Members Daily Post: 12/09/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

5. Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(156 tips/19 wins/54 places (inc wins) /+41.1 points, advised/ +36.4 Betfair SP)

#1 – 1.15 Donc – Diocles Of Rome – 1 point win – 11/1 (bet365/WH/BV) 3rd 7/1 , -1

#2 – 1.15 Donc – Misty Grey – 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365 / WH /888/BV/Unib) UP, -1

#3 – 2.40 Chest – Victory Chine – 1 point win – 6/1 (bet365) 11/2 (gen) UP, -1

#4 – 2.25 Donc – Hans Solo Berger – 1 point EW – 28/1 (SkyB/WH/PP – 6 places) UP, -2

That’s all for today, #1/2/3 as of 08.47, #4 as of 09.59, write ups at bottom… (yes yes, an EW bet has crept in!) 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.15 Donc – King Ottokar (14/1< guide) 16/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

1.15 Donc – Diocles Of Rome (16/1<) 11/1 3rd – 1

2.40 Chest – Victory Chime (16/1<) H2 6/1 UP -1

4.25 Ling – Reassure (7/1< guide) (x2 angles) 5/1

4.50 Chest – Harlow (9/1<) 4/1

5.15 Donc – Al Muffrih (12/1< guide) H2 6/4

5.15 Donc – Mankayan (14/1< guide) H3 85/40

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Straight Track Specialists 

2.25 Donc – Mountain Peak (any) H1 14/1 5th

4.05 Donc – Dingle H1

4.05 Donc – Mark of The Man H2 15/2

Jack Mitchell

4.20 Chest- Spirit Of May (any) 28/1

Kevin Stott 

2.25 Donc – Justanotherbottle (Ryan/1st headgear) 22/1 UP

 

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

None…

There is a qualifier for my Gary Moore angle, for those interested…

3.25 Font – Beat The Judge 11/4 WON 11/4>15/8 

 

5. Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

1.15 Donc – Overwrite (1st run) H3 12/1 UP

2.25 Donc – Soldiers Minute (1st run) H2 7/1 UP

5.15 Donc – Mankayan (2nd run) H3 2/1

 

6.Other/Updates

Doncaster Day 4

TJC Qualifiers (from research post HERE>>>)

1.50 – Saint Lawrence 20/1 UP

2.25 – Koncheck H3 14/1 UP

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BIG RACE TRENDS : NOTES HERE>>>

From those pointers above…

1.15 Donc

Trainers (to have won race prev 12 years/with runners)

    • Magical Morning
    • Overwrite H3 / Misty Grey

Applying the trends…

The 12/12 stats don’t help too much, ‘removing’ 5, leaving 7…

Magical Morning / Aweedram / Diocles Of Rome / Overwrite H3/ La Trinidad H2 / Teston H1/ Misty Grey

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2.25 Donc – The Portland

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

    • A Momentofmadness
    • Arecibo
    • Mountain Peak H1

Applying the trends…

The 12/12 stats (some of which are only ‘ok’) leave a long list of nine… 12/107 runners, 35p…

Soldiers Minute H2 / A Momenntofmadness/ Jawwaal / Mountain Peak H1 / Justanotherbottle/ Wentworth Falls/ Stone of Destiny/ Rock On Baileys / Deputise

All of those have 7+ handicap runs to their name. Looking at all runners.. only one horse has 1-6 runs in handicaps… Meraas

Those with 0-2 track runs from the long list above… Soldiers Minute H2 / Mountain Peak H1/ Stone of Destiny WON/ Rock On Baileys/ Deputise

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Tips write ups…

1.15

Diocles Of Rome

11/1 was all wrong for this Trainer Profiles qualifier, who also hits my race trends. He has some solid form to his name and arrives here on the back of a decent run, his seasonal return. He tanked through that and got tapped for toe to my eyes, but stayed on very well, doing all his best work late. He closed there like a horse who’s got something to play with off 87 and many of Beckett’s would normally step forward for the run. He could be one of these progressive 5YOs, the year that flat horses often fully mature. He does have to prove his stamina but he hasn’t raced over 8f since he was 3 and how he shaped LTO/his breeding suggests it may be what he wants – his trainer clearly thinks it is, and he’s in solid form again – and does well here.

