Members Daily Post: 16/09/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

5. Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(161 tips/19 wins/56 places (inc wins) /+36.1 points, advised/ +31.4 Betfair SP)

#1 – 3.45 Yarm – Leodis Dream – 1 point win – 9/2 (gen) UP 4/1, -1

that’s all for today, as of 08.53, write up below…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

2.15 Sand  – Shoot To Kill (8/1<) 4/1 

4.30 Sand – Sparkling Olly (16/1<) H1 11/4 2nd

4.50 Yarm – Galactic Glow (16/1<) 16/1 3rd

5.00 Sand – Baarrji  (7/1< guide) H2 3/1 UP

5.30 Sand – Rose Grey (12/1< guide) H1 11/4

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Jim Crowley (any)

2.15 Sand – Sur Mer H1 11/2 UP

2.50 Sand – Aljaryaal 25/1 UP

4.30 Sand – Kwela 25/1  UP

5.00 Sand – Junkanoo H3 5/1 UP

5.30 Sand – Ruby Red Empress 28/1

Kevin Stott (16/1<)

3.35 Bev – Will Sommers  5/1 UP

4.35 Bev – Indian Sounds H2 7/2 WON 25p R4 , 2.6/1 

 

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

None.

 

5. Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

3.45 Yarm – Leodis Dream (2nd run) H3 9/2 UP

 

6.Other/Updates

 

Free Videos ‘How to Find Winners’ from top tipster/analyst Carl Nicholson – all can be watched for free on this page HERE>>> 

(I think he’s talking nonsense in the final 5 min video, but that may just be me – well he’s very anti stats in any form, and given my current troubles maybe he’s onto something -his long term record speaks for itself) 

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RIP Pat Smullen

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Leodis Dream…

I had a nibble at this one in that decent York handicap two starts back – a bit of a punt but before losing his way with David O’Meara he’d shown plenty of handicapping class and aged only 4, it was clear his new team had something to work with. He arrives here in form, having run well 3 days ago at Chelm over a trip he doesn’t stay- leading deep into it, posting his 3rd best ever RPR in the process. He’s well handicapped and I think it’s just a matter of time. Last September he won off OR 100 at Chelmsford, beating a horse called Rocket Action who came into it off 91, would win his next two, go up to 103 and then run in Group races. He then had 4 mediocre runs (well, they weren’t too bad) before leaving David’s having hit a high of OR104. He’s back down to 98 now and the 3lb claim will help – young Hogan is riding well and 1/11,5p for the yard – the Loughnane team have really burst into life in recent days, having had a very quiet time of it – 3 winners in the last 5 days, a few places and most running well. Last May this horse brought up a 5 timer in a decent Chester C2, off 94 – winning comfortably enough come the line, on ground that wasn’t ideal. So, his mark is fine- he’s got something to play with.

Conditions look ideal – 5f is his trip, and he seems best on the AW or fast turf – he was a NR twice after that York return on ground deemed not fast enough. The quick turnaround is a question but can be a  positive for sprinters as they don’t take much out of themselves but it depends on the horse. The fact he lines up suggests he’s showing the right signs at home. He will race up there but doesn’t have to lead, and settled well LTO. I suspect they may all be in a line behind Caspian Prince, before battle commences in the final 1.5f.

Of the rest… well I can cheer Caspian P home but I can’t back him at 4s and now 11, with no turf win in over two years, and the yard a bit quiet (1/41,9p last 14 days) I can take him on. I assume he will blast out as normal.

Blue De Vega is the main danger of course – but aged 7 he is on a career high mark in handicaps – 93 his highest winning mark. With Ray’s 5lb he’s on 95 but that’s still a question and does mean he’s open to attack from something with more in hand. Of course he does appear to be in the form of his life and could be getting better. That isn’t impossible with sprinters this age. He beat Stone of Destiny in his last handicap, two starts back, although that was softer ground and he seemed to be the only one to cope with it. Decent form though given that one’s win in the Portland. He also ran well in that conditions race LTO. But, Leodis has as much class at his best, and may have a bit more up his sleeve. And those runs will catch up with BDV at some point, hopefully today.

I was happy to leave the other two – they’ll have a chance if the fav or mine doesn’t run their race – I thought they both had too much class if they do although they’re receiving plenty of weight. I don’t know if Hollie would have had the choice, given she rode Leodis at York, or DL wanted Hogan on with his 3lb, maybe to reduce the actual weight if anything, or to ‘make sure’ if they decide to wade in.

In any case, I thought on form/profile he should be much closer in price to the fav here and 9/2 in the context of this race looked big.

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AYR – I plan to get any research boxed off today and will post asap – i’ll see if any trainer / jockeys of note for the 3 day meeting, and stats/trends for the two big sprint handicaps on Sat.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

3 Comments

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  • 0/2 Tuesday – terrible!!

    Two for Yarmouth on Wednesday:

    2.00, Camachess – course and distance winner, trainer has a decent course record, has won in htis class, will be held up which should be OK, draw not too bad. 1 point each way.
    3.10, Majestic Noor – course and distance winner, improving three year old, ignore last run, trainer has good course form, Hollie Doyle on board, can finish from off the pace. 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 15/09/20 9:01 PM Reply


  • Nigel Tinkler. Beverley hcps.
    last three years with horses under 9/1.

    17 wins from 36 races. 44%.
    Jockey. Rowan Scott 5 from 10. Faye McManoman 7 from 19.

    3:35 JUPITER ROAD 8/1 (Scott)
    4:35 GINGER JAM 7/1 (McManoman)
    Two wins and a double

    compound dave 15/09/20 9:03 PM Reply


  • Just one today,
    Bev 3-35. like Ginger Jam BIT OF A QUIRKE is a C&D multiple winner, 3rd behind Regal Mirage(now a n/r) lto over c&d and i thought the 11-1 4p(as long as 12 stay in) wh was good value , would have the beating of Five Helmets on that run. 0.5 pt ew.

    martin whittle 16/09/20 9:42 AM Reply


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