners may well be over bet. He does better with LTO winners than the trainer ranks as a whole. Of more interest, for today and moving forward – those having their 2nd start in a handicap… 5/21, 10p, +9 SP in last 2 years. Solid enough. 

Jemima P – Lavelle, along with Twister, could do with a burst – Emma’s are only going ‘so so’ , 1/18, 7p in last 14 days – the place % are solid, just needs one or two more to get their head in front. Well, for us anyway! Her record with those having first start in a handicap is decent enough… 6/26, 12p last 2 years, +9 SP. 3/10,3p with her hurdlers at Hereford.

Floating Rock – Huntingdon is another track where Lacey does well it seems… or has done… 7/24, 10p, +18 in recent years.

Monarchofthegrange – some signs Twister may have a burst soon – 3/15,8p in the last 14 days with all runners. This is a novice hurdle – but as an aside many of his have looked like they will come on for the run – in last 30 days his handicappers returning 60+ days off are 0/14,4p. This one is owned by Twister and he does like to sell them if he can, to be kept in the yard, so will want this one to show something at some point, if he’s any good of course. He will qualify for a mark after this run, his first in 214 days, and the market may (or may not) guide, we shall see.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

34 Comments

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  • A couple of places Monday so we go again Tuesday.

    Stonegarth………12/1
    17:45Newcastle
    Bravo Faisal…..11/1
    18:45Newcastle
    Kilconquhar…..33/1
    20:15Newcastle
    Keyboard Joan….10/1
    12:30Huntingdon
    Belargus…………14/1
    13:30Huntingdon

    Mike

    Michael Dennis 12/10/20 5:55 PM Reply


    • Thank you Mike! Great pick with K. Your long shots are on fire, sir!

      Doug Ockwell 13/10/20 8:19 PM Reply


    • Wow!! Nice biggie at the end, keep up the great work 🙂

      Nige C 13/10/20 9:39 PM Reply


  • A couple for the Burke/Curtiss 2yo tomorrow

    Stonegarth 5.45 Newcastle 16/1 BV 12-14 generally
    Boogie Time 6.15 5/1 Newcastle 5/1 bet365,BV

    Karl Burke hasn’t really been knocking in winners last few weeks which is a cause for concern,the unraced Stonegarth is the most interesting of the duo,its the right price range for his winners

    gerry flynn 12/10/20 7:18 PM Reply


  • A close shave but no joy with the dutchers on Monday.

    Onto Tuesday:

    1.30 Huntingdon.

    Zoutoise – handicap debut, should be suited by the distance of this race, has won in this class, has won on this going.
    Darsi In The Park – down in class here, second run in handicaps, has won in this class.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 12/10/20 8:39 PM Reply


  • Lucy Wadham has a good hurdle record & is in really decent form right now particularly when either Frost or Tissier are doing the steering. She has two at Huntington today at big prices Connie Wilde @ 100/1 and Somekindofstar @ 20/1. At Huntington she is 4 from 7 in the last 5 years hurdling with either of these two jockeys…… Bit of a poke but I’ve had a small ew go on these.

    Nick 13/10/20 8:53 AM Reply


    • Sound logic Nick, not to be today but do keep an eye on Somekindofstar – he has cruised through that race, but then ran out of puff up the straight – has possibly needed it, and/or doesn’t stay and/or the wind op hasn’t worked! But, moved like a well handicapped one. Would prob get 24f around Fakenham or something, he looks nippy also, maybe a tighter track. Could pop up in next 1-3 starts.
      Josh

      Josh 13/10/20 3:22 PM Reply


    • Nick, she had a 3rd Will Sting in an amateur riders race won at 22/1. Trainer to watch out for.

      I heard on tv that Pam Sly has an outstanding record at the same track, not sure what they are but she had a 10/1 winner today.

      Mike

      Michael Dennis 13/10/20 5:00 PM Reply


  • Josh the link you gave in your email for TTS doesn’t work fully. It takes you to their page but upon entering your email to download the PDF it then fails to redirect. Don’t think it’s just me either.

    Cheers

    Adam 13/10/20 9:47 AM Reply


    • Hi Adam,

      Ah, I’ve let Matt know – it works in sense you do get sent the welcome email, but yes that redirect isn’t to the right page – suspect he’s got a thank you page/check your inbox type message which is should be! Can see why that’s confusing but check your inbox as you should have the welcome email – mine has come through fine. But yea that redirect would lead you to think it hasn’t worked.
      Josh

      Josh 13/10/20 9:55 AM Reply


      • Hi Josh,

        No I’ve not received any emails from it unfortunately!

        Adam 13/10/20 9:59 AM Reply


        • Hmm, that will be an issue with the email then I suspect – i’ve just done it with another account (both gmail mind) and it’s come through fine – Matt uses Getresponse like me I think, and there’s a few emails those systems/providers don’t like – hotmail, BT, Yahoo can be troublesome and others – which is always annoying. If nothing in next few hours let me know and i’ll just email you the direct link.
          Josh

          Josh 13/10/20 10:04 AM Reply


  • Signerd up and eagerly awaiting the post November 1st RTP subscription!!

