Members Daily Post: 19/09/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

5. Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(164 tips/19 wins/56 places (inc wins) /+33.1 points, advised/ +28.4 Betfair SP) 

2.30 Ayr 

#1 – Lord Oberon – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen) UP

#2 – Danzan – 1 point win – 33/1 (gen) UP

3.40 Ayr 

#3 – Air Raid – 1 point win – 20/1 (bet365) 18/1 (gen) UP

#4 – Barbill – 1 point win – 25/1 (bet365) 22/1 (WH) 20/1 (gen) UP

that’s all for Saturday, as of 17.45 Friday, notes at the bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

2.15 Newb – Ilaraab (10/1< guide) H1  11/2  WON 11/2>15/2 

2.15 Newb – Royal Marine (10/1<) 18/1 ‘DNQ’ 2nd, 12/1

2.30 Ayr – Atalantas Boy (16/1<) H4 8/1 UP

2.40 Newm – Manaabit (7/1< guide) H1 7/4  UP

4.25 Newm – Angel Fairy (12/1< guide) 11/10 UP

4.30 Newb – Evening Sun (any) 11/2 UP

4.30 Newb – Diocles Of Rome (16/1<) 9/2 UP

4.50 Ayr – Make My Day (16/1<) H2 13/8 WON 13/8 > 6/4 

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Breeding/Sires

3.05 Ayr – Scarlet Bear 11/1 2nd

Jim Crowley (any)

2.15 Newb- Maydanny 15/2 UP

2.50 Newb – Elarqam 9/4 WON 9/4 > 2/1 

4.30 Newb – Baashir 9/1 UP

Jack Mitchell

3.50 Newm – Ocean Wind (any) H1 13/8 WON 13/8 > 5/4 

Ryan Moore (any)

2.05 Newm – Monsoon Moon 4/6  WON 4/6 > 2/5

Straight Track Specialists 

2.30 Ayr – Magical Spirit 22/1 WON 22/1 >18/1 

 

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

None.

 

5. Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

3.05 Ayr – Scarlet Bear (1st run) 11/1 2nd 

3.15 Newm – Dancinginthewoods (1st run) 8/1 UP

3.40 Ayr – Lahore (1st run) 33/1 UP

3.40 Ayr – Soldiers Minute (2nd run) 28/1 3rd 20/1

3.50 Newm – Rochester House (2nd run) H4 15/2 UP

3.50 Newm – Monjeni (2nd run)22/1  3rd 33/1

4.15 Ayr – Johan (1st run)  15/2  WON 15/2 > 9/2 

4.30 Newb – Blackheath (2nd run) 16/1 4th 

4.30 Newb – Diocles Of Rome (1st run) 9/2 UP

5.05 Newb – Union (2nd run) 10/1 WON 10/1 > 15/2

 

6.Other/Updates

Ayr Day 3

David O’Meara (12/1< SP best) (0/18, 2p bigger)

2.30 – Arbalet / Muscika

3.40 – Arecibo H4/ Gulliver

5.25 – King Of Tonga / Three Saints Bay

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Saturday’s Big Handicap Pointers

2.30 Ayr – Silver Cup

Trainers (to have won race prev 11 renewals – no race 2017- with runners)

  • Get Knotted
  • Hyperfocus H2 / Golden Apollo (won last year) / Danzan
  • Brian The Snail / Show Me Show Me / Wasntexpectingthat / Dylan De Vega
  • Louie De Palma

 

Trends Pointers

The 11/11 from stats leave 11/135 runners, 21 places… that’s 100% winners from 50% of the runners… but 48% of placed horses. So those outside of the 11 trends are 0/139, 23 places… so maybe some bad luck there etc, and they could be ‘busted’ this year. In any case, those 11 leave a long list of 14, which is a few too many for the purposes of this exercise.

From that list, those to have not run at Group Level (suggesting possibly that marks too high for handicaps, although on flip side have some class) leave 10/87, 13p…

Rathbone H3 / Admirality H1/ Bernado O’Reilly / Muscika / Golden Apollo / Lord Oberon/ Wasn’t Expecting That / Citron Major 

From that list, those with 2-5 runs are a positive, 9/11 (9/65 runners, 12p)…

Rathbone H3/ Admirality H1/ Golden Apollo / Lord Oberon / Wasnt Expecting That 

Of those, aged 3-5 (also a positive)… Rathbone H3 / Lord Oberon/ Wasn’t Expecting That 