The wind has played havoc this week – into their faces all 3 days so far and i’ll assume so again – unlike York/Ascot, Donny don’t seem to have as in depth info – they set the standards for their Festivals, links via BHA site to various info, and all tracks should be required to do the same. Anyway, this one is high, on the wing – stalls up the centre. But the pace – Teston/Overwrite is middle to high, he could get out, and tuck in behind Frankie. No excuses.

He was overpriced, whatever he does here. I expect a big run.

Misty Grey 

He’s since lost a leg since posting (esp on the machine), so no doubt 1 point loanedback for now… He’s got some questions but at 14s (now 18s), I found it hard to resist. MJ is 1/9,4p in the race , he hits my limited trends and 3YOs do have a solid record. He was rather eye-catching LTO and clearly has wins in him from this mark. He was sent off 50s there, held up cold, staying on very well in a solid C2 over 8f at Kempton. With a more prominent ride/stronger pace, he would have been very close, but I doubt that was the plan.

Joe jumps on today, he rides this place well, and on MJs handicappers here, returning within 10 days, he’s 4/9,5p. A random stat but still, every little helps!

His 2YO form is rather good inc getting close to Pinatubo, and various other Listed/Group runs, including here on Good to Firm, it was a 3 runner race but he got outpaced again over 6f, stayed on, beaten a nose – by Lazuli. He’s had a solid season, listed win, now rated 109. Brad The Brief behind, and he won a listed race a few days back.

The form is there to suggest 96 is workable, and of course he’s an unexposed 3YO. Breeding suggests he wants a trip. The ground is a niggle- Dark Angel’s can like cut, he handled Good/Firm last year, but if he’s bigger/stronger now a chance he feels it. But i’m educated guessing there, for a 14s shot. I’ll roll the dice. He’s one to track for the remainder of the season, whatever he does here. Could be one for the winter AW championships also. If he loses, hopefully just 1 point loaned!

Of the rest… one of the top two may win, but have questions at the prices for me. Maybe Walker’s will have too much, but a chance he gets outpaced, and he needs more, although a solid run LTO given he was keen/trapped wide. Prob the right fav but he’s low on the wing, hopefully battered by any wind. La Trinidad should go well- maybe they’ll race him more prominently. The yard are iffy at the moment but the horse was in form when last seen. Still, 11/2 for horses who can be held up and seemingly ‘finish strong’ is short enough for me.

It would be typical for Overwrite to beat me – conditions may be ideal. He’d be the annoying on given my history with him this season, inc LTO (what a stupid bet, 10f in soft). 8f on decent ground is his thing. I’d have thought Joe would have the choice but who knows. If the headwind is as strong as yesterday he could have his work cut out on the front end. Still, he’s a lovely horse and deserves another win. The market is suggesting I may have picked the wrong MJ horse (10s>7s), but the selection is open to further improvement and he’s open to attack from something better treated.

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2.25 – Hans Solo Berger

Well with 6 places available with SB/WH/PP –  (with any luck you still have at least one of those in use if following) – I had to go EW I think – having said I want to stick to just 1 point wins (and that will be the norm from now on) – i decided it would be over-confidence, or stupidity, to not go EW with these placed terms. IF he runs his race, gets a run, i’ll be surprised if he’s not top 6, (+4.6 points on race or so if placing) but i’ve said that before (well, usually with 5 places, said horses then finishing 6th!)

His price is just all wrong here to my faltering festival eyes.

He doesn’t appear anywhere above in the blog content but as it’s a trends race /feature handicap i’ve had a good look, and he was the one my pin landed on.

Firstly I think he’s in the right place on the track – with Ornate out, there is no pace for the high horses to tow them into it – Mountain Peak, Jawwaal and Soldier’s Minute ‘could’ be marooned up this side, and have their work cut out.

