Members Daily Post: 24/09/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

5. Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(164 tips/19 wins/56 places (inc wins) /+29.1 points, advised/ +24.4 Betfair SP) 

None on Thursday from me. 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

4.10 Newm – Kaloor (16/1<) H3 8/1 UP (2nd)

5.20 Newm – Caen Na Coille (14/1< guide) H3 10/1

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Jim Crowley (any)

3.00 Newm – Qaader H3 13/2 UP

Jack Mitchell

4.25 Kemp – Abwaaq (10/1< best) 33/1 UP

7.30 Kemp – Lethal Talent (any) 20/1

Straight Track Specialists 

2.25 Newm – Flippa The Strippa 15/2 UP

Kevin Stott 

4.20 Ponte – James Watt (16/1<) 6/1 UP

 

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

NTD

(0/9, 3p, -9)

1.10 Perth – Milanstorm (8/1<) 5/2 3rd

2.50 Perth – Poppa Poutine (20/1<) 9/2 3rd

 

5. Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

2.40 Ponte – Dark Jedi (2nd run) H1 11/10 UP

4.10 Newm – Kaloor (3rd run) H3 8/1 UP

4.25 Kemp – Beauty Choice (1st run) 14/1 UP

5.20 Newm – Caen Na Coille (2nd run) H3 10/1

 

6.Other/Updates

Saturday’s Big Handicap Stats/Trends/Pointers

The Cambridgeshire HandicapREAD HERE>>>

(I suspect that will be it for big race trends this weekend) 

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Kerry National – hmm, both of mine were wiped out by the same faller, which was rather unfortunate – race ending carnage for them both, and neither had yet to be asked for an effort – although they were far enough back, maybe not soft enough/out of their comfort zone. I got their race position wrong. But having watched it back they were moving forward and just about to latch onto the back of the group chasing the leader. Their races had yet to be run, but that’s jumps racing, esp if  further back in the field. ‘Never knowing’ is always annoying. Meade’s is a monkey who you wouldn’t want a short price on but I suspect he’ll pop up somewhere when muddy again. He struggled to hold a position at times. Spyglass Hill – maybe he does need a bog although bar one error was travelling fine and RB was just starting to make a move when all but brought down. He will have other days, not that I need any more cliffs to catapult myself off. I was nowhere near the 2nd. Thankfully for Stewart (well done) Cabaret Queen held on – she was high up my list which is better for me than being nowhere near, but I thought she may be open to attack from something with more in hand, and Spyglass got the nod over her on that front. But i’ve got her wrong there – if she’d have jumped straight all the way round that would have been more comfortable. In hindsight that Plate run may have been a prep – it came on the back of her being ill I think – there was certainly something wrong with her at Newbury from memory. But that was decent and it was an unknown as to whether the master, Mr Mullins, had got to the bottom of her. She was running well at Leop when falling and would have been in the money in a race possibly deeper than today, as was the Plate. She was always going to be the most prominently ridden of those on my shortlist. It will be interesting if she can defy her rise. She really did enjoy herself today out in front again. Still, happy enough with that from a process/ analysis / write up point of view, but not as good as our own master of Ireland. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

22 Comments

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  • Hi Josh,
    One stat I cant make head nor tail of in the Cambridgeshire.
    From 1997 to 2010 Irish bred horses were 2 wins from 170 in this race. GB 9 from 215.

    Then from 2011. For some reason, a complete turn around.
    Irish bred 7 from 154 and GB 1 from 101.

    Currently the top six in the market are GB bred.
    Do you think there’s anything in it.
    Or do I have it wrong?

    compound dave 23/09/20 8:09 PM Reply


    • Hi Dave

      (firstly since i’ve changed my back end hosting the comments function etc is playing up – you only need put your name or whatever in the form, before commenting (no need for email add etc) but if you don’t put anything it’s coming up with Anonymous! If you put the same name every time you comment I don’t have to ‘approve’ them back end when you post and any comments will appear straight away. A bit of a faff at moment that i’m trying to fix)

      Anyway… hmm… yep that’s one of those which is hard to fathom – that suffix , GB/ IRE/ FR indicates where the horse is born, rather than ‘bred’ – hence ‘origin’ in HRB I think – but that’s an aside. That flip around would suggest it could just be a change in sire influence or dam sire, who knows – maybe Galileo is having more influence last decade, who knows. The placed numbers are always important with such stats, as may just indicate luck etc if the % are similar, and that there’s nothing in it really. Certainly the race conditions in terms of track/trip/ number of runners can’t have changed – or is it a bigger field in last decade, thus a more sustained gallop and more emphasis on stamina, which may or may not be influencing those born in Ireland, depending on the sires / dams. That’s a complex world – I wouldn’t necessarily use such stats to be put off a horse but there could be something in it – i’m not sure we could ever do better than educated guessing on that one!

