2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
3.Other Micro Angles
4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)
5. Horses to Follow
The Flat 2020
(164 tips/19 wins/56 places (inc wins) /+29.1 points, advised/ +24.4 Betfair SP)
# 1 – Lucander – 1 point win – Betfair Starting Price (BFSP)
#2 – Anythingtoday – 1 point win – BFSP
#3 – Balgair – 1 point win – BFSP
that will be all for tips on Saturday. Notes below, there’s also some notes on every runner in the Cambridgeshire post… an ‘ITV ‘through the card’ is also below, for interest…
2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
2.05 Hayd – Key Victory (7/1< guide) 13/2
2.05 Hayd – Danyah (any, 9/2< best) H2 5/2
3.35 Newm – Montatham (13/2<) H2 18/1 ‘DNQ’
3.35 Newm – Lucander (16/1<) 20/1 ‘DNQ’
5.40 Ripon – Music Therapist (8/1<) 16/1 ‘DNQ’
3.Other Micro Angles
3.35 Newm – Montatham H2 18/1
Jack Mitchell (10/1< best)
5.15 Chelm – Stevie Mckeane 9/1
5.45 Chelm – Mdina 12/1
4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)
1.35 MR – Waitonit (10/1< best) 2/1 UP
2.10 MR – Luckofthedraw (8/1<) 4/1 UP
2.45 MR – Earlofthecotswolds 7/1 UP/ Zambella (8/1<) 16/1 ‘DNQ’
5. Horses to Follow
3.35 Newm – Afaak (1st run) 50/1
4.40 Newm – Arigato (3rd run) 9/1
5.40 Rip – Music Therapist (3rd run) 16/1
The Cambridgeshire... a video preview, horse by horse musings, stats/trends etc, ALL HERE>>>
‘ITV Through The Card’
this is a bit of fun but i’ve done ok with this sort of approach before – very much ‘think less/instinct’ while using whatever rattles around in my racing brain – I also don’t agonise too much over ‘value’, very much ‘winners eyes’ in the main… but, there’s the free ITV 7 game (i’d like a % if you use any of the below to win it! 🙂 ), placepots etc etc… anyway, hopefully the notes are enjoyable enough…
1.50 Newm – COBH – 5/2
I thought he has the best form here and is a deserving fav. Trainer/jockey were in form here on Friday. This one’s races are working out very well, ‘hot form’ galore. I think his form to date is the best on show but of course it’s the first of a few 2YO races today, and they can take big steps forward etc. Still, he’ll do. For interest… Mark Johnston is 2/12,3p in the race, and AOB 7/31, 17p… maybe I should have stuck with one of those two, but I couldn’t ignore this ones form.
2.05 Hayd – HAYADH – 8/1 / MILLTOWN STAR 10/1
Maybe one for EW players…
I’m not sure Hayadh wants any more rain (none forecast as far as I can see) but he bolted up like a fresh horse LTO and can mix it at this level. I also thought he’d race prominently and could well try to make all. In any case he should be in the right spot and while this mark looks tough it wouldn’t have stopped him LTO and it could be a case of a fit, in form horse who’ll keep going. He is exposed and open to attack from something more progressive…
Milltown Star – he’s possibly running into form after some time off and is in the ‘could be anything’ category while looking on a tough mark, but he’s lightly raced. He’s also shaping as if he needs this 8f and he could outrun his odds. Interesting – I suppose given how lightly raced he is, you’d pick him over the two ‘biggies’ highlighted… maybe… Channon does well here.
Danyah is the most likely winner but 11/4 looked skinny given he can sweat up and pull a bit, and he’s drawn wide here – given how fresh he can be it would be a surprise if his ears were scrubbed off to get a prominent position as that may blow a gasket, so he could be dropped in out the back, but11/4 hold up horses are not great investments imo. Still, he’s potentially the best handicapped in the race and I can see why he’s fav. Maybe it’s that simple but those two looked a shade overpriced, with my ‘value’ eyes back in. (Cobh could make 5/2 look decent though)
2.25 Newm – MISS AMULET – 3/1
She looks a worthy fav to me and is the one to beat given her rating and the overall profile of her form. Solid, and getting better. It is another 2YO race though and you’re braver than I if wading in with big money! She will keep battling and is the one they all have to beat. I’ll trust in Ryan, which I appear to be happy to do Moore than most. (i’ll get my coat)
I didn’t like the break for Dandella and the trainer form is so so. If Happy Romance wins this then fair play – she’s been to the well plenty. The first horse this owner has had, the lucky sod. Look at how much she’s won! That would probably be 10 million+ in France! 🙂 🙂 Some training given the races she’s won/pots. She keeps running well though and is a winning machine. Maybe 5s is a tad insulting but she does need more now, and her form only has a so so look, but she can’t do any more than she has been. These big efforts will catch up at some point though. I suppose if you think she’ll run well then Alchohol Free should be close, and I forget when I had such temperance. Maybe she’s worth a nibble for the 1000G before this race.
