Members Daily Post: 10/09/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

5. Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(148 tips/19 wins/52 places (inc wins) /+50.1 points, advised/ +45.4 Betfair SP)

#1 – 1.30 Hayd – Ugo Gregory – 1 point win – 11/1 (bet365) 9/1 (888/BV/BetF) 3rd, -1

#2 – 1.40 Donc – Ventura Diamond – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) UP (5th), -1

#3 – 3.45 Donc – Black Caspian – 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365/WH/BV/BetF) UP, -1

x3 as of 08.03, that’s all for today, write ups at bottom inc ‘danger’ horses etc 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.00 Hayd – Miracle Eagle (9/1<) 33/1 ‘DNQ’ 2nd 33/1

1.30 Hayd – Dream Together (9/1<) H1 9/2 2nd

2.30 Hayd – Tacitly (any) 9/4 UP

4.40 Hayd – Isola Bella May  (9/1<) 17/2

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Straight Track Specialists 

1.40 Donc – Sky Angel (any, 5/1< best) 13/2 UP

 

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

None.

 

5. Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

1.30 Hayd – Ugo Gregory (1st run) 9/1 3rd

 

6.Other/Updates

Doncaster Day 2

TJC Qualifiers (from research post HERE>>>)

2.10 Donc – Zabeel Queen 6/4 UP

3.15 Donc – Believe In Love 6/4

 

Handicap Pointers

1.40 

Trainers (to have won race in last 12 renewals, with runners)

  • Ventura Diamond H4/ Credible H4/ Samara Bay
  • Spright H1 WON 9/1>10/1 
  • Golden Melody
  • Tattoo
  • Ocean Eyes

3.45 

I couldn’t find any trends of interest/note, so just the following…

Trainers (to have won race in last 12 renewals, with runners)

  • Jumaira Bay H4  UP
  • Black Caspian UP
  • Milltown Star UP
  • National League 3rd 25/1

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Tips write ups…

I’ve decided to go back to basics on the staking front and for the rest of the flat season everything will be 1 point win only. I’ll stop faffing around with these 1.5-2 points and EW bets which I should just give up on, never getting them right. No doubt a couple of today’s will finish 2nd/3rd but that’s the game and the majority don’t place. I find landing on the right one hard enough, without deliberating staking. A ‘systematic’ tick box that triggers stake X is probably required, but I don’t do that as yet. Otherwise it’s ‘gut’ , partial head, finger in the air nonsense. 

Ugo Gregory

This 4yo will win more soft ground sprint handicaps and with any luck this is one of them. He needs cut in the ground and I fancied him LTO. He didn’t run too badly, beaten 2 1/2 lengths, hanging to his right for some reason and possibly into the worst of the ground. When looking back through his form it wouldn’t be the first time he’s struggled on a track with a climb to the line though and all his best form has been on flat tracks – 2/7,4p in handicaps, 0/6,1p with any undulations. This is his trip, he’s got course experience having gone well for a long way here over 8f. There’s a niggle that they’ve reached for the blinkers this season but he has been responding to pressure.

He’s well handicapped now and has form in better races than this – much of the same reasoning as LTO, needing cut in the ground to show his best. He’s off 61 here and has been dropped 7lb this season. Well done team, legitimate handicapping that we can all spot (deep/hotter races, wrong ground, courses he may not act best on etc) .  His return at Ripon in a better race than this was good, that Newmarket running on effort in a C4, on far from ideal ground (GF), was decent – My Style won that race, beating him 3 1/4L, and he’s since won a deep enough Ascot sprint handicap. If that was soft he’d have been closer in that, and nothing in here has matched that sort of form, not this season anyway. Nor his close 4th at Nottingham last October. A C3, series finale, 17 runners, running on in heavy, beaten 1 1/2 L, off 68. His two career wins came that season, hacking up off 58 eased down, and 64, also easily. 9s seemed big to my eyes.

He’s also the right side of the draw I think. There is no pace on paper in stalls 1-8 and that low side could get left behind. He’s got his stablemate, Gullane One, to take his side along from stall 11. (he could run a big race at a big price, if getting back to the form of his 1st runs. He’s won from slightly higher marks but I think his stablemate has more in hand – RR has ridden for last 5 races so prob nothing in jockey bookings. Could outrun his odds) With any luck David just tracks him. But Dream Together(stall 14) and Bring the Money (13) like to be up there also. A repeat of those Ripon and Newmarket efforts this season, and building on them with the softer ground/weaker oppo, should see him go very very close to winning this. Well, I think he’d be the one to beat.