      Josh 23/09/20 8:14 PM Reply


      • The sample is still small despite there being a few hundred runners in the sample. Therefore it may be just randomness and regression at play?

        Maybe the better Irish trainers are now targeting the race, whereas before they were not?

        What I would say was that any Irish trainer making the effort to make the journey over in these Coronavirus time is not coming for a change of scenery and will be giving it a good go.

        I would keep it simple and focus on national hunt trainers runners.

        Martin Colwell 24/09/20 9:13 AM Reply


        • Morning Martin…

          Are you getting confused with the Cesarewitch?! No bad thing focusing on jumps trainers in that from memory, but none have won the Cambridgeshire (9f) in the last 12 years, and no Irish trained runners have won it either (all in the notes above).

          Suspect you may be right in terms of randomness but it’s complex on that breeding front, and I doubt something we’d ever get a conclusive answer to.

          Josh

          Josh 24/09/20 9:22 AM Reply


          • Yes, getting confused, both begin with a C !

            Someone was talking to me re The Ces and I had it lodged at the front of my brain.

            Martin Colwell 24/09/20 9:37 AM Reply


  • anyone have a view on the New 1-50 ? 2yo not really my thing and i have a £10 risk free bet due to the B365 ITV 4-1 offer. For some reason i’m not keen on the fav or Olympic Theatre, i’m tempted to go with Lightening Shore who won a C5 over a mile lto but it’s a big jump in class but looks to be going the right way and could very well improve again. Any input appreciated.

    martin whittle 24/09/20 2:54 AM Reply


    • hmm, well with a free bet in a race like that, prob a good idea to take on the top two. I think Lost In Space would be my pick of the shorties , but then he can be keen and now has stamina to prove – it could be the reason for further improvement not that i’d want to wade in at 2s.

      If it were my free bet I think i’d go for Bell’s at 13/2 or so, yet to win but been crying out for a mile and should be well handicapped at some point off 71 based on his efforts to date. Possibly the stoutest bred horse in the race, certainly on dam side. He looks like a grinder and will keep galloping.

      But I don’t want to be talking you out of a 12/1 shot! He’s in the could be anything category now first run on turf, the rest have achieved more to date but it’s a 2YOP nursery, they can take big leaps forward between runs

      GL

      Josh 24/09/20 9:19 AM Reply


      • as Lightening Shore is friendless in the market just had £2 @ 14-1, had my tenner on Olympic Theatre @ 13-2 let’s hope Hayley can get him home.

        martin whittle 24/09/20 10:32 AM Reply


    • Hi Martin…have managed to do some figures for this race to help if not too late…took a while for various reasons….Lost in Space comes out best on my calculations running well at Nmkt over 7f keeping on well at the end and clocked 37.00 mph plus which is faster than anything else that has run. Hope this helps

      silver 24/09/20 12:57 PM Reply


      • never too late for me silver ! wd .. very astute as ever 🙂
        lgb

        GEORGE B 24/09/20 4:52 PM Reply


        • Cheers…pulled a muscle in my back getting something from the fridge…hence the delay, glad it was helpful to someone!!

          silver 24/09/20 5:00 PM Reply


          • ouch ……….. hope it was worth it .. beer or cocktail or somefink ?? no rushing in the future please ! 😉
            lgb

            GEORGE B 24/09/20 5:05 PM Reply


            • Mushrooms….NOT the magic kind!!!…Painful and loads of deep heat….anyway worth the wait eh!!

              silver 24/09/20 5:13 PM Reply


  • With a couple of my selections n/r’s and other n/r’s reducing fields to below 8 i’ve not much in the way of ew shot’s to post, a couple over in Ireland look alright.
    2-10. Take My Hand 16-1 4p, 0.5 pt ew
    3-20. Count Of Carabass 20-1 , struggling to work out if he runs i presume he does with 5 n/r’s, £1.50 ew
    3-55. Formula One silly 50p ew @ 100-1
    At Perth
    4-35, Kajaki 15-2 4p, 0.5 pt ew

    martin whittle 24/09/20 10:51 AM Reply


  • Be very interested in the Cambridgeshire Qualifiers when posted. I’ve been trying to sort them out without much success.