2.40 Hayd – DARK SHOT – 7s or so
Hmm, well, when I tipped the bugger at Goodwood there was some method to my madness at least. He’s won two of his next three, at 9s and 11s SP ( I don’t want to know his morning odds) – have I been on either time? have I heck. Urgh. Where’s the wine… look it’s 5.30 pm on a Friday as I type, stop tutting at the back. (it’s a white, French, a ‘naked wines’ wine, dry, crisp, tasty, for those interested)
Anyway, obviously he’ll tail off now but when he hits form he can tend to hold it for a time and bolted up 5 days back. Ground doesn’t seem to matter to him and he should race prominently. I thought he looked a shade overpriced. And he’s still well handicapped on old form and the two above him couldn’t do what he’s done in the past in better races than this.
My instinct was to go for Count D’Orsay – the 1st and 2nd over CD from LTO lead the charge in this and that effort is working out well- The Portland 2nd and the Silver Cup winner in behind them both that day. So, maybe it’s between those two and I won’t put you off him. Dark Shot and The Count ran against each other at Catterick once, DS receiving 7lb that day, for a 4l beating or so. He receives 16lb here. Maybe that swung it form me at the prices.
3.00 Newm – LUCKY VEGA – 3s or so
He was 7/2 gen when I started looking and is being backed in, which is no shock. Jessie will have spent some time picking a target and it’s significant Shane Foley comes over. I met him in a Vegas bar in Nov 18, along with Colin Keane. I think it was Shane’s Stag Do. Good ‘craic’ as they say over the water, nice fellas. And no I didn’t get an autograph or a selfie, that isn’t me. Just a brief chat about horses. I digress… this one has the best form by some way but of course the others are open to potential. That Phoenix win two starts back may well be the best 2YO race run this season given who rocked up and what they’d done before. He was dressed up with nowhere to go LTO, buffeted about, no luck, looked after. If he runs his race and something finishes ahead of him, they win.
Of course, Method may – I don’t like the break and so may Minzaal – but they both need to step forward to match the selections form to date, and of course he’s still open to stacks of improvement. I wouldn’t begrudge Owen Burrows a Group 1 winner.
3.15 Curragh – WUQOOD – 6/1
My fav race of the day.. I jest, but it could tell us something for next year’s classics, maybe. Maybe not. Maybe I’m being sentimental given poor Pat Smullen but it would be pleasing for his old boss to have another good’un on his hands and something to look forward to next year. This superbly bred son of Dubawi may well be it – he did everything wrong LTO, fresh enough and wide the whole way, pushed out hands and heels. Pleasing attitude though. I’m sure Mr Weld would be a slowly slowly trainer with a 2YOs so significant he won and I suspect he’s come on bundles. I hope he runs a cracker and looks overpriced, and based on LTO he’ll have track position on the fav.
AOBs cut through them like butter, last to first, on his debut, the penny eventually dropping (i do watch the last run back, I’m not just sticking pins in, even if it is a bit of fun) 7/4 wouldn’t look overpriced for me but I can see why he’s fav, and obviously he’s well bred- aren’t they all. I’ll take him on.
Jessie has one in here, the jockey’s course stats are questionable although he probably doesn’t get on many good ones. And well, she can train. Maybe taking on the fav with them both for change is the way forward. Who knows.
3.35 Newm –
As above with official ‘tips’, notes below. Oh, you want me to pick just one… hmm… Lucanda.
Good lord, these handicaps don’t get any easier do they, but I really can’t help myself. As per the Cambridgeshire post there’s plenty to get stuck into and don’t be put off by anything i’ve said. Hopefully that helps your own winner finding, which is the aim.
Maybe I should start with my eventual big priced ‘shortlist’
Lucanda / Anythingtoday/ Bulgair / Dubai Mirrage / Al Rufaa/ King Carney
Clearly when one of the latter three bolts up you’ll hear my muffled screams through my mask but my pins have landed on the first three, despite at different times having been close to tipping them all.
Lucanda – I decided he’d be the most painful winner left off that list above. He ticks a lot of boxes inc some of my trends pointers for this. The ground will be find – i’m assuming it will be ‘good’ – Friday’s times were close to standard and I think only ‘showers’ due now. But he doesn’t care. He’s drawn behind some sustained pace (on paper) , settles, stays, scraps. I think he’s still well handicapped and his form has a very solid look to it, and he’s got a few of these held in this, esp on that York run. I don’t think this rise will stop him. He has more races in him, hopefully this one. The one question is the track – that July course run niggles at me, (withdrawn at Goodwood the run before when refusing to go in the stalls, tipped that day. Ah, the pain) and his form has generally been on flatter tracks. But at 20s or so I won’t lose sleep over that. He’s a trainer profiles horse also. He’ll do.