Of the rest… well if I fail hopefully Dream Together wins for the stats – I thought 9/2 at the time wasn’t overly generous – mainly as soft, and Haydock soft at that (although drying out/could be sticky) is a complete unknown. This may not be a stiff enough test either, with staying on wins at Ponte – and those Thirsk/Donny runs pose a few questions, in the context of price. This could be hard work. IF he handles conditions I do think he could still have a few pounds in hand though.

Bring The Money has a ground and stamina (combined) question for me – well, he has to prove he fully stays and the yard have been quiet enough – although he’s a LTO winner 17 days ago so that may mean little. Still, some questions, in the context of price. And his form is only so so.

Viva Voce may hack up again. 4s for a hold up sort, inexperienced, seemed only ok to do so. He didn’t beat anything of note LTO in a weak race. He couldn’t have done it easier but the selections best form is way ahead-  he has to repeat it of course. Still, he’s open to stack of improvement and may well take this – but I was happy to take on.

 Society Queen is being backed and I can see why – she would be chucked in from this mark and did run well LTO, when no gaps appeared – she does have stamina to prove in soft but enough signs could be fine/improve for it, and Hanagan is at Haydock rather than Donny, which is interesting given Fahey’s runners there – his rides could be worth a glance. She could give me some headaches. She can be slow away/held up, and I’ll hope she is again! And also inconvenienced by being drawn lower.

ALL eyes now on big Mick Easterby (who’s hopefully backed Ugo!) given he had his 1st winner of the season a few days ago (typically in a race I played in), smashed off the boards, winning hard held in a handicap on first run for an age. They’ve clearly had issues, or been running them into fitness out from the fields. Who knows, but he’d have plenty who handle cut i suspect and could have a productive autumn. And they can fly in at prices. I’ll keep an eye on Vardon Flyer, who needs more but has shown ability.

However Ugo was the one for me, really should be going close here if running his race. 9s seemed way too big.

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Ventura Diamond 

I shouldn’t play in nurseries too often but as I bothered to look at the trainer records I thought I should look through them in depth – this one stood out at 10s. I can’t work out how she’s that price. Fahey is 2/10,5p in the race, so knows whats needed – he did have two others in this, now only one, with Credible. Could be worth a look but of his three this one looked the stand out.

I thought on what they’ve all done to date, she has the best form by quite some way. Obviously they’re 2 year olds and open to stacks of improvement. She’s a fine stamp of a filly, should appreciate this bigger field and possibly the pace (although that’s open to question as there isn’t loads of it – Spright low, hopefully Buick is aggressive on his to tow the highs along), having failed to settle in a relative dawdle at Newmarket – although that was a 3rd run in no time at all, given a short break since.

Anyway, back to her form… the 4th at Sandown, 5f, drawn wide, outpaced, stayed on – that’s working out well… 7/21, 9p since (inc one for her). Miss Jingles won that, winning a C2 conditions race comfortably next time. Zoetic was second for rookie James Ferguson (although his dad’s experience/contacts probably help, you still have to do it though, prob even more pressure)  and she’s since 2/2, inc a listed race. The 3rd hasn’t done much, but another 4 separate winners in behind. So, deep. Next time out at Goodwood she won well over 6f, beating Illykato of Channons, who then hacked up in a Windsor maiden and came a running on 4th in that Salisbury G3, won by Happy Romance, beaten under 3L. Solid. In 4th that day was Beckett’s horse, Meu Amor. She maybe needed it/the experience, and won NTO,  but she’s 4/1 in this race today, and Ventura was 10s – that disparity seemed a bit odd to me. That Newmarket effort was ok, in a C2 handicap, beaten 3L. She did pull early and it was a 3rd quick run. Still, she split two horses there who’ve both won comfortably since.

I do think a mark of 80 could look rather lenient at some point. Provided she settles, I think she’ll be powering home over this 6 1/2f. Maybe she didn’t quite see out Newmarket’s 7f also.

