Members Daily Post: 10/10/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

4.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: to be updated  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

3.57 Chepstow

#1 – Tea Clipper – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen)  WON 8/1> 7/2 (20p R4 I think, pre 7.30am) 6.4/1 

#2 – Sir Psycho – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) UP, -1 

that’s going to be all on Saturday from me, as of 17.45 Friday, write upsat bottom of post…

 

2.Jumps Profiles 20/21

(All ‘any odds’) (2/11,5p, +4.3)

12.25 Hex – The Ferry Master 11/2  2nd, -1 

2.12 Chep – Gunnery 8/1 

 

3.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)

NTD

(1/15, 4p, -9.5)

2.47 Chep – Ballyoptic (8/1<) 7/1 

4.32 Chep – Crievehill (8/1<) 18/1 “DNQ’ (on 8am prices) 

5.07 Chep – Just No Risk (20/1<) 20/1 UP (ran ok) -1 

 

4.Other/Updates

Velka Pardubice Preview: READ HERE>>> 

Chepstow Pointers : READ HERE>>> 

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Silver Trophy Meeting Quals 

From the Chepstow Pointers post above…

Trainers

P Nicholls 

1.40 – Hell Red 8/11 

2.12 – Friend Or Foe 3/1

5.07 – Knappers Hill 5/2

5.42 – Famoso 7/4

NTD

2.47 – Ballyoptic 7/1 

4.32 – Crievehill 18/1

5.07 – Just No Risk 20/1

Jockeys 

Sean Bowen

2.47 – Django Django 12/1

3.57 – Lightly Squeezed 

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15.57 – Silver Trophy

Stats/trends shortlist

Looking at those who finished top 2 at least once on last three runs, had 0-1 runs at G3 level and ran over hurdles LTO leaves 10/12 (10/106, 34p)… and only helps so much, leaving a ‘longlist’ of 9…

Notre Pari / Beaufort West / Tea Clipper/ Fix Sun/ Sir Psycho / Flinck / Hometown Boy / Mario De Pail / Caswell Bay

Irish Bred a positive, rather than GB or FR being a negative:

Notre Pari / Beaufort West / Tea Clipper/ Sir Psycho / Flinck / Hometown Boy

From that list/those original trends, those that ran over 17f or shorter LTO are 7/23, 11p:

Sir Psycho / Mario De Pail

Last Time Out Winners a positive, ALL LTO winners in the race:

Doubly Clever / Notre Pari / Beaufort West

 

Trainers (to have won race prev 12 years/with runners)

  • Flash The Steel (last year’s winner)
  • Flinck
  • Caswell Bay
  • Cotswold Way

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Tips write ups…

Tea Clipper – i’m in no doubt this one is well handicapped over timber. He’s a chaser in the making so of some interest they come here. He was a NR at Uttox in a C3 due to the ground – I assume it went softer than advertised, but that’s a positive, in the sense that he’s running over hurdles to compete – rather than just have a blow out before switching to fences. They know he’s well handicapped and he should have developed even further over the summer. By Johnny’s own admittance he should have won at Hunt but let the winner get away, dictating a steady gallop and building up an easy lead. While he obviously needs more his capping form generally is better than many in here I think. He won on his seasonal return last year, will relish this trip and Lacey does superbly at the track. He will also enjoy this ground, and i’m not sure it will suit many in here. Hopefully he has too much toe for them and is one of the few who puts down fully. He should also track what pace there is in a race that on paper doesn’t have loads of frenetic pace. I expect a big run and thought 8s was more than fair. He is one of those classic ‘whatever he does over hurdles is a bonus’ types and is one to track when chasing. Hopefully he can take this.