Hans is right next to Meraas, Just Another Bottle and Momentofmadness who generally like to go forward. Yimou can from 13 but i’m not sure he’s quick enough to sustain it. Barbill to his left can go forward also, and I suspect Konchek may blast out from 1, in 1st visor (which put me off, decided he needs more to cling on here, but he’s interesting). He should be able to sit prominently without being rushed off his feat, behind all those horses, with cover. George seems to have admitted in his RP quote that he rode him wrong two starts back – well he was too far back. It was his first run at York though and in a C2. That was a deeper race than this IMO, Jawaal behind him there. Tarboosh has franked the form, as has Hyperfocus. Soldier’s Minute re-opposes (this could be sharp enough for him, and no pace his side) . The pace held up that day also, which surprised me -ah if only the winner had folded, as my two 50/1 monsters chased him home. Fine margins. I have the same feeling – both gut and head – as I did for Tarboosh and Soldiers M at York, but of course I went win only there, lured in by the big exchange prices.

Really, he hasn’t run a bad race all season and has been very consistent. He’s clearly improved massively this year as a 5YO. He ran a stormer at Newmarket LTO – soft enough for him and shouldering 10st. It was a C4 but the unexposed 3YO came into it on the back of a C2 win at York in an ok apprentice race- and with the jockeys claim, Hans was giving him 20lb! Beaten 3/4 of a length. That’s a big run. And also a career/seasons best on RPRs. He also has course form which helps. The ground will be fine and I expect a monster run. Whether this is one trip to the well too many, we shall see. But he’s 28s.

His trainer is in red hot form- the most in form trainer in the race I think, 3/12,5p the last 14 days, 7/28, 10p the last 30. He’s actually had 3 runners in this race, 2 of them have placed.

Looking through this, he was the standout at the prices.

I could go through many of the others, but I can’t be bothered really. These races are what they are. I didn’t like the prices of all those under 10/1 and they all have various questions to answer – in the context of price. They can beat me, which maybe one will.

I suppose the annoying two would be Mountain Peak and Konchek, who appear above in various places and do well against HorseRacebase ratings. Still, MP has his draw to overcome (but I may have read that wrong) and does need more, up 4lb in a deeper race, and K has 1st visor which I don’t really like in races like this – and he was stuffed in this last year-  that’s what put me off, and stall 1 doesn’t have a great record in this race /trip /field size. And being prominent, if the wind is the same as all week, may not be ideal. But, maybe it will now be a tailwind and he’ll get out and stay out! Barbill is a previous losing tip from Goodwood, then left LTO. Damn. I wonder if this ground may be quick enough, and in any case he needs more/has the odd question now in a race of this nature.

Clearly you can make cases for many, that’s the nature of the beast. But he just looks the wrong price to me. Way too big, in a race that often throws up a decent priced winner. Here’s hoping. I could do with another monster landing.

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Victory Chime – 

Hopefully I won’t need him to get me out of another Saturday hole (i can’t stop digging) but i’m confident he will. I think he just wins. Maybe that’s too confident but in any case, 11/2 gen was big in this line up, esp after Maydanny came out. That makes this a weak enough C2.

He ran LTO as if there’s more to come from him this season – a day of the 5 year olds! Maybe. That was a deeper C2 than this and he was poorly positioned – too far back in a race where it paid to be handy. He used a lot of gas to get into a challenging position, but was still running on at the end. That Windsor win is working out ok and Beckett has booked Hanagan – they’re 3/7,5p when teaming up in the last 5 years – 2/3, 3p at Chester! Solid. In we go. (PH can’t do the weight for Fahey’s runner in this, 8-6 the lowest he’s ridden in last year) The visor also returns – 2/3 when wearing it – and he is maybe the sort that needs it changing up every now and then. But he’s nothing but consistent. Or has been. Let’s all pray for The Beckett double! Chester another track he does well at.

He should race handily – further forward than at Sandown, no excuse here.

Lawn Ranger will try and lead – the form of his race LTO is working out well, with Straight of H winning here this week in a decent handicap. But he is 0/5 0p at C2 level, 0/6,1p OR 91+, and a new jockey on. Pass.

Prejudice – I just don’t like him – he may well beat me but I can take him on at the price – to my eyes he dogs it in when challenged – well, maybe that’s harsh – just a bit too soft/backs out – he should have won the last twice for me. He’s 1/11, 2/1. Nope. (obviously he’ll now show true battling qualities) If he has to pass Victory Chime – he should do if PH rides him properly, he could be in trouble. Mine will fight him off, I think. Be More needs more I think, I could leave at 9/2. The Dr’s two have even more questions.