    Rick 13/10/20 10:14 AM Reply


    • Thanks Rick! In part i’m using that list as a ‘budgie down the mine’ so i’ve got a rough idea on whether i’ll still have a business come Xmas. I think we will be fine, provided I do my job properly. With Adam now on board i’m convinced it should be one of the best winter jumps offerings around, in my head anyway!
      Cheers, Josh

      Josh 13/10/20 10:22 AM Reply


      • You are doing a great job. Getting me to subscribe for a start shows you must be.

        I never sign up for anything!

        But I am to this. I’m sure many others will too

        Rick 13/10/20 10:26 AM Reply


        • Good to hear! Thanks, appreciated. Well, you haven’t seen the fee yet haha – but it is reasonable I think, for what could be argued is two ‘services’ in one. But, people can judge that at the time and there is the trial period etc. The new site is getting there/a big improvement I think. Everything is on track for 1st Nov.

          I will switch some of my stats research attention to C2/G3 chases at some point, given plenty of my own preview focus will be on that. We shall see if anything emerges.

          Josh

          Josh 13/10/20 10:31 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    8.15 Newcastle Carlovian

    Colin

    cleafe 13/10/20 10:39 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    just wanted to check that you haven’t forgotten those of us that were mid subscription when lockdown hit
    cheers
    Sid

    David Snowdon 13/10/20 11:49 AM Reply


    • Hi Sid,

      Nope, I have my spreadsheet, somewhere 🙂 – thanks to Paypal that is going to cause me a headache, inc technically, and I’m still working out how that’s going to work esp as i’m changing approach this winter with a winter season ticket, and i’ve changed membership software – but i’ll find a solution – I think said old subscribers may have to sign up to the trial on my new system, and then i’ll work a way forward in terms of access owed etc but plenty were for 1-3 months, which are going to cut off half way through the season – so some pondering there for me to sort. There were a handful who were longer that it may be case of winter is in effect ‘free’ in sense arguably already paid for. But I’ll be in touch about all those things provided I have correct details. All a bit of a faff but that’s my problem.
      Josh

      Josh 13/10/20 11:56 AM Reply


      • thanks for clearing that up, sort of 🙂
        Sid

        Sid 13/10/20 12:40 PM Reply


  • 1.00 Hunt Captain Woodie

    In the interests of full disclosure I own a small share in him, so what follows is probably through rose tinted spectacles.
    We’ve had all sorts of problems with him, but he is now fit. Think he’s well handicapped because of his last 3 runs, one he wasn’t fit and the other 2 were on unsuitably soft ground. He’s schooled well and has had a wind op (I’m sure Josh has the Hendo wind op stats somewhere). The market seems to be going for the Jonjo horse so anything around 5/1 is fair value IMHO.

    Anonymous 13/10/20 11:49 AM Reply


    • Something to build on there I think. Be interested what Jerry has to say . I though, in general, he jumped fine – looks a unit/chaser from what I could see. Maybe he will come on for it a tad – maybe he’s worth a go over 3m? Not sure if outpaced at times there, esp on turn for home, or it was lack of a run. He did win a bumper didn’t he, related to some stayers. Hopefully can pick up something for you.

      Yep, Hendo 1st wind op is worth keeping an eye on… 19/65, 30p, +35, AE 1.37 before today.

      Josh

      Josh 13/10/20 1:45 PM Reply


  • I think the proverbial bird down the coal mine is a canary, but each to their own. Looking forward to the relaunch 🙂

    Mark Curtis 13/10/20 11:50 AM Reply


    • Ah yes! Canary it is 🙂

      Josh 13/10/20 12:01 PM Reply


      • I guess you mentioned budgie in relation to your swimwear lol.

        Chris Albin 13/10/20 1:22 PM Reply


  • 16.25 Wolvs. Acquisitor e/w 10/1…
    Comes ut best on my figures (got the maths right first time around today!!!) and think is overpriced so will have small e/w on this with Hollie up for the Ali Stronge mount…gd lck if playing

    silver 13/10/20 3:27 PM Reply


    • place money landed so small profit…pleased with the run and as the standard was just ok for thoise that had run not surprised a new comer did the business

      silver 13/10/20 4:34 PM Reply


  • 2 for me at Newcastle tonight.

    Results update 2/7 (4p) +11.6

    6.45 Bravo Faisal 1pt e/w 9/1 – Down in trip, good draw.

    7.15 Zap 1pt win 11/2 – Also down in trip. First run at Newcastle so taking on trust he handles the surface.

    Steven M 13/10/20 3:58 PM Reply


    • Gl as always Steven, this very focussed approach is working wonder so far, head bob away from that being 3 winners from memory last time.

      Josh 13/10/20 4:06 PM Reply


    • Above should read UP in trip for both!

      Steven M 13/10/20 5:34 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh and yes Deolali was a nose away from a 3rd win. I think someone else put up the third place horse who was a nose further behind.

        The fixtures at Newcastle come thick and fast over the next couple of months so approach will be firmly put to the test

        Steven M 13/10/20 5:38 PM Reply


  • I haven`t got a clue about this new sign up malarkey, but, happy to jump on board and subscribe again, just point me in the right direction Josh, when the time comes…

    Stewart 13/10/20 4:53 PM Reply


    • Ha, yea you won’t miss it Stewart! Not to worry – and i’d be rather surprised if I had to shut up shop before all those who want to join the trial etc, do. But said list means I can communicate a few more times to receptive eyes, as well as having some sort of grip on possible take up etc.
      Josh

      Josh 13/10/20 4:58 PM Reply


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