Sir Psycho – like Tea Clipper he hits a few of my trends/stats pointers and given the form of the Nicholl’s team, I couldn’t leave him at 9s. He has some of the best hurdling form to date in this with the promise of so much more to come this year. I think he will be ready – the CP are on and Carver, who’s won on him before, could be on to ‘make sure’, ratings wise, or in any case reduce his actual weight. He ran well in the Triumph, outpaced, staying on – but up against good horses there on ratings. Goshen was obviously going to spread eagle them but he still ran with credit. He wasn’t stopping come the line. I think this trip, and further, is what he wants this season, given how he’s shaped. He’s got form on Good – I think he handles it but clearly relishes softer. But, with this move in trip, hopefully it’s fine. He can race handily also and he should be in a ‘no excuses’ position. He has a touch of handicap hurdle class against these, while still not near his ceiling. Nicholl’s hasn’t won the race in the last 12 years but a few have placed, and he’s won it twice in the 10 years before that. It’s about time he won it again.

Of the rest… in order of preference…

Notre Pari – backing a JP horse in a race like this at 7s or so may give me nightmares. I’ve picked Tea Clipper over him and if i’m wrong, so be it – the selection will race more prominently and has won on his seasonal return – that swung it. And his level of form to date is better. But Notre is open to any amount of improvement obviously and could be thrown in. He does need to step up though and his jumping has been scratchy under pressure, and he was going to be beat at Kempton by a 118 horse, who also fell at the last. Still, I won’t fall off my seat if he cruises into it up the straight. I’ll hope he needs the run. He’s also a chaser in the making, according to his trainer.

I wasn’t that close to the rest in truth. Colin Tizzard is 0/14,0p in this race and Beaufort was thumped in this last year. At 7s I could leave, for all that he’s unexposed and seemingly got his act together. He needs more and looked about right.

Flash The Steel should be thereabouts and may take it. He’s 8 and is 8lb above his win in this and so does need more. He benefitted from a furious pace in this last year and in these sorts of races i’d rather go with those who I think should be making their way up the ratings. But he will have been primed for this, so I won’t be putting you off him. I’ve gone for younger hurdling legs.

Saint Sonnet – I ‘think’ this is a prep for a return to fences and Paul says he looks a bit burly but has done as much work as the rest – but he’s lightly raced. The pre season plan was a possible tilt at The Bet Victor which is interesting enough, given his inexperience. Lightly raced, but I preferred Sir P of the pair. I think Harry may be on as they really like this one for the future, and want Bryan’s 5lb off SP on a horse he knows well.

Fix Sun, Flinck and the others need more. That’s not impossible but all those mentioned have achieved a higher level of form over hurdles on my reading of things. The Hobbs horse may want it softer. Pauling’s is fit and in form at least but will need plenty more. Sam Thomas’ horse is interesting but he hasn’t trained a winner off a 60+ day break as yet, although this one went close on return last season. Still, his form is only so so and he may want a bog. Could potentially be one of the better horses he has though. Kalondra will surely need it but he can beat me aged 9, been chasing a while. Dino isn’t for me, nor Evan’s who I thought may also want a bog. Hometown Boy is interesting to a point – form with McFabulous makes him interesting enough – another who looks a chaser in the making and i’ll hope he needs this/isn’t fast enough in conditions. The trainer , and jockey’s record at the track is mediocre. Surely one of the other three isn’t taking this.

We shall see if i’ve picked the right two.

Who do you fancy?

GL, Josh

I decided to leave the handicap chases, they looked tricky enough.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

36 Comments

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  • Tough old Saturday

    Got 3 or 4 under consideration, will post in the morning

    Have a good evening, waiting for Silver Hurdle tips

    Rick 09/10/20 4:43 PM Reply


  • R Becket stable are on fire at the moment. The last thirty days 31 wins from 90 .. 23%
    His handicappers are 12 from 46 .. 26%
    Stick Rob Hornby on top and it’s 5 from 13 .. 38%
    Two to think about.
    1:10N ZOFFARELLI
    3:35N ROCK EAGLE
    Even if today is not the day. These two combined the last two years, keeping under 20/1 is 24 from 72 .. 33%.
    decent profits too.

    compound dave 09/10/20 8:31 PM Reply


  • No joy on Friday, 2 points lost.

    On Saturday:

    2.47 Chepstow, Secret Investor – goes on the ground, course winner, won at the distance, trainer in form. And Potterman – good winner last time out, improving, won on the ground.