This is VCs for the taking I think. In any case 11/2 was silly. He should be 7/2, 3s in this line up for me.

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So, four pokes. Hopefully one of them can get the job done otherwise we are getting into horrible territory given this run. But having bottled a few Saturdays after poor form in previous days/Fridays (mental weakness, missing 2/3 decent winners), that isn’t the way forwards. This game is for the foolhardy, and the brave. On we march… possibly to ‘normal’ races, but this is the last of the big 4/5 day flat festivals at least. It will soon be the turn of the jumpers for me to anguish over 🙂

GL with any bets as always

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

26 Comments

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  • FOOTBALL!

    It’s that time of year again, a free 22/1 trixie from my good friend Paul Ruffy who does very well with his low risk footy betting to small stakes (5/10s).

    You can find this free trixie in Friday’s email for those interested, repeated here>>> https://bit.ly/2DNSSEO

    Josh

    Josh 11/09/20 12:20 PM Reply


  • Just a word on my form… 

    I’m not that concerned in truth, although its getting to the uncomfortable stage but that’s the game. I don’t feel bang out of form in how I’m reading it, just some daft decisions and a few errors, and at times lacking confidence maybe. However, in search of some confidence to evaluate whether i’ve just been lucky this season at times (which may well be the case) I have looked at my form in ‘normal’ racing vs the ‘big 4’ 4/5 day Festivals – Royal Ascot / Glorious Goodwood/ York Ebor/ Doncaster Leger (to date) …

    46 bets / 2 wins / 12p (inc wins/ -6.4 / +11.43 BFSP. 

    They were +40 after Ascot, urgh. And that festival run has done the damage. Take out that biggie winner at Ascot and those figures look rather awful. And they still don’t look great. A 25% win/place sr in the most competitive handicaps around isn’t too shabby, and one or two more going in makes a difference of course. But, attacking those races is clearly choppy water territory and I may be a bit gun-ho, without the skill to match the bullishness as yet. Whether those four big Festivals should be attacked with a ‘fun bank’, not at all, or I just need to pick my battles/horses better (a feeling that I have to have a go maybe, too often), is the question there. 

    Of more promise, for myself more than anything, is that without those four festivals there is some hope… (and i’d prefer it this way round I suppose)

    105 bets / 17 wins / 41 places (inc wins) / +52.5 advised (non bog) / +30 BFSP

    They’re solid and i’d bite your hand off for those to be repeated every 105 bets. It’s those competitive festivals which need some pondering maybe. 

    Josh 11/09/20 3:37 PM Reply


    • Hi Josh
      + 52.5 adviced + 30 BFSP
      That is a big difference of 22.5 points, now some of the large betting HCs Betfair used to be upto 10 points or more than the bookmakers SP, have noticed since the resumption of racing betfair SP has declined, and there are more 18/1 or 22/1 replacing the 20/1/ 25/1 from the bookmakers.
      Need the Independant bookmakers back on course to stop the large bookmakers destroying the betting market for their greedy gain.
      PP bought Betfair and Ladbroke bought Betdaq exchanges said that they should not have been allowed to purchase them at the time, and seeing the decline of betfair prices is very worrying, have never had a bet with Betdaq.
      Colin

      cleafe 11/09/20 5:54 PM Reply


      • Yep it is a fair difference but to be expected I think given yea that figure isn’t those big handicaps… And that’s where the big betfair SP will be. The biggest jump was Scarlet Dragon at Ascot, 33s SP and 55 odd BFSP. But my advised prices (non bog) should be way ahead of BFSP, as that’s some indication at least of getting value. As BFSP is the true price of the chance of the horse (over thousands and thousands of bets/time of course, not our small little window in time) but still, the general point stands. If you only have access to BFSP I suspect its best to stick to big races, or assess value and take a price at some point leading up to race. No ideal solution. Josh

        Josh 11/09/20 6:14 PM Reply


      • Ladbroke/Coral shaving prices daily now they are off Oddschecker.
        But BFSP may reflect the recent(?) switch to exchanges by backers from the poor value that the books offer now, so their SPs can reflect that.
        The BFSP of Bernardo Oreilly was a case in point, y’day.