    I do like Derevo , Fifth Position, Dubai Mirage and King Carney but they all miss various stats. Or fail on others.

    Josh, someone said form at 10f to 10.5f was important. Any substance to that?

    Rick 24/09/20 11:58 AM Reply


    • Hi Rick,

      Yep, i’ll get them up later once HRB has the 48 cards up which is usually by 3/4 ish, and run stats through, saves me doing it manually which isn’t that practical for me. Ive just been through and watched videos of them all of last run etc – trying to get a handle before I look at the stats etc.

      Just had a look at the distance stats again…

      So, maximum distance WIN… I didn’t think too much in it, hence not inc in my stats…

      max distance win was up to 7.5f … 0/22, 2p

      max win was between 8-9f: 6/192, 25p … 13% win/place SR

      max win was between 10-10.5f: 6/114, 17p … 15% win/place SR

      Max distance win 11f+ … 0/43, 4p .. (maybe not a neg for said horses, more so that these ones are open to attack from those yet to win/show full hand over a staying trip – but depending on pace etc 9f on Rowley can take some getting)

      So, they’re ‘so so’ – you could use as a ‘positive’ rather than a reason to put a line through a horse, but that’s just me.

      Only 2 horses in 12 years hadn’t RUN over 8f+ in career

      4/77, 14p max distance RUN was 8-9.5f , 18% win/place SR

      Vs 6/170, 19p max distance RUN was 10-10.5f , 11% win place SR

      So, I wouldn’t be dismissing those without 10-10.5f form personally, obviously it’s a reason for improvement.

      I’m thinking the ground will be good racing ground – they have had odd shower and may have more but i’m not thinking it will go that soft, but we shall see. Breezy also. ‘no excuses’ ground, which I suppose makes it harder to dismiss any – there won’t be sting in it, and it won’t be a slog.

      Josh

      Josh 24/09/20 12:24 PM Reply


      • This is BRILLIANT info. Let me know when to sign up to the service.

        Yes, the discussion I had was with regard to having run at 10f as a conditioning part of the prep, not necessarily the winning. But now I see the stats I’ll just make sure they should stay.

        DUBAI MIRAGE very interesting to me. Dubawi 3yo stepping up in trip. Like Lord North last year.

        Rick 24/09/20 12:59 PM Reply


        • No problem, always happy to take such stats questions/requests and getting them done earlier gives enough time for looking/pondering.
          I’m still working on returning the ‘paywall’ (which I doubt will be before Nov 1st) and what the jumps season will look like – I need to make some changes, inc to business, and general sustainability moving forwards – which may or may not include biting the bullet and getting some help with some aspects.
          Josh

          Josh 24/09/20 1:51 PM Reply


  • yesterdays c3+ list had 1 winner and 2 places.
    my pick finished 3rd so no return on the day.
    todays c3+ video replay list
    NEWMARKET
    13:50 lightening shore / olympic theatre
    14:25 gale force maya / lady of arran / quickstep lady
    15:00 dark lion / yazaman
    15:35 mildenberger
    16:10 grand bazaar
    16:45 scottish summit / king ragnor / first winter
    PONTEFRACT
    14:05 highwaygrey / artic sound / iconic choice
    14:40 dark jedi / not so sleepy

    AW c4+ video replay list
    KEMPTON
    19:00 lancelot du lac / concierge / typhoon ten
    19:30 grey coat / boma green eevilynn drew
    MY PICKS
    SCOTTISH SUMMIT 8/1 trip didnt suit last time out and back down to one that does today. has been consistant all season and won well in the soft the last time at this trip. i think he is better than 8/1.

    warren bottomley 24/09/20 12:15 PM Reply


    • geebers .. this betting for a living is getting going nicely now .. cheers wb .. scottish summit ( my dna test has just come back and i am apparently 58*% scottish .. had to be ! )

      lgb 😉

      GEORGE B 24/09/20 4:49 PM Reply


    • Thanks Warren, excellent pick, saved my day!

      James Barker 24/09/20 5:29 PM Reply


  • great advice wb .. as always appreciated 😉
    lgb

    GEORGE B 24/09/20 4:50 PM Reply


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