    Two for the Cesarewich – Vis A Vis and Mr Chua.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 09/10/20 9:30 PM Reply


  • I decent day yesterday, 40/1 sp, and 16/1 bog 12/1 sp so well in pocket over the past 2 days. All downhill from here.

    3.35 N Lynwood Gold/Coeur de Lion/Future Investment/ Great White Shark

    Buddha Scheme 9/1
    13:25Hexham
    Lough Derg Jewel 11/1 ew
    13:55Hexham
    Gulliver 16/1 ew
    15:10York
    Staxton 16/1 ew
    15:10York
    Wise Counsel 22/1 ew
    15:10York
    Fishable 14/1
    16:55York
    Poet’s Dawn 16/1 ew
    16:55York
    War Defender 16/1
    16:55York

    Mike

    Michael Dennis 09/10/20 10:52 PM Reply


    • Missed one or two at Chepstow/Chel

      4.32 Punches Cross 16/1 ew

      8.00 Chel Secret Art 25/1 ew
      8.30 Chel Fortune Finder 9/1

      Mike

      Michael Dennis 10/10/20 8:34 AM Reply


      • Is there a way you can refine your methodology as your bankroll will need to be large to keep covering this volume of selections?
        If you have a losing run the drawdown would be significant as things currently stands.

        Martin Colwell 10/10/20 9:12 AM Reply


        • I doesn’t makes any difference whether you have 2 bets a day or 10 bets a day. Losing runs are the same either way only the time scales differ, this applies to bankroll size too as long as you’re staking the correct amount.

          Chris Albin 10/10/20 9:43 AM Reply


          • Hmm, that could be re-worded Martin so it’s more inquisitive! Rather than in a tone of ‘you’re doing it all wrong’ – i’d have been tempted to politely tell you to sod off! With a smile of course 🙂

            I was going to say a similar thing to Chris, who’s from the high volume school and I dare say knows more about such an approach than either of us – doesn’t the draw down just happen in a shorter space of time? Unlike with me where it can drag a while! I’m sure he’s happy with a large bankroll/can cope with the draw downs.

            No right or wrong, if that’s how Michael likes to approach the game/gets enjoyment/profit long term. And he hasn’t been doing too badly with his postings. And i’m sure many a pro would argue there’s a case to be made for high volume anyway.

            Josh

            Josh 10/10/20 9:54 AM Reply


            • Just want to add that no matter what approach you take in finding your selections the stake is infinitely more important than the selection. Anyone can try and pick a winner but staking the right amount in relation to a few factors is much more important, I don’t mean Kelly and all that madness!!
              I’m not a fan of the % of bank approach myself, if you’ve hit a long run of losers and your stake has been reduced you lose value with a reduced stake when the winners come round again. It works for some people I guess depending on what they’re betting on.

              Chris Albin 10/10/20 10:08 AM Reply


              • Interesting information Chris…never thought about the time scales approach and agree that staking is important to get right in “relation to the right factors”….just what those factors are is as important as this relates to the assessment process of a selection….I have more on if the speed of a horse has achieved is far better than anything else that the selections competitors has achieved….other factors would include potential of a horse to run faster than my selection…..this is difficult to predict, even based on the calculations I do which relate to factors other than speed……going, pedigree, class, trainer, jockey, pace, draw, form of horse and of trainer etc are all in the mix…..have yet to develop a ratings system for such “factors” and quantify the deciding piece of information that would qualify a horse as a selection as it is a combination of those factors I have mentioned…..but if push came to shove would say speed is the bench mark that ultimately decides my choice, whether this is actual speed achieved or what I calculate the potential of a horse that will out speed anything that has run thus far, in relation to going conditions.