        Chris 11/09/20 6:25 PM Reply


    • Surely you would enjoy your tipping/punting a lot more if you tipped each way? Quite possibly not as profitable but surely seeing some reward for decent selections has got to be better mentally and ultimately more fun?

      Chris Sengelow 11/09/20 9:02 PM Reply


      • betting/tipping is for one of two reasons:

        to have a bet and enjoy it:

        to bet for a defined profit.

        I do not get the each way issue unless it fits one of the two above. What studies I have seen point to a win only approach over each way in the long term re profit. I personally mix it up which is the best way I think. I do not think that each way for Josh is the way to glory.

        Martin Colwell 11/09/20 10:39 PM Reply


      • Hmm, that’s the age old debate.
        I know from experience I detest not having 1 point on the win side when the biggie goes in, as they have, and will do again. The 25/1, 33/1, 50/1 shot and name your price on the machine. That annoys me more than any slump. I personally can handle big drawdowns, the public posting/pressure/business obviously has some mental impact but that’s the game. I mean when you look at those stats above look how many don’t place. The placed element doesn’t make up for that. Win only with my approach is the best long term strategy.
        The question, for now, based on this flat season (and its the first one I’ve really attacked properly and with just focusing on the blog content as a way in) is what to do with those big monster festivals and the big races. There is a valid debate/pondering on those as to approach where I don’t feel the pressure so much and enjoy it more. Whether that’s a 1/2 EW, more selective, separate bank for fun, or do through the cards etc, is something to ponder. I’m more than happy with the results ignoring those 4 biggie festivals.
        In saying that I’ve had plenty go close all season. 5/6 of the placed horses go in and its happy days.
        The swings are what does it. I’ve spent time in last week or so looking at many tipsters in my ‘inner circle’ etc, all who’s long term records stand the test of time. There isn’t one that doesn’t have 40-90 point drawdowns from their high point. They are quite simply unavoidable.
        I hate being wrong, and making naff decidions. Esp when I’ve been close so many times or indeed when I’ve bottled it (lucander 14s /documentin 12s the two culprits there) or when should have been on a Just Hubert 20s or a Summer Moon 18s. Or a Tarboosh 8s and Straight of Hormuz 13/2. Those 6 winners were within touching distance. That’s more a positive than a negative but of course poses questions. And if I land on half of those I’m having a brilliant season. Its fine margins.
        The content is finding winners, that’s the main thing. The rest will take care of itself. And everything mentioned above is racing and betting. A game of the mind.
        We are not doing too badly. Of course if you started backing at the +85 point you’re probably long gone.
        That +46 looks fine spread out over 3.5 months. If you said, Josh, I’ll give you +12/14 points every month, evenly spread, forever more. Would I take it? Damn right I would. Alas, I’m yet to find such consistency. I don’t even know if that’s possible in this game. But I’ll keep trying.
        Onwards 🙂

        Josh 11/09/20 11:36 PM Reply


        • My thread is deliberately about EW betting in handicaps, of all qualities, as along term concept. I’m using the place element to cope with losses that are inevitable in trying to identify those big priced winners which I land occasionally. So far so good.
          I make a lot of mistakes but I only know one answer, study more.
          I think Josh and I are in the same position (excuse the arrogance), we lack a partner/sounding board to work with.

          Chris 12/09/20 3:45 AM Reply


          • I think that process is likely more important than time studying. The winning process is what has been successful for people over time. Do study of course but you can do too much and confusion the mind and tire the brain. Work on getting the process right. I think that Josh and others here have the rest of us to sound off of if they wish to.

            Can I suggest that the word ‘arrogance’ is not suitable to use in the same sentence as oneself. Not good.

            Martin

            Martin Colwell 12/09/20 9:37 AM Reply


  • Just a note on the comments function. Not sire if it’s changed since phase one of back end work. But with the form you only need to fill in your name (or whatever you want in that box) no need for email etc in order to post. If you don’t put something in the ‘name’ box it will come up as anonymous
    Josh

    Josh 11/09/20 6:17 PM Reply


  • 3:00D MOLATHAM
    Over the years (9) Hamdan Al Maktoum has ran 139 horses in group 2 races. Winning 37. (26%. not bad).
    The last 4 years. 51 runners and 22 wins (43%. getting better).

