2.Jumps Profiles 20/21
3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)
#1 – Tea Clipper – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) WON 8/1> 7/2 (20p R4 I think, pre 7.30am) 6.4/1
#2 – Sir Psycho – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) UP, -1
that’s going to be all on Saturday from me, as of 17.45 Friday, write upsat bottom of post…
2.Jumps Profiles 20/21
(All ‘any odds’) (2/11,5p, +4.3)
12.25 Hex – The Ferry Master 11/2 2nd, -1
2.12 Chep – Gunnery 8/1
3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)
(1/15, 4p, -9.5)
2.47 Chep – Ballyoptic (8/1<) 7/1 4.32 Chep – Crievehill (8/1<) 18/1 “DNQ’ (on 8am prices)
5.07 Chep – Just No Risk (20/1<) 20/1 UP (ran ok) -1
Velka Pardubice Preview: READ HERE>>>
Chepstow Pointers : READ HERE>>>
Silver Trophy Meeting Quals
From the Chepstow Pointers post above…
1.40 – Hell Red 8/11
2.12 – Friend Or Foe 3/1
5.07 – Knappers Hill 5/2
5.42 – Famoso 7/4
2.47 – Ballyoptic 7/1 4.32 – Crievehill 18/1
5.07 – Just No Risk 20/1
2.47 – Django Django 12/1 3.57 – Lightly Squeezed
15.57 – Silver Trophy
Looking at those who finished top 2 at least once on last three runs, had 0-1 runs at G3 level and ran over hurdles LTO leaves 10/12 (10/106, 34p)… and only helps so much, leaving a ‘longlist’ of 9…
Notre Pari / Beaufort West / Tea Clipper/ Fix Sun/ Sir Psycho / Flinck / Hometown Boy / Mario De Pail / Caswell Bay
Irish Bred a positive, rather than GB or FR being a negative:
Notre Pari / Beaufort West / Tea Clipper/ Sir Psycho / Flinck / Hometown Boy
From that list/those original trends, those that ran over 17f or shorter LTO are 7/23, 11p:
Sir Psycho / Mario De Pail
Last Time Out Winners a positive, ALL LTO winners in the race:
Doubly Clever / Notre Pari / Beaufort West
Trainers (to have won race prev 12 years/with runners)
- Flash The Steel (last year’s winner)
- Caswell Bay
- Cotswold Way
Tips write ups…
Tea Clipper – i’m in no doubt this one is well handicapped over timber. He’s a chaser in the making so of some interest they come here. He was a NR at Uttox in a C3 due to the ground – I assume it went softer than advertised, but that’s a positive, in the sense that he’s running over hurdles to compete – rather than just have a blow out before switching to fences. They know he’s well handicapped and he should have developed even further over the summer. By Johnny’s own admittance he should have won at Hunt but let the winner get away, dictating a steady gallop and building up an easy lead. While he obviously needs more his capping form generally is better than many in here I think. He won on his seasonal return last year, will relish this trip and Lacey does superbly at the track. He will also enjoy this ground, and i’m not sure it will suit many in here. Hopefully he has too much toe for them and is one of the few who puts down fully. He should also track what pace there is in a race that on paper doesn’t have loads of frenetic pace. I expect a big run and thought 8s was more than fair. He is one of those classic ‘whatever he does over hurdles is a bonus’ types and is one to track when chasing. Hopefully he can take this.
Sir Psycho – like Tea Clipper he hits a few of my trends/stats pointers and given the form of the Nicholl’s team, I couldn’t leave him at 9s. He has some of the best hurdling form to date in this with the promise of so much more to come this year. I think he will be ready – the CP are on and Carver, who’s won on him before, could be on to ‘make sure’, ratings wise, or in any case reduce his actual weight. He ran well in the Triumph, outpaced, staying on – but up against good horses there on ratings. Goshen was obviously going to spread eagle them but he still ran with credit. He wasn’t stopping come the line. I think this trip, and further, is what he wants this season, given how he’s shaped. He’s got form on Good – I think he handles it but clearly relishes softer. But, with this move in trip, hopefully it’s fine. He can race handily also and he should be in a ‘no excuses’ position. He has a touch of handicap hurdle class against these, while still not near his ceiling. Nicholl’s hasn’t won the race in the last 12 years but a few have placed, and he’s won it twice in the 10 years before that. It’s about time he won it again.
Of the rest… in order of preference…
Notre Pari – backing a JP horse in a race like this at 7s or so may give me nightmares. I’ve picked Tea Clipper over him and if i’m wrong, so be it – the selection will race more prominently and has won on his seasonal return – that swung it. And his level of form to date is better. But Notre is open to any amount of improvement obviously and could be thrown in. He does need to step up though and his jumping has been scratchy under pressure, and he was going to be beat at Kempton by a 118 horse, who also fell at the last. Still, I won’t fall off my seat if he cruises into it up the straight. I’ll hope he needs the run. He’s also a chaser in the making, according to his trainer.
I wasn’t that close to the rest in truth. Colin Tizzard is 0/14,0p in this race and Beaufort was thumped in this last year. At 7s I could leave, for all that he’s unexposed and seemingly got his act together. He needs more and looked about right.
Flash The Steel should be thereabouts and may take it. He’s 8 and is 8lb above his win in this and so does need more. He benefitted from a furious pace in this last year and in these sorts of races i’d rather go with those who I think should be making their way up the ratings. But he will have been primed for this, so I won’t be putting you off him. I’ve gone for younger hurdling legs.
Saint Sonnet – I ‘think’ this is a prep for a return to fences and Paul says he looks a bit burly but has done as much work as the rest – but he’s lightly raced. The pre season plan was a possible tilt at The Bet Victor which is interesting enough, given his inexperience. Lightly raced, but I preferred Sir P of the pair. I think Harry may be on as they really like this one for the future, and want Bryan’s 5lb off SP on a horse he knows well.
Fix Sun, Flinck and the others need more. That’s not impossible but all those mentioned have achieved a higher level of form over hurdles on my reading of things. The Hobbs horse may want it softer. Pauling’s is fit and in form at least but will need plenty more. Sam Thomas’ horse is interesting but he hasn’t trained a winner off a 60+ day break as yet, although this one went close on return last season. Still, his form is only so so and he may want a bog. Could potentially be one of the better horses he has though. Kalondra will surely need it but he can beat me aged 9, been chasing a while. Dino isn’t for me, nor Evan’s who I thought may also want a bog. Hometown Boy is interesting to a point – form with McFabulous makes him interesting enough – another who looks a chaser in the making and i’ll hope he needs this/isn’t fast enough in conditions. The trainer , and jockey’s record at the track is mediocre. Surely one of the other three isn’t taking this.
We shall see if i’ve picked the right two.
Who do you fancy?
I decided to leave the handicap chases, they looked tricky enough.