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3.40 – Ayr Gold Cup

Trainers (to have won race prev 12 renewals – inc Haydock 2017- with runners)

  • Mr Lupton H1 / Gabriel The Wire
  • Stone Of Destiny
  • Wise Counsel
  • Bielsa / Hey Jonesy / Major Jumbo /
  • Arecibo H4 / Gulliver / Young Fire / Cold Stare

 

Trends Pointers

The 12/12 and 11/12 stats, (ignoring class LTO) leave… 10… (10/12, 10/100 runners, 26p)

Stone Of Destiny H3 / Staxton H2 / Wise Counsel / Air Raid / Arecibo H4/ Barbill / Rayong / Hey Jonesy / Cold Stare/ Young Fire 

Those drawn 1-7 don’t have a great record, but stall stats for races are always questionable year to year, but two above are drawn low – Rayong and Young Fire

From those 10, horses that ran 21-60 days ago could be seen as a positive… rather than under 20 being a negative as such… Staxton / Hey Jonesey/ Rayong / Cold Stare

From those 10, placing on last start a positive… Stone of Destiny / Staxton/ Air Raid / Arecibo / Cold Stare/ Young Fire

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Video: Ayr Gold Cup ‘walk through’ 

  • Who’s well handicapped against last winning mark?
  • Who’s proven in conditions (gong / class / course/ distance/ field size)
  • Pace/running style – where are the front runners / where’s best to be
  • The odd other snippet inc a quick dive into HorseRaceBase/ratings + trends above
  • Recorded for purpose of adding (hopefully!) to your own puzzle solving attempts
  • It’s not the shortest, but hopefully after this one i’ll try and be quicker, but it is what it is. Enjoy…

 

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Tips write ups…

2.30 Ayr 

Lord Oberon – 

I’m not really starting this more focused approach to Saturdays from a position of strength but i’ll plough on and see how we go. This horse looked the most interesting from my stats/trends shorlists above and 20s looked big. He’s well handicapped off 88 having previously won a C2 in 2018 off 90 and he’s lightly raced for his age. He’s clearly had the odd problem but it very much looks a matter of time. He arrives in ok form – that Newcastle race was strong for the grade, before having another break. I wonder if they’ve been waiting for awful ground. Whether he wants it softer I don’t know but the jockeys have been calling it hard work/dead on Friday – it’s drying but not the sort of ground you can skip along. An ability to stay on may be no bad thing. He arrives in form, running on at Haydock 15 days ago. He was on the wrong side of the track, beating his 2 rivals comfortably, Hyperfocus winning from the better part of the track. That was a run of promise and he can build on it here.

The Bronze Cup suggested being low isn’t the place to be – whether that’s an actual bias or one in the jockeys’ minds now, I don’t know. The winning jockey in that said this nearside walked pre-race like much better ground than low. We shall see if that plays out but i’ve nothing in these two races drawn 10<, so I may have to take my medicine. Plenty middle to high though, so no real excuse. Lord O should appreciate this strong gallop.

Danzan-

33s lured me in – I think there’s a chance he relishes this big field and again he looks well handicapped looking at plenty of his form. If you ignore LTO where he had no cover, and they didn’t go that quick, i’m not sure how he’s this price. Big Tim can seemingly win with the stable cat in the last couple of days and price has appeared irrelevant. This cavalry charge set up could see him run a stormer and he should do some damage from this mark when it all clicks. Whether the Barbill form from Chester is one of the right formlines remains to be seen. He travels like a horse who has been crying out for an end to end gallop. He hits my long list of trends pointers and big Tim has won this race previously.

Of the rest- well, I could detail other horses but where do you start.

Golden Apollo and Rathbone were on my ‘shortlist’ I suppose, I’ve gone for the bigger odds ones and I think they’re better handicapped, on paper anyway. Both of those should run well though. I’ll take on the inexperienced shorty drawn low and if he handles this sort of test so early, and is chucked in, so be it.

 

3.40 Ayr 

Air Raid

Another who hits some of my stats/trends and he just brings a different profile to this race – plenty of these have been running against each other all season. The Scottish Sprint Cup and this race was the plan before the season started and he’s won after breaks before. So, maybe that 65 days off is a positive. Maybe he’d want it a bit softer but if it is dead, I won’t use that as an excuse at the price. It isn’t fast and he’s hacked up on good previously. He tanked through the Wokingham when clearly needing it. His Hamilton effort, trying to defend his crown carrying 9-12, against an unexposed 3YO giving him 5lb (Meraas, who’d lead deep into the Stewards Cup) was solid. Based on his Hamilton win last July a mark of 97 could look lenient when it clicks again. The yard are going ok and the horse will travel on the pace from 14 – I suspect Jack will try to edge over to the nearside. He looked worth chancing at his price and could be one of the few who’s got a bit up their sleeve.