    When he runs a horse in a group 2 race, coming from a group 1 race.
    It’s 21 runs 14 wins (66%)
    The main reason for this of course, is Battash. Who takes 5 of those wins.
    But still. Decent stats.
    Does Hamdan have a say in his horses targets?. Do they have a system?. Is it just luck?.
    I don’t know.

    compound dave 11/09/20 10:13 PM Reply


    • Oh Hamdan is very involved I believe. Not much luck about their operation, certainly with targets. Suspect he’d be one of most engaged around, he will know bloodlines and formline etc off top of his head and I suspect what some of his will need based on their breeding etc. They’ve clearly upped the breeding game in recent years, maybe changed someone 4/5/6 years ago as a good crop this season.
      Angus Gould the racing manager has been around got years and is clearly influential, having a retained jockey obviously helps. And they have the Hills brothers, not sure if one or both work for Shadwell but very involved, including riding lots of them in their homework and helping with race planning. It’s a pretty good operation from the outside. And they’ve now got a private trainer in effect with Burrows and use some of best trainers around.
      Not sure there’s much luck, certainly not until the stalls open!

      That’s solid stattage. GL
      Josh

      Josh 12/09/20 2:02 PM Reply


  • No joy on Friday: 0/2.

    For Saturday:

    2.35 Doncaster – Santiago, a class horse, will stay well, top trainer and jockey, should be the favourite.

    3.25 Fontwell, Ashutor, can reverse previous form with Beat The Judge, course and distance winner.

    Both 2 points win.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 11/09/20 10:46 PM Reply


  • thursdays c3+ results as i didnt post yeserday were 2 wins and 3 places from the 7 races.
    my pick as usual didnt fare to well but a good priced one will come along and it will all be forgotten lol .
    todays marathon c3+ video replay list
    just for fun ive marked my prefered pick for each race in capitals as its saturday and as ive learned for me saturdays are best watched most of the time.(lets see how bad this goes) 🙂
    DONCASTER
    13:15 la trinidad / teston / MISTY GREY
    13:50 albasheer / DEVIOUS COMPANY / state of rest
    14:25 konchek / STONE OF DESTINY / danzeno / han solo berger
    15:00 LIMATO / breathtaking look / one master
    15:35 BERKSHIRE ROCCO / santiago / subjectivist
    16:05 LINE OF REASON / legend of dubai
    17:15 TORONTO / away he goes
    CHESTER
    14:05 HEREBY / alignal
    14:40 restorer / LAWN RANGER
    15:15 overhaugh street / MANCINI
    15:45 MACHO PRIDE / riffaa wonder
    16:20 brian the snail / GABRIAL THE DEVIL / penwortham
    LINGFIELD
    15:20 WALTON STREET / desert fire
    MUSSELBURGH
    16:00 FURLONG FACTOR / risk of thunder

    my picks
    BERKSHIRE ROCCO 33/1 E/W (st ledger)
    i’m hoping distance and breeding is the key here quite a few including my pick have not ran over this distance. santigo has and will stay the trip and should and probably will be favourite come race time, subjectivist should also stay and is a nice price, is he a group one horse remains to be seen but he might not need to be as the distance might find a few better than him wanting come the end of the race. pyledriver would be fantastic for connections if he wins but nothing suggests he will stay in his breeding which brings me to the next two. mythical isnt out of this on breeding it does suggests he will get this trip and is a massive 66/1 but im gonna side with berkshire rocco his breeding suggests he will also stay the trip, balding is in fine form at the moment and looking at the replays of his last few races i just like the style he has carried himself in them. speculative yes but a case can and will be made by others for most of these this is just my take on it.

    over the sticks
    fontwell
    2:50 fume
    over in Ireland
    Leopardstown
    2:00 vario
    3:10 valeria massalina
    3:40 cadillac

    thats all from me today enjoy what will probably a bonkers saturday for better or worse and as always good luck with your selections 🙂

    warren bottomley 12/09/20 4:26 AM Reply


    • Jesus I actually picked one off my list lol.
      Must put the lottery on tonight. 🙂

      Warren Bottomley 12/09/20 2:38 PM Reply


      • UL there Warren, some thrill cheering him home no doubt. Top picking – annoying to place/go so close, but some comfort that no excuse I don’t think – he’s run his race. And well done with Stone – i couldn’t even get the draw/pace right in that!

