Members Daily Post: 11/09/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

5. Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(151 tips/19 wins/53 places (inc wins) /+47.1 points, advised/ +42.4 Betfair SP)

#1 – 1.40 Donc – Hochfeld – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) UP, -1, no excuses there, but for today’s punting reference if not too late, it’s the strongest wind of the week, headwind up the straight.

as of 07.57, that’s all for today, write up at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.40 Donc – Alfaatik (any, 20/1<) H3 2/1 2nd

1.40 Donc – Volcanic Sky (10/1<) H1 6/1 3rd

2.30 Sand – Campari (any) (x2 angles) 6/1 UP

2.30 Sand – Dubai Mirage (10/1<) H1 11/4  3rd

3.35 Sand – Lawahed (10/1< guide) (x3 angles) H1 11/4 UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Jack Mitchell 

6.05 Salis – Bear Attraction (any) 13/2

 

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

None.

 

5. Horses to Follow

Breeding/Sires

3.15 Donc – Selino (14/1<) 11/1 2nd

Losing Tips

1.40 Donc – Calculation (2nd run) 6/1 UP

Hot-Form

3.05 Sand- Ebury (2nd run) 11/2 UP

6.05 Salid – Cadeau Dor (1st run) 7/4

 

6.Other/Updates

Note: Saturday’s trends pointers will be posted at some point Friday morning, in Saturday’s post. I’ll be looking at the 1.15 and 2.25

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Doncaster Day 3

TJC Qualifiers (from research post HERE>>>)

None.

 

Handicap Pointers

Two handicaps on Friday of mild interest, trainer records wise. Relatively small fields so I won’t bother with any trends…

1.40 

Trainers (to have won race last 12 years/with runners)

  • Alfaatik 2nd
  • Sleeping Lion (horse won race last year) H2 UP
  • Calculation UP
  • Hochfeld UP

2.10

Trainers (to have won race last 12 years/with runners)

  • Shabaaby UP

**

Today’s tip write up…

Before that – yesterday was poor from me – not the selections as such, but the write ups were mediocre at best, given I didn’t mention any of the 3 winners from the races covered. Woeful, esp the Nursery given her place on the trainers list/miles clear top rated HRB. Poor. That annoys me more than the results. Failing at some of the basics. (inc pace- front runners / trainer/ jockey)  My wine stash needs replenishing this morning (yes yes, I joined a wine club during lockdown, I think that’s what you’re meant to do when getting to the wrong side of 30!) Ugo ran his race- sadly he had nowhere to go at the wrong time, DA sat motionless as the winner got going down his outside. With a clear run they have a ding dong battle to the line, but that’s flat racing, I got the price, so won’t moan about that. It was a good bet. Ventura ran ok, no pace nearside – i knew that was a danger, still lured in. Still, she was a tad underwhelming in 5tn, but has more races in her. I’m not sure as to her stamina, maybe a stiff 5f or flat 6f, strong pace, is what she wants. To the eye she has the scope to make up into a decent 3yo. The winner did it well from low, making all. Well done Mr C for landing on her, the first of a hallowed double. Superb.  I think Chris landed on a couple of biggies also, so at least some of your shrewdie eyes are working. Black Caspian clearly hasn’t run his race, so no need for moping around there. Something has to be amiss, as he stopped as if a switch had been flicked – no idea if struck into but even if the ground was firm enough, that wasn’t an excuse for how quickly he went backwards, nor was the trip or the fractions. Luke Harvey fancied him, alas, his fate was sealed. He didn’t need that double penalty. Poor sod. He will win handicaps, 7-8f, some cut – maybe needs a bend, 7.5-8f around Chester may suit. He’s pacey, and his form is decent. They should find something for him off 84 but he now has a question.

We move on (with a clear head i’ll add, I didn’t go silly, it was a school night after all)

Hochfeld…

The pace map lured me in here – the main attraction at his price, and given the connections/jockey. On paper at least there isn’t hardly any. Most of these like to be held onto, or have been. I’m hoping they all stick to their usual styles as I suspect SDS will try to dictate/make all. He’s the most likely pace setter and should get to do his own thing. The horse doesn’t have to lead though, but will be in the right place in what could be a tactical affair.

14s looked generous, especially as MJ is 4/24, 10p in the race, stretching back 22 years or so. It’s clearly one he likes to have a runner in and knows which one to pitch into it – he’d have had a handful to choose from I suspect. 3YOs usually do well in this but there’s none of those this year and he’s not your usual 6YO, given his long break before this year /how lightly raced he’s been since Nov 18. Well, lightly raced for this yard anyway.

He’s been running well this season. It took him a few runs to wind up, probably running him into fitness/form, given the break. That Goodwood C2 win was solid enough – not a fantastic race for the grade, but it’s comparable form with what most have achieved in here, and four of them have a C2 question, having yet to win above C3 level. He has the form to win this and the mark is fine. He’s run in some much deeper races than this in his career, and run well. With the ground drying, conditions look ideal. I’ll hope there isn’t a strong headwind, buggered if there is.