                Two criteria, speed and going are probably the best two bench mark I use, together with trainer performance and jockey as other important criteria…..the draw in flat racing at certain tracks can also figure highly especially at certain tracks over certain distances, Chester, for example . Not sure if this is relevant to the jumps as the ability to jump soundly is more important than speed, if you can jump soundly and at a good speed on the going then you have a better chance of winning than your competitors…..but trying to assess if a horse can jump consistently has never been my strong point , so will stick to the flat and all weather….thanks for the post, makes you re-assess your own criteria which is always a good thing…..all the best

                silver 10/10/20 10:57 AM Reply


                • Hi Silver, or should I say Hi Ho…never mind….
                  By factors I mean the stats of your betting such as bank size, S/R, ELS (expected losing streak), A/E, price ranges etc. There are a few others to use too but I think it’s worth playing around with a of a few of them to see what works best with your style and I guess to some extent your frequency. I find ELS important as I like to consider how much of my bank I’m comfortable with losing if it were to strike multiple times. A few standard deviations here and there can help if your price ranges are pretty wild too.
                  Anyway without droning on too much I still think staking is far more important than how you arrive at selections, as at some point you will get a winner and having the right staking plan in place will clearly significantly reduce the chance of going broke and maximise your profit. That said level stakes is also good and increasing stakes at certain milestones.
                  Arriving at selections through examining individual races that require subjective judgement is occasionally clouded by outside influences called life which I’m sure Josh will testify to, so I guess a different approach to staking is required there.
                  I think it’s fantastic that we have such a varied approach to finding selections and to some extent staking on here with mine probably being the dullest and least informative of the lot but hey I love the ability to mess around with systems/angles without any deadlines to the next days racing.
                  Trying to get my head round power query at the moment to overhaul my bulging spreadsheets, I guess you use excel or something similar to calculate all those speed figures?
                  Good Luck.

                  Chris Albin 10/10/20 11:42 AM Reply


                  • Hi Chris….HI HO….perfectly ok..no problem…Afraid I am a pen and paper dinosaur… work out figures on paper as not computer literate though would like to be able to do this via a computer programme but lack the necessary skills and intelligence!!! to do this…..agree about the subjectivity that is why I try and objectively use the figures but even then the assumptions behind the calculations are inevitable, especially the going conditions, having to put a numerical value on good, soft, etc was a problem and “yielding”, heavy a bit of a nightmare to assess numerically…..calculating lengths a horse is beaten was also problematical…got it down to .167 secs per furlong instead of .20 seconds per furlong which I find more accurate but using 6ths instead of 5ths is less convenient but find I have an edge over the way standard times are assessed….How do you estimate what your likely losing run is likely to be? Great info in your post and great to see things from a very different perspective….refreshing stuff….

                    silver 10/10/20 12:28 PM Reply


                    • Regarding ELS it requires logarithmic tables if you don’t use excel or a calculator.
                      I have to date 1790 bets with a 16% s/r (round your strike rate up or down), these are the only numbers you need.
                      The formula you need is : log(1790)/-log(0.16). Now some use log10 but there really is no difference also note the minus symbol before the second log. You can get rid of this when using a calculator and I guess on paper too if you remove the minus symbol on the second log result. Failing that you can just remove the minus from your end result. Leave the minus’s in if you use excel.
                      Punch in 1790 and press log you’ll get the number 3.2528503
                      Punch in 1- 0.16 you’ll get the number 0.84, press log and you’ll get -0.07572
                      Now divide 3.2528503 by 0.07572 and you get 42.95893159006867
                      Round this up to 43 and there you have your maximum expected losing streak. So if you come up with the same then you’ll easily be able to calculate you’re own. The more bets you have the higher the number will get. There are reference tables out there on the interwebs you can use instead but you did ask!!
                      Bear in mind it’s also possible I could get 43 losers in a row then 1 win then 43 losers again!
                      I think I have a sheet tucked away that gives me the chance of every losing streak but it’s a few years since I dug that one out. My actual top losing streaks all with one score each is 21, 23, 25 & 35. Plenty in the teens and a lot more in singe figures obviously.
                      At the end of the day it’s a mathematical guide but useful I think, hope it helps you and anyone else.

