Members Daily Post: 15/09/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

5. Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(158 tips/19 wins/55 places (inc wins) /+39.1 points, advised/ +34.4 Betfair SP)

#1 – 1.30 Yarm – Thibaan – 1 point win – 7/2 (gen) UP 13/2, -1

#2 – 2.30 Yarm – Ajrad – 1 point win – 3/1 (gen) 2nd, -1

that’s all for today, as of 08.47, write ups incoming…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.20 Red – Devils Angel (9/1<) 16/1 ‘DNQ’ 3rd

4.50 Red – Atailof Two Cities (14/1< guide) 16/1 3rd

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Breeding/Sires

1.15 Red – Al Ghariyah 14/1 UP

Trainers/Sires

2.20 Red – Lion Tower 10/1 UP

Jim Crowley (any)

1.30 Yarm – Thibaan H2 7/2 UP

2.30 Yarm-  Ajrad H2 3/1 2nd

Jack Mitchell 

4.00 Yarm – Craigburn (10/1< best) 14/1 UP

 

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

None.

 

5. Horses to Follow

Losing Tips 

2.20 Red – Lion Tower (2nd run) 10/1 UP

 

6.Other/Updates

Tips write ups…

Thibaan – well I can hope for a 17/1 Jim/Hamdan double but i’ll take just one of them going in.

SMS does well here and is in decent form, 12/38, 23p in the last 14 days. In the last year with Jim up, in handicaps, they’re 8/15,10p, +8 which includes the selection LTO.

The horse… well I think he should leave a mark of 89 behind at some point and he could have more in hand than the rest of these. His Kempton run last November is working out well and he’d chase home Frankly Darling on his seasonal return at Newcastle over 10f – not knocked about, but stayed on there. At Leicester he may well have just bumped into one, the front two miles clear and it turned into a dash. They also reached for the TT after that, winning at Donny in pleasing style, and as if he had loads more to come to my eye. York was a so so run, cruising into it at one point around 2f but failing to pick up. The rain may well have got in there, and it’s no shock this son of War Front has shown a liking for rattling fast ground, which he should get today – and that’s a question for Tritonic and Emissary.

He has a nice way of going through his races, looking professional for his age, and it’s not impossible Jim tries to dictate this from the front. They step him up in trip here which could unlock plenty more and I thought 7/2 in this line up was overpriced. I preferred him to the two above in the weights. The Haggas fav may give me plenty to think about, he’s got a great attitude but also steps up in class and trip – the latter may suit but still it to prove, as has mine – but 6/4 to do so. The Haggas yard is 5/49 in the last 14 days, although 22 have won/placed, so maybe nothing in that, but 13/101,41p last 30 days, not rattling along at the 20%+ that he was. 39 days off for the horse also. And young Fallon Jnr ‘may’ still be working out how to ride this place, 1/27, 6p. But maybe not too much in that, but it is his first ride on the horse also. Tom hasn’t bothered wasting down for the ride, 8-7 the lowest he’s ridden , 8-6 here. Again, maybe nothing in that and not a shabby replacement.

Tritonic can take a grip so this small field/pace may not be ideal and good to firm is a question for him. Maybe he’ll outclass them but not for me. Emissary has a question on fast also after LTO, and an attitude question with the visor reached for – he’s taken a grip also in his races so i’m not sure that headgear will help. The yard are in fine form though, for the first time this season – 4/17, 8p in the last 14 days, +9, and Hugo Palmer’s runners may be worth some scrutiny now. They can fly in at prices also.

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Ajrad – 

Again I thought 3/1 looked a shade big here although 10/3, 7/2 now appearing.

Ed Dunlop is 6/26, 7p with his handicap debutants in the last year , +30. The sort of angle/results to keep an eye on. In the last year the trainer/jockey combo is 4/15, 7p +9. He’s also solid enough in C5 nurseries, 7/25, 9p +27 in the last 5 years, 1/4 at Yarmouth.