I can ignore his last two runs- well all his runs on soft can be ignored but it’s typical of MJ to just keep running them. He travelled strongly at York for a long way but didn’t pick up in the ground, but it was better than the bare result. He also went well at Haydock – too short a trip, too soft, stayed on – beaten by x2 3YOs, one of whom is ultra progressive from a mark in low 90s. Not bad form.

So, he should be the one they have to pass. He has the class, mark, track position (if i’ve read it right/the other jockeys play ball), he stays, gallops and likes a scrap. SDS is also riding the best he has all season, confidence up, a superb last 14 days.  14/1 looked big

… of the rest…

Well, all of that above may not matter a jot if Alfaatik runs his race again, builds on LTO and stays. I think he should stay. But he’s a monkey, I genuinely believe connections don’t know what version of himself will turn up and apparently the gelding op hasn’t improved his behaviour at home. I can hope he wakes up and doesn’t fancy it today, or bounces. And he does have to prove he stays. That last race is solid form though. He’s the right fav but not one i’d want to back at that price, and one I want to take on. Maybe he’ll overhaul me late for an honourable 2nd.

The rest are so so at the prices for me. It has an open feel if the fav does bomb, or maybe even if he doesn’t. Sleeping Lion won this last year so has an obvious chance I suppose, although that was a much weaker renewal on paper I think. Still, this has probably been the plan, 5s may be fair. Volcanic Sky could be in the grip of the capper, maybe. He has a class question in sense he’s yet to win at C2, but maybe this is his ideal trip having not got home LTO in a decent race. He should look dangerous at some point, but a question as to whether the handicapper may have him now, 10lb above his win two starts back. Debatable. Varian’s and Sir Michael’s just have a few questions for me at the price, and I can leave. Although both yards are red hot. I thought the other two look up against it but, not completely. It has an open/odd feel to me, esp if the fav is goes rogue.

So, Hochfeld at 14s will do. Fingers crossed he runs his race – you never know with MJs, which I think is simply down to how often they run them. He’s won from quick returns before, but at the price I can’t use that fear as a reason to leave. Hopefully he leads, dictates, stacks them up, breather, kick/launch down the straight and they never quite get to him.

GL with any bets, as always. Back with Saturday’s post soon.

Josh

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

10 Comments

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  • A good Thursday with winners at 10/1 and 17/2. A nice result.

    Two for Friday at Doncaster:

    1.40, Sleeping Lion – drops back in trip but is a course and distance winner, trainer form OK, Spencer can come from off the pace, perhaps it has been laid out for this race? 1 point each way if 8 runners but 2 points win if less.
    2.40, Perotto – back down to 5F, up in class again though, can go with the pace, draw OK, worth a go at the odds. 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 10/09/20 9:12 PM Reply


  • Day off for me today to rest the eyes ready for tomorrow

    Good luck everyone with your selections.

    Warren Bottomley 11/09/20 9:36 AM Reply


  • Today’s ITV7, Just for fun.
    Chiefofchiefs @ 7/1 – 14.10 Doncaster
    Dubai Honour @ 17/2 – 14.20 Chester
    Dubai Mirage @ 3/1 – 14.30 Sandown
    Ubettabelieveit @ 16/1 – 14.40 Doncaster
    Mutazawwed @ 15/2 – 14.55 Chester
    Red Verdon @ 15/2
    Laneqash @ 11/2 – 15.45 Doncaster
    small singles and a 11p accum for 250,000

    martin whittle 11/09/20 9:49 AM Reply


    • get in got 40-1 bog on Ubetterbelieveit £2 ew and £2 win @55.0 on exchange , i think i might have been due a biggie 🙂

      martin whittle 11/09/20 2:47 PM Reply


  • Tomorrow’s post is up for the puzzle solvers among you… usual content plus pointers/trends etc for a couple of Donny handicaps… hopefully the winners mentioned somewhere and some of us can land on the right ones!

    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2020/09/11/freetips-58/

    Josh

    Josh 11/09/20 11:24 AM Reply


  • Today’s EW Bets:
    110 Frankels Storm (2p)
    210 Shabaaby
    230 Campari
    240 Frenetic
    305 Cardsharp
    335 Lapidary
    345 Thank You Next
    405 The Met
    510 Natural History
    530 You Don’t Own Me
    540 Pacino
    705 The Rocket Park

    Chris 11/09/20 12:16 PM Reply


    • My selection in the 140, well it was y’day, is Hochfeld.

      Chris 11/09/20 12:26 PM Reply


    • Firstly, I’d like to apologise for not tipping Mere Anarchy @ 100/1.It had my name all over it! 🙂
      So today’s poor results are:-
      5 losers
      2nd 17/2, L, L, W3-1, L, 2ND5/1, L, 3RD 13/2

      Chris 11/09/20 7:22 PM Reply


  • FOOTBALL!

    It’s that time of year again, a free 22/1 trixie from my good friend Paul Ruffy who does very well with his low risk footy betting to small stakes (5/10s).

    You can find this free trixie in today’s email for those interested, repeated here>>> https://bit.ly/2DNSSEO

    Josh

    Josh 11/09/20 12:19 PM Reply


  • Think today might be the day for Eagles By Day. Bred to get the trip, will like the ground, has a touch of class and will be suited by the likely ordinary pace. Looks good value at around 11/2.

    Tony Linnett 11/09/20 2:02 PM Reply


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