Members Daily Post: 21/09/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

5. Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

(164 tips/19 wins/56 places (inc wins) /+29.1 points, advised/ +24.4 Betfair SP) 

None from me today, a guest tip from the man in form, Gary at ABW. A decent few days for any followers, with True Blue Moon and Magical Spirit piling up the profit… his Flat turf season’s stats now…

129 bets / 19 wins / 57 wins|places/ 44% EW SR/ +106 points (1 pt EW) 1k to 10k challenge, starting with 1.25% of bank (£12.50 EW) now up to £2880

As always, you can get an exclusive £5 trial month HERE>>>

Today’s tip…

#1 3.25 Ham- Auckland Lodge – EW – 8/1 (1 point EW if level stakes, 1/2 stakes if on the 1k>10k challenge)

“A couple we have backed of old going H2H with Liam Bailey’s Quanah and Jenny Candlish’s Show Palace. Tim Easterby’s Wades Magic, makes up the first three in the current market and with all of them under wipes yer face prices – looking at one who could just get in amongst these, with neither any serious C5 form?

Ben Haslam’s AUCKLAND LODGE has had couple of runs in C3’s at Ponty, where the stiff finish mirrors todays track. Last season she won three times as a 2yo with best form shown this time. Whilst she’s closely matched with Ventura Flame & Fanzone on 2yo running, the former looks to like a ‘quag’, and the latter is on first run since a 2nd quick stable switch.

Her July Run at Ponty over today’s trip saw her get squeezed for room, and her last was at a good stretch in a C3 at the same track where she led for a good way.

Back at 5f, she should be more comfortable and looking at the pace, likely she will be asked to make all.

Andrew Mullen is doing the steering on the trainers sole runner and there’s a best 10/1 with bet365 and regulation THREE slots for a half stakes opening selection for the week”

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2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

2.35 Leic – Strong Power (8/1<) 8/1 2nd

3.55 Ham – Dragons Voice (16/1<) 12/1 UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

K Stott

3.25 Ham – Quanah (16/1<) H2 5/2

 

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

None.

 

5. Horses to Follow

LosingTips

2.35 Leic – Strong Power (2nd) 8/1 2nd

 

6.Other/Updates

 

Trainer stats of interest…

I was flicking through Geegeez and a couple of trainer pointers/snippets caught the eye – maybe useful today, but certainly worth noting…

A jumps trainer…

Tom Lacey 

He runs Red Nika in the 3.15 Warwick – you’d think he will prove chucked in at some point here, handicap debut, stepping up in trip etc – whether he’s sharp enough on his seasonal return is the question I suppose. Anyway, one for you to ponder around 5s – the stats/pointers of interest…

 

  • His handicap debutants in the last year: 3/12, 7p (-1.25 SP)
  • A man in form, the last 30 days: 6/15, 9p, +12
  • He likes Warwick, 5 year record all runners: 9/35, 22p, +29
  • Jockey Johnny Burke riding like a man possessed at the moment, last 30 days: 9/24, 13p, +25
  • The trainer/jockey combo in the last year: 10/19, 13p, +17 (9/13,11p in handicaps)

 

Plenty of decent pointers there to ponder both today and moving forward – certainly a yard, and a jockey, worth keeping an eye on in the coming weeks it would appear.

A flat trainer…

David Brown 

I’m not sure if he’s an ‘under the radar’ flat trainer but clearly knows the time of day.

In the last 2 years his flat handicappers are 12/52, 24p +36 SP. 

They’re solid enough and the yard are going well , 3/8 in the last 14 days. 

He runs Cruising in the 5.05 at Hamilton – I had a brief look – he’s in form, just a question of whether the handicapper has him, but they are ‘doing something different’ in stepping up 1f in trip at a stiff track. That may unlock more. I haven’t looked in depth, nor at the race although the market would suggest its open and there’s no steamer as yet.

But, the trainer stats caught the eye for a yard, and they’ve plenty entered in the next few days, so they all could be worth a closer look, esp given their recent form.

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And… a dual-purpose…

Amy Murphy

It would be rude of me not to mention Amy given her stunning form across all codes, including working her magic getting Really Super back in the winners’ enclosure (it’s likely we will be running her in The Old Roan, provided it isn’t worse than good to soft – tilting at windmills but why not! Usually a small field – may be different this year I suppose but exciting nonetheless!)