        Josh 12/09/20 3:51 PM Reply


        • Unfortunately I didn’t get to see the race live I was busy dealing with a customer’s mobile phone at work but judging from the finishing distances it was quite a race which I will watch later. Surprised pyledriver finished third didn’t think he would stay at all and there was nothing in what I saw in replays or anything other that would of made me pick the winner so I’m more than happy with the result. Stone of destiny was a nice bonus also. Hopefully someone on here managed to find something on the video list today I think there were a couple of others that went in but won’t know for sure until I check them all later. Unfortunately there are gonna be less high class races from now on in which is a shame as it’s pretty obvious to me now theses mid sized listed/group races are where I’m at my best. It looks like that’s my niche. Until next year lol……

          Warren Bottomley 12/09/20 4:36 PM Reply


  • Maybe too many selections Josh?
    Your methodology is correct but seems to me your expecting the process to work repeatedly on any given day.
    I use SWIP
    stop when in profit.
    Sure do the work, get the selections but why carry on when your in front on the day?
    First bet for me yesterday was Tranchee – job done.
    Only a thought.

    DAVID DICKINSON 12/09/20 9:41 AM Reply


    • No real logic to that one! What difference is there between one hour, one day, one week? What happens if you have six selections over six days and they all lose. You do not stop then but you stop at a loser.

      I do agree that with tipping that the more volume you have the more likely you are to be less selective in making picks. As I said before if you have a good process that will sort out the issue of volume of selections.

      Good luck Martin

      Martin Colwell 12/09/20 11:25 AM Reply


    • Hi David,

      I think there’s an argument that in those big four Festivals, I have thrown too many darts – and we may need a more considered/separate approach to those next year.

      If I strip those out, that’s 105 bets in 100 odd days or so – that’s fine, maybe not enough! But comfortable.

      Sadly, practicality stops me from ‘stopping at a winner’ – in this blogging game they all have to go up at once, and i’d agree with Martin in terms of the logic of said approach.

      There’s no right or wrong, or perfect way forward. That does depend on the individual (i’m usually a less is more) but ultimately, it is about grafting/studying harder, and nailing down that process, and sticking to it.

      Josh

      Josh 12/09/20 11:43 AM Reply


      • Apologies probably didn’t make myself clear.
        I was answering in context to Joshs comments about the big festivals. The racing is extra tough at these festivals and any winner is a godsend never mind finding more!
        My only bet today so far is Dawn Patrol in the St. Leger as I have backed him ante post months ago so today I’m just topping the bet up.

        DAVID DICKINSON 12/09/20 3:33 PM Reply


  • EW bets:
    115 Teston
    205 Hereby (2p)
    225 Saluti
    240 Victory Chime (2p)
    300 Molatham
    325 Ballywood
    335 Mythical
    345 Zaman Jameel (2p)
    400 Furlong Factor (2p)
    435 Royal Brave
    540 Makyon
    600 Dourado
    615 Lagenda

    Chris 12/09/20 12:12 PM Reply


  • High Definition bet:
    Hollie Doyle’s six mounts at Lingfield 245-530, win only.
    Staking: first bet 1pt, increasing stake by 0.2pt for each succeeding bet until a winner. Revert to 1pt if in profit.

    Chris 12/09/20 12:21 PM Reply


  • hi josh ,
    good day for me with warrens help and my hrb ….. also very very very interesting is……… i took onboard your gl moore angle .. adapted your jumps version to my uusual ‘enth degree on hrb ….. and also created my own flat version which has taken in all his big winners so far .. and it also gave 6.00l thechildrenstrust .. hey presto an angle to move forwward with .. thanks for your efforts as always 😉

    cheers
    lgb
    p.s. keep it up wb 😉 … u iz a winner 😉

    GEORGE B 12/09/20 6:09 PM Reply


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