                      Chris Albin 10/10/20 1:52 PM


                    • Hi Chris No reply button on your latest post for some reason….all I can say is WOW!!! yep I did ask but great you took the time to send such a detailed reply…will print this and spend the next few days trying to understand and implement what you say….near bottom of the class for maths I am afraid but fantastic detail…many many thanks!!!

                      silver 10/10/20 2:12 PM


  • after yesterdays disaster of doing 2 complete video replay lists then not posting them i just have the one today at newmarket due to time constraints.
    ill put my favoured horse in each race in capitals as ive done the last few saturdays for fun so we can all have a chuckle at just how wrong i get it. lol
    NEWMARKET
    13-10 zoffarelli / series of dreams / BELLA NOTTE
    13-45 KYPRIOS / mystery angel / recovery run
    14-20 maximal / MEGALLAN / akmaam
    14-55 CADILLAC / wembley / etonian
    15-35 DALTON HIGHWAY / great white shark / mr chua / lynwood gold
    16-15 breathtaking look / MAID IN INDIA / magical journey
    16-50 posted / darain / LITIGATOR
    my picks
    CADILLAC 15/2 irish raider and impressive winner last time out. has run well on the soft. trip on paper looks a little short but im pretty sure connections who hold this horse in high regard know what they are doing. he’s not here to make the numbers up today and you have to respect anything this trainer sends over here in group company.

    as always good luck today 🙂

    warren bottomley 10/10/20 9:15 AM Reply


  • Wise Counsel 15.10 York 18/1 365 – was fancied for Ayr GC, no clear run, will win one of these, hopefully today
    Great White Shark 15.35 15/2 365 (on at 16/1 ap) – got loose before the race last year, Mullins only runner from several entered, stable in great form, take the hint

    James Barker 10/10/20 9:17 AM Reply


    • Thanks Josh for the excellent Silver Trophy preview, this is great content for the site, fascinating to see how you think and use HRB etc. I’m with Tea Clipper, followed last year and everything in favour today if good enough – the Lacey stat at Chepstow adds to the case.

      James Barker 10/10/20 10:34 AM Reply


      • Thanks James, glad you enjoyed it – i’ll hopefully keep improving in time in terms of what I cover and how – i want them to be useful for viewers/make you ponder etc that’s the main aim. They seem to be popular enough anyway. I’ll try and do the odd 5-10 minute snapshot, but I find those hard! I could just focus on my shortlists every now and then I suppose.
        I’ll try and do some review videos the following Mon/Tues with some thoughts on what’s been and gone over the weekend.

        Tea Clipper – yep, i’d like to think he will be fit enough given last season etc. But these horses will always come on a bit. I’m sure he’s one of not very many in that who will actually enjoy the ground, whereas most others will be hoping to get away with it – that could be case for Sir P but he ran well on good on the flat early in career, and other bits and pieces. Paul must think it’s safe otherwise he’d pull him out. If there’s a 150+ hurdler in that race today, I think it’s him.

        Josh

        Josh 10/10/20 10:50 AM Reply


        • Thanks again Josh, tea clipper found more and won well, your analysis was perfect, turned into a cracking day with the shark romping home too

          James Barker 10/10/20 4:08 PM Reply


          • Didn’t it just, a great day all round – winners, and at good prices (and some big placed horses) dotted all over the comments today. I may have to upgrade dinner plans and treat myself to some Fish N Chips!

            Josh 10/10/20 5:16 PM Reply


  • I enjoyed The Silver Trophy video Josh. The right length of time.

    A few things crossed my mind as discussion points:

    Is it not to leave these competitive handicaps alone and they are too much of a puzzle? I guess you can argue that, as you do with golf betting, that there are lots of big prices about for semi decent horses.

    Are we looking for the horse that is too good for handicaps and will progress to the class races at Chetenham? Notre Pari as a potential example?

    What about Lightly Squeeze? He supposedly was a good thing for The Cesarewich but did not get in (I am not totally up to date whether he did get in). So do you back him here, but why would you as this is a completely different race?

    Anyway, just things that crossed my mind watching the video.

    Cheers Martin

    Martin Colwell 10/10/20 9:20 AM Reply


    • Thanks Martin, yep I think 20 is about right, tops – it’s hard to fit enough in that’s useful/engaging etc. I’m not a fan of really short ones as hard to say very much at all that isn’t obvious.