The horse… well he ran here 21 days ago and again he may appreciate this faster surface. If the handicapper is right he’s the join best horse in the race on what they’ve done to date, and as Donny proved, in nursery handicaps it can pay to focus on those near the top of the weights. To my eyes this looks to be the easiest race he’s run in and could leave a mark of 76 well behind.

He made his debut at Ascot, running a cracker in 2nd, chasing home Laneqash, also a Hamdan horse who Jim was on. He’d got very close in a Donny listed race, losing by a head, to one already rated 89, the front two well clear. His run here LTO was solid – keen enough, but boxed up with nowhere to go for an age, the 2nd making all, the winner getting the run on him – in any case those two could be smart enough, and Jim was very gentle on him, letting him coast home in 3rd, not beaten far, again the front 3 well clear. He seems to put his head down and respond to pressure and in this line up looked big enough. I think he has the best form on what they’ve done. He may also be able to get cover behind MJs horse who may well go forward again under Franny.

Kingmania is the danger for his in form team. However, she can pull a bit and has stamina to prove, stepping up in trip. That may well be the reason for improvement but Ponte is a stiff 6f and it wasn’t like she was hitting the line hard, to my eyes anyway. Her two races are also 1/33 since, inc 0/13 LTO for those to have run since. I thought she was worth taking on at her price and like all bar one in this, have to prove they have the winning mentality. But of course its the nature of the beast in these that they’re all generally open to some improvement.

I’ll hope mine has too much class and that it now all clicks, on his 3rd career start.

I think team Shadwell will be rather disappointed if this one can’t do some damage off 76 and hopefully he does, today.

GL.

 

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4 Comments

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  • 0/1 on Monday.

    Two win bets on Tuesday:

    2.30 Yarmouth, Majd El Arab – handicap debut, Mark Johnston runner at Yarmouth, has won in this class,
    should be able to lead, draw OK. 2 points win.
    3.10 Hexham, Black Kraken – won well last time out, trainer and jockey in form, has won in this class. 2 points win.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 14/09/20 8:24 PM Reply


  • Nice to see the odd jumps card to light up the dwindling days.

    For Three 4.10 Hexham 7/1 generally

    Horse is 2-3 at this tight course that suits some horse more than others.Trainer in good form and trainer/jockey combo quite good.
    I don’t like going below 10’s especially the night before,with the dreaded R4 but work dictates.Sometimes that 7 which is ok,can become 5 which is a no bet win or lose.
    Had Critical Thinking today at 10/1 which became 8/1 just before the off after one refused to enter stalls.Took the shine off it somewhat

    gerard michael flynn 14/09/20 8:58 PM Reply


  • a single c3+ with for runners and no c4+ at the all weather means no list today. the c3+ with 4 runners any one of the 4 could win to be honest.
    runners of interest today. the 2 harrington runners at Tipperary over in ireland should do well they are
    13:05 PROVOCATEUSE and 16:35 PYRAMID ROCK.
    looking at kempton 15:55 KINGDOM FOUND hit my kempton sire angle and is 12/1 so might have a dabble on that.
    lastly Richard johnson is dangerous at hexam, 46% strike rate, he has 4 mounts today non particularly big prices but worth a look all the same.
    they are.
    14:40 pinnacle peak
    16:40 robsam
    17:15 leapaway
    17:50 get on john
    thats all from me today as always good luck with your selections 🙂

    Warren Bottomley 15/09/20 6:11 AM Reply


  • Trying to fathom what is the puzzle of the Tipperary 4-35, Mrs Harrington’s Pyramid Rock is still a maiden but did run an improved 2nd lto in a similar event, Nibblers Charm 4-1 fav has won a recent hurdle and come 2nd in a 6k maiden but the drop back in trip may not suit so i’ve settled on POLITICISE 25-1 rated 123 over hurdles and gets in here off a career low flat mark of 74 with a 7lb claimer on has ran solidly over 12f in the past and this looks the easiest task for quite a while.

    martin whittle 15/09/20 12:23 PM Reply


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