Anyway… all runners in the last 30 days… 9/39, 16p, +48 SP

When Jack’s on her jumpers…. in the last 2 years (all national hunt runners) : 140 rides / 27 wins / 55 places (inc wins) / +40 SP 

In jumps handicaps, together they’re… 16/71, 28p, +67 SP 

They team up with Mercian Prince in the 2.45 Warwick, and he’s looking well handicapped if it clicks again over fences – back down into a C3 from that C2 LTO, CP back on – if he could build on that run two starts ago, he may well add to those stats above. We shall see.

Anyway, three trainers, three sets of pointers, for today and moving forwards, to absorb/ponder/ use however you please.

GL with any bets,

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

27 Comments

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  • I have to say Josh, signed up to ABW a few weeks back on your recommendation and have been very happy so far! Nearly got the f/c in the Silver Cup too. Thanks very much!!

    Doug Ockwell 21/09/20 9:23 AM Reply


    • great to hear Doug. I was I was inspired as him in the Silver Cup! Superb pick and bolted up. Glad you’re enjoying the ride.
      Josh

      Josh 21/09/20 10:47 AM Reply


  • No joy on Saturday.

    Two for Monday:

    2.15 Warwick, Pink Sheets – handicap debut, down in class, won in this class, will go from the front. 1 point each way.
    7.30 Wolverhampton, Glowing For Gold, suited by this step up in distance, trainer has good course form, won in this class, draw OK. 2 points win.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 21/09/20 9:23 AM Reply


    • nice work mc2 😉 … professional advice as ever 🙂 .. great confident ride as well 🙂 good .. move on lgb 🙂

      GEORGE B 21/09/20 2:22 PM Reply


  • 3.15 Warwick – Red Nika – 11/2 Tom Lacey said he was seriously overpriced at 6/1. Now shorter, but looks to have a good chance.
    4.20 Warwick – Luck of the Legion – 7/1 another Lacey horse – won the race last year and has been primed for another go.
    E/W double on the two with WH paying 5 and 4 places respectively.

    Andy N 21/09/20 9:28 AM Reply


    • GL Andy, good to hear those words from Tom Lacey which would suggest they think he’s fit enough, which was the main niggle – but like many, he can get them ready if required.
      Josh

      Josh 21/09/20 10:48 AM Reply


      • Yes, very good to see your stats backing it up!

        Andy N 21/09/20 10:54 AM Reply


        • Red Nika just pipped.

          Andy N 21/09/20 3:22 PM Reply


          • yep, ran well, no excuse, right spot, jockey stuck in plenty early enough – front two, both handicap debut, well clear – just beat by one with possibly shade more in hand, or just a tad sharper. Still, decent effort and the team clearly in good form, as are King’s in fairness.

            Josh 21/09/20 3:23 PM Reply


  • Just getting the ovens warmed up for aOctober all weather oven ready start !
    but in the mean time ……………….
    A COUPLE OF JOSH BASED ANGLE RUNNERS TODAY :
    NOT TIPS JUST AN OBSERVATION 🙂
    2.00 Leicester 1 Follow Suit (IRE) = Adam Kirby on a straight course of his liking
    2.35 Leicester 4 Strong Power (IRE) = Adam Kirby on a straight course of his liking
    4.10 Leicester 1 Agent Of Fortune = GL Moore hcp flat system

    enjoy 🙂
    have fun out there …. i know i’m not 🙁
    LGB

    GEORGE B 21/09/20 9:43 AM Reply


    • Here’s a Cheeky one …………….
      8.30 Wolverhampton 13 Blackcurantspangle

      as a well known lyricist once said … Life is a roller coaster …just gotta ride it ..ride it ! 😉
      until the next time lgb

      GEORGE B 21/09/20 11:54 AM Reply


  • Regarding the guest tip in 15.25 Hamilton I decided to do the speed figure for the race given the good form of ABW and thumbs up from my calculations together with Ventura Flame….the latter won a novice race round here a year ago (30/9/19) on what was described as heavy going clocking 38 mph plus ….this compares well with Auckland Lodge so have dutched the two e/w…..non of the other runners have come close to running at 38 mph plus. Quanah = 37.84, Wades Magic =37.66, Show Palace = 37.90, Economic Crisis = 37.78….Major Pusey has been beaten by Economic Crisis and Fanzone has clocked 36.78 mph…hopefully this helps in making a decision on what to back…all the best.

    silver 21/09/20 1:03 PM Reply


    • interesting – from the pace maps etc, she should be leading up the rail – she’s showed early speed for 3/4f the last twice at Ponter, but either outclassed or slowly coming to hand – or she’s gone too hard. The top 2 are solid but she could scorch up the rail, provided not too soft/sticky – although many Dandy Man’s handle cut – so we shall see.
      Fav has just come out so a big R4 now due.