      Ha – i’ve said before, that’s the reason I like attacking them!! For my sins that’s where I get my buzz from, those puzzles. I suppose a case can be made that such an obsession should be reserved for the ‘hobby fund’ / ‘lets have some fun on a Saturday’ etc rather than serious profit making endeavour – of course that’s the aim long term but those races are tough. But many like engaging with them, even for interest/entertainment. Well I do, and with any luck the process/approach is at least useful/informative, even if not for the race in question/thinking ahead. And in reality since the blog started most of the jumps profit has been in big races, and maybe when with a fresher mind. We shall see what the season holds but those races but you can’t cut corners with them.

      Yep, with these ones, esp the handicap hurdles, you are looking for something chucked in – a bit different very early season maybe, where fitness can count for plenty. You need that mix of unexposed but also with enough experience/mentally mature, where they can handle the hurly burly/pace/etc

      Those two are now non runners from this but they are unexposed in handicap hurdles and in theory more to come. Olly’s could develop into something decent this season maybe. His quote for the race suggested he’d def come on for the run, and I wonder if they may just go novice chasing now.

      We shall see, nothing at big big prices lured me in and we shall see if i’ve got that right or not.

      GL Josh

      Josh 10/10/20 10:13 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    8.00 Chelmsford Sandy Steve
    two losers yesterday and the Gary Moore horse backed from 15/8 to 5/4 and finished plum last, this is a trainer I find rather hard to figure out, for they appear to enjoy the larger price winners rather than the shorties, no doubt yesterdays money was not the stables, must get it in my brain not to back Gary Moore’s runners!
    Colin

    cleafe 10/10/20 10:34 AM Reply


  • Newmarket 15:35 – Alright Sunshine, Future Investment, Just Hubert, (maybe Mondain & Reshoun too)
    Cobbled together from HRB trends from 2 slightly different approaches.
    Chepstow 15:57 – Copied Josh considering his excellent write up and preview.
    Josh’s picks with Future Investment & Reshoun for e/w doubles (5&8 places)
    Future Investment & Reshoun e/w (8 places), singles on the rest.
    I’ve got to stop straying into these random bets at some point!
    I’ll file them under fun, bad fun and financial ruin fun!
    Coeur de Lion keeps on jumping out at me now as well … aaaargh 🙂

    Chris Albin 10/10/20 11:05 AM Reply


  • Top quality racing at Chepstow but mostly for viewing right now.Some bread and butter racing at Hexham seems more approachable from a betting point.

    1.55 Hexham Henrietta Bell 14/1 Bet365 12/1 gen
    This one is of a similar profile as Sirobbie that won for Whittington on sun,coming back to hurdles after not quite replicating hurdle form over the larger obstacles.This one hasn’t the 4 course wins to back it up though.
    Trainer only had 3 runners at hexham and 2 won,too small a sample to draw any conclusions
    Page Fuller 2/3 also.
    Could run a decent race

    gerry flynn 10/10/20 11:19 AM Reply


  • I got all the good prices on these , one or two been punted

    3.10 York RECON MISSION 6 places ew (got 25) & BIELSA One low draw, one high draw

    3.35 Newm GREAT WHITE SHARK had a 2 unit win ante post 16/1, INDIANAPOLIS 3 unit ew 8 places 33/1
    TAKERENGO 1 unit ew 66/1 8 places

    2.47 Chep SEDDON ew

    Plenty of interesting racing but super difficult betting wise.

    GL all with your bets

    Rick 10/10/20 11:21 AM Reply


    • A most satisfactory weekend with Ouzo yesterday, Great White Shark winning and Takarengo a good third at 66/1 in the Ces today.