I can rarely work out Fahey jockey bookings and as noted, Hanagan is up at Haydock. In any case BM is having a very good few weeks, riding at the top of his game, and hopefully he settles her and delivers to perfection.

Of the rest…

Well one of the top 3 may well take this but I didn’t think they were value to do so. There’s Sky Angel for the straight track duo of Buick/Appleby angle above, but she needs more from somewhere I thought. I could leave the other two – 4s always seems short in most big field handicaps for me and certainly a Festival nursery.

Of the other biggies… Eve J-H is 1/3,2p in this race, taking last years renewal. That makes Tattoo of potential saver interest at 11s. She does need much more – this is no Wolvs C5 maiden, and she does look on the small side visually. But Georgia’s 5lb is a gift and she could run a big race.

I wasn’t sold on much else but it is one of those races. I’ve no doubt Ventura Diamond has been aimed at this race by connections, given Fahey’s record, and Middlam Park had one go very close in yesterday’s 2YO contest. In any case, whatever she does, from what I can see on paper 10s seemed generous to me.

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Black Caspian

Hopefully one of the two above has gone in by now but in any case I couldn’t work out why this one was 14s. That just looked all wrong for a yard that’s 1/6,2p in this race. Maybe those York formlines won’t be the ones to follow in this race (‘Brunch’ form, tieing in Jumaira Bay and Eastern World, who was just behind the selection LTO, 9/2 plays 14s). The selection is tough, he tries, battles and I thought this 7f may be ideal. He went hard up front over 8f LTO in that deep York handicap and was still leading 150 yards out, having fought off a few challengers, before then fading/outstayed by others. The fact Brunch came from the back may indicate how hard they went and maybe that effort can be marked up.

Pace/race position was one of the reasons I had to have a go. If there’s still yesterday’s cross headwind I won’t be so confident but he’s the only out and out front runner in this, and he’s drawn up against this nearside rail. Buick may push, or sit a bit as his was keen LTO, and AA could be able to dictate. He wont’ be done for stamina over this trip and if he could get ahead, he will keep rolling. There’s more to come from him off 84 and this isn’t as deep as that race LTO, on paper at least. He doesn’t seem to like firm in the ground – that could be an excuse for his run two starts back although it was still solid, but maybe didn’t put down. He’s prob prefer some cut but  i won’t use ‘good’ as an excuse, not at the price/his form.

I’m expecting a monster run and I suppose with 4 places around with plenty of books he was ripe for EW punting but I can’t get those right often enough and I can’t be doing 1/2 EWs, however painful the drawdowns can be. I’ll live with it. They’ll probably all place today knowing my current luck!

The dangers…

So, he could be battling out with Buicks, who has a chance but looks short enough, and has questions. Like the fav, he’s in 1st CP. Hmm. Jumaira Bay is obviously solid but these stalls are stand side again and there isn’t much hard pace drawn that side. They could merge into one group I suppose but he may have to challenge on the far side and may not have much to take him into it. We shall see. He’s solid and has finished ahead of the selection. But he can hang under pressure and maybe isn’t straight forward. Again, 1st CP for him. Hopefully he hates them, pulls, hangs, game over. Or they do the trick. His maiden win was impressive LTO, esp as the 2nd is well regarded and bolted up on his next start also. He is the right fav, but at 4s i’ll take on.

The rest can beat me really.

Broughtons Gold needs more, that recent win only so so form (beat Ivory’s horse who I backed at Ascot, who may still be running)

Persuasion is interesting simply because Frankie is on, and Gosden has one in this that he’s not on. Strange, although he hasn’t ridden that one at all. Hills is in form and he was/is clearly well regarded given the races they’ve run in- Frankie may try and dictate from there. But, he still has questions. Maybe he’s the most interesting/unknown of the bigger ones.

I should mention National League – forever eye-catching given how he’s run the last twice, finding trouble when looking to be full of running. There’s something about his head carriage that niggles at me, and maybe he hasn’t been quick or brave enough to take the gaps. He can be slow away, keen a bit, hence held up – he will need luck. He does look well handicapped, whether up to the form of some of these, or likes battling as much, is the question. But I suppose another interesting outsider.