      Josh

      Josh 21/09/20 2:07 PM Reply


      • Down to six runners so that is the e/w value gone and prices not value anymore with rule 4 so bit of a carve up in truth… Wades’ Magic now fav so if I was selecting this race to bet on I would give it a swerve!…the speeds I have show that both I put in will have the beating of the others so still hope for a good result if jockey have their internal clock calculations spot on…no guarantees there, however ! Gd lck

        silver 21/09/20 3:07 PM Reply


      • Auckland’s race at Ponte was a c3 and run in a fast time…..just think the horse was outpaced as the speed was 38.34 mph and now drops 2 classes so should beat this lot …Ventura on past novice form ran 38.27 and the Bev run was clocked running 38.98 mph so hopeful there that these two will fill the frame and finish 1st and 2nd!!!

        silver 21/09/20 3:17 PM Reply


        • Unfortunately Mullen went off like a lunatic so set this up for the closers and Ventura fortunately got second for my place so damage limitation and ABW selection will win when there is not a lunatic in the saddle.

          silver 21/09/20 3:32 PM Reply


          • over evens ! for ventura on 4tbp market .. very nice 🙂 .. and never in doubt ..,… not that i was after your timings silver .. vwd
            lgb

            GEORGE B 21/09/20 3:37 PM Reply


            • Would never accuse you of that GB!!!…great you got a result….so disappointed with the ride Auckland got, did the horse a great disservice….not usually critical of jockeys but the horse deserves better .

              silver 21/09/20 3:47 PM Reply


              • no no …. i fear i confused you with my mumblings (easily done) .. i was saying thanks to the fact that you gave me extra encouragement for the running of ventura .. i had it down to back on 4tbp .. and after you said it had a favourable running time from before …i felt happier in my judgement 😉
                on y va my timely friend 🙂
                lgb

                GEORGE B 21/09/20 8:12 PM Reply


          • well, she’s run the same way for the last 3 times in fairness – they’re either going too hard, unintentionally or intentionally, or they think she has to lead otherwise sulks etc . Maybe they’ve something pencilled in for a return to Catterick – still not sure if she needs proper quick ground. But yep, going to be hard getting home going that quick through 3f, visually at least. Maybe needs a flatter/downhill track also.
            Typical for me to pick a day for one to tail off haha, but that’s the game.
            Josh

            Josh 21/09/20 3:40 PM Reply


            • Yep see that but if you know what the horse is going to do surely you plan…part of the skill of being a jockey to ride knowing that…not a fan of the jockey anyway so probably biased!!! Sorry you picked the wrong one but the horse will win and deserved a much better ride…fastest horse dropping 2 classes and knowing the way she runs need remedial ride to get the best out of her…feel sorry for the horse as deserves a much more considered ride.

              silver 21/09/20 3:53 PM Reply


  • Good to see Lord GB and Silver back on here, not long till the start of the real AW season 🙂

    Mark Curtis 21/09/20 1:14 PM Reply


    • Thanks MC…just hope that I have not put the mockers on ABW’s selection!

      silver 21/09/20 1:28 PM Reply


    • yep thanks mc .. you are in the minority mind 😉 … but we get in the swing of it asap 🙂 .. nothing like a bit of sand in the wind .. to liven things up 🙂
      lgb

      GEORGE B 21/09/20 2:07 PM Reply


  • somebody lend me a large heavy pair of hobnail boots so i can kick myself, decided to take the day off today from racing and just looked at the results and i’ve missed 4 winners i backed lto (2 of which i posted) 3-1,5-1, 25-1 and 25-1.As Captain Darling said wrote one word in my diary BUGGER

    martin whittle 21/09/20 6:54 PM Reply


  • MC … TOP O’ the evening too you sir 🙂

    Did you know that you can back Mr khalid abhdulla fella runners blind on the all weather …. for a nice profit so far 2017 – present day .. one just gone in again 🙂 .. just another lgb thought 😉 ( but chelmsford is a bit iffy … so any except chelmsford i say ? 🙂
    laterz taterz 🙂 … up the black curants tonight .. i hope he is ajolly good fellowes tonight with his mew head gear on ??? 🙂

    lgb

    GEORGE B 21/09/20 7:40 PM Reply


    • Thanks for the tasty titbit old chum.

      Mark Curtis 21/09/20 8:17 PM Reply


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