      Makes up for the garbage I’ve been doinbg since mid-August

      Rick 10/10/20 5:10 PM Reply


      • Ah, class is permanent Rick! The trudges make you enjoy the good days more, and that’s quite a good day! Well done, top shooting, and some superb placed profits also. Nice work

        Josh 10/10/20 5:18 PM Reply


  • After breaking the losing run, I’m optimistic again:
    1225 Western Aussie
    100 Kurious
    125 Absolutely Dylan
    212 Didtheyleaveuoutto
    228 Devour
    303 Event of Sivola
    310 Recon Mission
    335 Lynwood Gold
    357 Khage
    408 Junvieve
    411 Lelantos
    432 Azzuri
    700 Clareyblue
    730 Trepidation
    830 Our Shakila

    Chris 10/10/20 11:47 AM Reply


  • Time is against me again today, will try and do write ups, although I have already done one…haha.
    Just an aside in relevance to the amount of selections you have and staking, it took me ages to work out how to get my staking right and I do believe that, alongside the amount of selections you have is a personal choice, as they say, one man`s junk is another`s gold…
    Onto today
    15:35 Newamrket
    GREAT WHITE SHARK 1pt win 5/1 gen
    Well, have had a little bit more on today, but, the price has crumpled again from a morning 7/1, the write up I did the other day if anyone missed it, to summarise, said she was the Mullins “one” and it looks as though she is backed not to be beat, now, we all know how that goes. I have also had a double with his Irish contingent tomorrow in the Irish equivalent, in the form of last years winner Royal Illusion.
    LYNWOOD GOLD 1pt win 12/1 gen
    Another of the Irish contingent, picked this one as a possible against GWS, trip, ground, jockey and form of trainer good, double figure odds for a horse that also ran Princess Zoe close is daft, but, such is the money for GWS….
    MR CHUA 0.5pts each way 50/1 gen
    I don`t normally do each way, so, with my first venture at that for a while thought i would pick one on that score here, Mr Scudamore does love a good staying race, either on flat, or, over jumps and i think this horse is too over priced for me.

    15:57 Chepstow
    FLASH THE STEEL 1pt win 7/1
    Hmmm, well, maybe what Josh says is correct and to a certain point i agree, maybe the horse is too old, 8lbs higher etc. The only thing is something niggles at you every now and then and you think actually, no, I`m right…As we all say all the time, this game is all about opinions and we will never get it right all the time, otherwise, me and Josh would be sipping sangria on a Yacht somewhere with 50 million in the bank, but, we aren`t, so, here is my opinion, the pace will be furious, FTS, loves that, going, track and distance he also loves, think this renewal doesn`t look as strong as last year and at the price I`m wading in, may be cap in hand afterwards though and possibly the closest I`ll get to owning a boat is the rowing boats you can hire at the local fishing lake…although if a Great White Shark bites..
    HOMETOWN BOY 1pt win 12/1 gen
    I think, as Josh says, the form line from McFabulous looks good, the trainer and jockey like he says is mediocre, but, as with everything it`s the price of this one that has really perked my interest, the double figures i feel is too big and that alone has perked my interest and got me playing on him.

    As always, hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today!

    Stewart 10/10/20 11:55 AM Reply


    • Ah, never in much doubt was it? Once the stamina kicked in. Great shout on a Mullins horse, AGAIN! . Superb. A very enjoyable final furlong.

      Josh 10/10/20 3:46 PM Reply


      • Right back at ya Josh, had the forecast with mine, just, what a day!!! Dare i say today was a good day!!? She owes me nothing GWS i backed her at Galway and forgot to put her up on here, so, that puts that right, don`t know if she really likes the winter soft ground, but, may be put away for Cheltenham now….

        Stewart 10/10/20 4:05 PM Reply


      • I mean in respect of Tea Clipper, better day all round!!

        Stewart 10/10/20 4:06 PM Reply


        • Ha, cheers, well done. Ah nice punting
          I think before the day started if I offered you The Shark, with me taking The Silver Trophy, we’d have both shaken hands on the deal! Onwards.

          Josh 10/10/20 4:21 PM Reply


  • Yes many thanks for your analysis Stewart, took your ante post advice, top notch mate 🙂

    Mark Curtis 10/10/20 3:55 PM Reply


    • Thanks fella, managed 20`s, 16`s, then the price collapsed on Monday, just got 15/2 this morning before every man and his dog got on!!

      Stewart 10/10/20 4:08 PM Reply


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