Barbill 

He’s on the trends list and in the ‘sweet spot’ on HRB ratings. I tipped him at Goodwood three starts back, impressed by that Haydock win (which has worked out well) where he ran no sort of race – maybe it was the quick ground and/or hating the track. In any case he then won at Chester a shade cosily (unbacked, alas). He ran a cracker in The Portland given the start – he got badly squeezed out and if you watch that back, it’s surprising to me at least that he then got so close – running on, 6/21, beaten 4 1/2 L.  It also transpired that he was on the wrong side of the track but he wasn’t knocked about, doing all his best work late. Based on his juvenile form this mark is workable, and having been gelded in the off season, he’s posted two career best RPRs in recent runs – 105 at Hayd, 106 at Chest. Maybe he likes flat tracks. He ran a stinker in this last year, but he wasn’t in great form at the time and had a long season by then. Franny is back on, Channon does fairly well up at Ayr, and he should run a big race. Decent price given his form/overall profile and his run LTO.

He’s drawn in the middle and usually tracks the pace.

Of the rest… Nahaarr looks short to me, the odd question now but the break may have been needed. But 7s in this sort of race is short, esp as dead ground is a question. As is his mark now. Stone of Destiny should go well but has stamina to prove over this 6f. LTO was the time to catch him and I missed him. He may well have a wall of horses in front of him in the final 2f. But she should go well. Staxton is solid but open to attack from something with more in hand. Yes well handicapped on old form but up a bit from his last win, when he had the run of the race up the favoured nearside rail. But it’s working out well. 10s may be fair. Wise Counsel is unexposed but I didn’t like how he went through the race LTO. CP enlisted for a reason and in a race like this he has questions. He has a ‘sexy’ profile for a race like this, hence his market position. One of the few lightly raced sorts so I can see the appeal. Not for me this time.

I wouldn’t be shocked if this was Arecibo’s time, and he’s on the right side. He should have enough pace to aim at but for win only purposes he’s too risky and keeps finding a few too good. The eye-shield needs to bring out more, which it may do. Maybe he’d be the annoying one but i’ll live with it. I should mention Gulliver– can he do a Summerghand and win a decent pot for the yard, carrying a big weight – maybe. His last 4 runs pose the odd question but I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran a cracker and went close- I thought they’d be something with a tad more in hand somewhere, but if he runs to his best, he sets the benchmark in races like this and he wasn’t beaten far last year, having been on the wrong side.

I’m hoping the main sustained pace is 12-16, so hopefully in the right place. Bungee Jump will go well for 4f of those drawn low and Bielsa should be up there form high also.

Anyway, four big pokes. With this more focused approach i’m giving myself a better chance in these races than I have been, long term. The winners will pay for plenty of losers in time, and i’ve a few of those to claw back.

 

What do you fancy? And/or what do you look for in races such as this? Do share 🙂 

GL with any bets,

Josh

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • Intriguing. Be interested to see what your final selections are for the Gold and Silver Cups

    Jerry Haley 18/09/20 3:08 PM Reply


  • Looking at the thumbnail for the video. Get the dartboard out with that instant expert. Almost glad my internet is down lol 🙂

    Warren Bottomley 18/09/20 3:45 PM Reply


  • got it down to 4 in each of the cups,
    Silver.
    Golden Apollo
    Muscika
    Get Knotted
    Atalanta’s Boy
    Gold.
    Major Jumbo
    Staxton
    Arecibo
    Bungee Jump
    probably have a couple of quid ew on them all and sit back and watch the cavalry charges.

    martin whittle 18/09/20 6:54 PM Reply


  • No joy on Friday, 0/2.

    Three for Saturday:

    3.40 Ayr, Barbill – not copying! A bit in and out but a winner in this class, trainer finding form again, his draw may not be good but I will take the chance. 1/2 point each way. And….Gabrial The Wire – he has some decent form if you ignore his runs at Chester, good draw. 1/2 point each way.
    5.25 Ayr, Harrison Point – on a hat trick, trainer in decent form, course and distance winner, has won in this class, draw OK. 2 points win.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 18/09/20 9:14 PM Reply


  • Josh.
    just trying to add a little kudos to your selection AIR RAID.
    I backed him in this race last year when Jed was quite bullish about him, but he was withdrawn on the day (vets cert)
    and I was taken By Jed Okeeffe’s words a few weeks before the gold cup.