Anythingtoday – another on the trends shortlist. I was a bit dismissive originally but then I did my ‘reverse’ process, writing out my thoughts for each horse, making a case for, against, fence sitting, pros, cons etc. He’s one of not very many who are below their last winning mark in this – and i’m not sold that some of those with a more ‘sexy’ profile still have masses in hand, in these conditions/given questions. He’s run so well the last twice, and a few runs this season. His form ties in with Lucanda’s and others. He’s cruised through the last twice and hit the front in both, and looked like the winner. A combo or ground or trip has then caught him out. This 9f could be ideal and I hope the rain stays away. He will race ‘up there’ from the middle, towed in by the Perrett horses and King Carney hopefully. For what could be 30s+ BFSP, I couldn’t resist. If he hits the front in the dip, we could have some fun. Trainer/jockey have been going great guns in recent days. Both of these two are in the upper 3rd of HRB ratings for this race. I’ve gone BFSP, no doubt he’ll be smashed into 12s or something, Roger paying for a winter holiday.
Balgair – a poke, of course, out the handicap but he was so impressive LTO over this CD in the amateurs Cambridgeshire. His TS figure is a career best and he’s clear top on Geegeez speed figures (Dr Peter May) – they caught the eye. He bolted up there, carrying 11st, his first time over a trip on decent ground. He’s one of these horses who’s transformed when getting a frenetic pace to aim at. Perfect for Jamie Spencer, a shame he can’t do the weight. He got it LTO and he’ll get it again here. Jimmy Quinn is one of the few decent jockeys who can ride 8st. I mean he’s won hard held LTO really, in a time near identical to the 2017 winner of this on what could be similar ground. He’s on the trends shortlist and at what could be a big BFSP I couldn’t resist. If he can settle off this gallop, get some luck, he could cause a shock – and you do get those in this race. Some of his form is solid, inc his Yarmouth return. He can mix it against these. This is all about how hard they go, and how transformative that could be for him. This could be what he’s always wanted and he’s clearly in rude health. I can dream. Oh, he doesn’t want rain – if any ‘soft’ in this, I could be in trouble, but he could be 50s+.
Of the rest…
I talked myself out the other three. Dubai Mirage would hurt like hell, he will get change on the machine. But his form doesn’t look as good as those above and he needs to step forward. He can hang left and his jockey is still learning the ropes – work to do in the finish, visually at least. But what the hell do I know about riding. Saeed is 0/17 in this but did have the 2nd/3rd in 2016. I do think he’s well handicapped still, but for various reasons landed on the above. The market may well guide with him if clipped in.
King Carney hasn’t shown enough for me and needs to step forward again. Maybe he’ll make all and spread eagle them from low under Will Buick. But in the end, he’s got plenty of questions and I don’t know if he’s well handicapped. This is the 2nd run after being gelded, so he could step forward. He is unexposed.
Al Rufaa – i decided he’s too keen, even in a race like this, and that he’s a big stamina question – more an unknown, but in the end not enough there to lure me in, despite connections. I suppose he could be more annoying than Dubai because of that factor. He was whacked after his win two starts back in a ‘meh’ race really. IF he drops his head though, he could run a stormer. That wouldn’t shock me. Ah, more sofa change to dull the pain…
I can live with everything else winning. If I work as hard as I have on this handicap on future Saturday features, i’ll back myself to do just find in the long run. I could go through them all – well, I have, in the link above!
I’m not backing Tempus at 13/2- i’ve talked myself out of 13/2 shots around Pontefract in 10 runner races! He’s the one potential group horse in here but has stamina to prove and may need more rain. This will also be the hardest sustained pace he’s gone. Which he may relish. Still, he hasn’t beaten much as yet in tactical affairs. I’ll pass. I can doff my cap to Mr Charlton if he bolts up. I never get 6s, 13/2 shots right in races such as this.
I don’t like Derevo. He can beat me. He may. I’m not convinced whether he’s been putting it all in this season for all that he was eye-catching LTO, hitting the front too soon maybe, and/or outstayed? But Lucanda’s form ties in with Strait of Hormuz. He may look like the winner at some point.
Who else should I mention…
I don’t like Fifth Position, he’s a monkey and not to be trusted under pressure to my eyes. Good Birthday – 3rd in this last year, so that catches the eye, 8lb lower – he’s not been showing the same form, and SDS has gone to Chelmsford! (check his rides?) This is a 75k pot. BUT he did show some signs LTO and I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran on into a place, but surely he’s not doing better than last year at best. Is he? Oh I hope not. SDS can’t think so, as he can ride the weight for his retained owners. Nah. He can beat me, as I watch through my fingers.
I wasn’t anywhere near the rest in truth and if something unnamed beats me so be it, and I hope someone out there is on! Drinks on you. 🙂
Have a great weekend, I will, whatever the above do. Stay lucky,
p.s , do share your own pokes, or pick apart mine! 🙂 We don’t bite, esp if they fall out the back of the TV, that’s par for the course here 🙂