    “We weren’t disappointed by his run in the Stewards’ Cup but the ground was too quick he is best suited to more give in the ground and a stiffer six furlongs.
    I am toying with the idea of running him at Ascot on September 7 but, without being too cocky,
    I wouldn’t want to pick up a penalty for Ayr.”

    So, if he fancied him off 101 that day, he should be rubbing his hands at todays 97. Hopefully he’s got him back to where he was last July, and he’s over his problems.
    His draw could have been higher but as you say, with his pace, he could tack across.
    Good luck.

    compound dave 18/09/20 10:34 PM Reply


    • Thanks Dave, we shall see. I do think he’s well handicapped, just a case of when he shows it again. Softer would have been ideal but he should go on dead and at his price I thought worth risky. His freshness may he a positive. He got worked up/warm before that York run last season, so maybe he is just tricky. I’m not sure Jedd was going that well when he ran at Ham, they’re running better now maybe. This 6f here seems to take some getting though. Fingers crossed.
      Josh

      Josh 19/09/20 9:26 AM Reply


  • BARBILL & LAHORE
    DSLR – 35MAX
    OR – 100+
    DRAW – 8+
    WEIGHT – 8.13+
    AGE – 3-6
    KEY FACTOR – MUST BE AT LEAST 4 POUNDS HIGHER THAN LAST WINNING OR

    DAVID DICKINSON 18/09/20 11:55 PM Reply


  • internet now seems to be back working but left me with little time to watch all of the c3+ races today. below is what i managed to through
    as its silly saturday again ive put my preferred picks in each race in capitals just for fun.
    NEWBURY
    13:40 EQUILATERAL / tis marvelous
    14:15 maydanny / tenbury wells / THE CITY’S PHANTOM
    14:50 extra elusive
    15:25 rhythm master / CAIRN GORM / bahrain pride
    16:30 DIOCLES OF ROME / la maquina / marshal dan
    AYR
    13:20 HEIGHTS OF ABRAHAM / pythagoras
    13:55 FOX CHAIRMAN / lord glitters
    14:30 norhernpowerhouse / lord oberon / LOUISE DE PAMA
    15:05 SCARLET BEAR / red fascinator / umm kulthum
    15:40 rayong / mr lupton / arecibo / KOROPICK
    16:15 irreverent / brunch / SHELIR
    16:50 GOOBINATOR / make my day
    17:25 national league / CLASSY MOON / ascention

    thats all from me today always good luck with your selections 🙂

    warren bottomley 19/09/20 2:39 AM Reply


  • Incredibly difficult day

    Good luck to all getting involved

    Rick 19/09/20 9:00 AM Reply


  • Young Fire Ayr 3.40

    I have absolutely nothing to say about this selection except its from my slipped finger strategy.I had intended to bet Rayong and on review discovered Young Fire had been selected.Looking back on my previous slipped finger bets they don’t do any worse than my intended bets,so i said feck it i will leave it there.

    gerry flynn 19/09/20 12:23 PM Reply


  • Morning,

    Sorry for not posting on here for a while, work etc took over for a little while. What a difficult day to come back on… Not much on the jumping front, but, I`ll have two stabs in the Ayr Gold Cup and see how we get on.

    3:40 Ayr
    SOLDIERS MINUTE 33/1 gen 1pt win
    I have picked one of Josh`s old selections, he didn`t get the rub of the green last time out and i feel this cavalry charge will be right up his street. 33`s for me is too big for a horse that always runs well, like Josh I can`t work out what he was being aimed at and that 2nd at York in August I believe is the key, he was unfancied that day and stayed on in my eyes, so, take out the fact he throws one good one in then a bad one, this should be his good day and that extra 1/2 furlong may be the difference!
    MR LUPTON 15/2 gen 1pt win
    I just felt Mr Lupton may roll up again here, he does meet STAXTON on less favourable terms and maybe that one will dot in with Mr Easterby in tremendous form, but, Ripon even though in the description it says galloping, is undulating and sometimes catches horses off stride, hence my choice of horse here, he is the form horse and i think the one to beat!

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today!

    Stewart 19/09/20 12:38 PM Reply


    • Good to see you back Stewart 🙂

      Warren Bottomley 19/09/20 1:32 PM Reply


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