Milltown Star has more races in him but I just couldn’t see enough to suggest a mark of 100 was lenient – both on RPRs and the level of his form/what he’s beaten/what they’ve done etc. The French listed race he won was weak, but Channon is 2/5,3p in the race and Lee has been riding this track well this year, 4/20. He has drifted from 12s and hopefully that’s a sign. He may not appreciate the drying ground either, and is open to attack from something with more in hand.

The rest have plenty of questions also.

Anyway, I’ll stick with Black Caspian to make all up the rail at 14s. Jumaira staying on, but not quite getting there!

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That’s the lot for today, GL with any bets

Josh

 

 

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19 Comments

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  • A 7/2 winner and a loser on Wednesday.

    Two for Thursday at Doncaster:

    1.40, Spright – the extra half a furlong should be a bonus, handicap debut, won in this class, go from the front, draw OK. 1 point each way.
    2.40, Line Of Departure – the form of his last run boosted by Ataser on Wednesday, trainer in form, draw OK. 1 point each way.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 09/09/20 8:59 PM Reply


    • thanks for putting up Sprite Martin, reminded me what a good run that was at York and had a few quid on 🙂

      martin whittle 10/09/20 1:52 PM Reply


    • Great tip with Spright Martin, made all.

      Steve Goodall 10/09/20 1:53 PM Reply


    • well done Martin.Absolutely cracking winner

      Allan 10/09/20 1:53 PM Reply


    • Line of Departure wins as well ! Thanks Martin, much appreciated.

      Steve Goodall 10/09/20 2:54 PM Reply


    • 2 great picks well done 🙂

      Warren Bottomley 10/09/20 2:58 PM Reply


    • Great stuff Martin, well done. Your persistence has deserved a big bang day, and there it is. That should make the seasons tally look rather good now, and no doubt ahead of plan. Superb.

      Josh 10/09/20 2:59 PM Reply


    • Well done Martin on a good day hope you had the double!
      Cheers
      Colin

      cleafe 10/09/20 4:06 PM Reply


  • Comments on today’s tips:
    Ugo returns to a flat track today having run over undulations this season (York run in July, higher grade, was OK)
    Ventura came into season during/after her last run; works well says trainer.
    BC seems to need 8F to me. Trainer form now iffy.

    Chris 10/09/20 10:14 AM Reply


    • Yep, as per above Ugo’s best form has been on flat tracks, and hopefully that’s an excuse for the Hamilton run, although it wasn’t too bad. He hasn’t done overly well at Carlisle before either. We shall see

      Where did you find out about Ventura being in season etc? Is that in Fahey’s blog? I thought after Hannon yesterday i’d avoid such blogs today haha.

      Black C – you may be right about the trip – I thought he’s shown plenty of pace, in a race lacking it, and he was still leading 7.5f out LTO, before fading – maybe that was from going hard enough also. I’m hoping this may be ideal, esp if at his pace AA can have him up there, he should keep going.
      I disagree about the trainer form, certainly at the price – Ryan hasn’t really been ‘hot’ at any point this season and his place % of 33% or so has been consistent for last 30 days at least… his last 4 runners have inc a winner and a decent place yesterday. If 2 of those 10 placed horses in last 14 days go in, his win% is the up to his historical average. 10 of his last 20 runners have been sent of 20s+, a few 33s, 50s, 100s – not exactly expected to go overly well, although on the headline stats 46% below market expectations last 14 days. Admittedly you’d like any trainer to be ‘hotter’ but at 14s I didn’t think enough there to put me off with how I look at them. We shall see.

      i’ll take one just one of them winning! Market suggesting Fahey’s may give me plenty to do in the 1.30. But if he has a quickfire double with the 1.40, I won’t mind too much!

      GL
      Josh

      Josh 10/09/20 10:51 AM Reply


      • I know some of the owners so you can be sure it is accurate. Paddy Mathers couldn’t explain why she disappointed lto but the trainer soon found out the next morning.
        She’s had a little ‘freshen up’ since. Still seen as a difficult race though, but hopeful….
        Wise to avoid the Hannon fluff, imo; bluff Junior always talks them up, but real hopes tomorrow – perhaps…!

        Chris 10/09/20 11:35 AM Reply


        • Ha, agreed with Hannon – I never look before initial deliberations but his words made me more bullish than I clearly should have been.

          Oh I wasn’t questioning the validity but yep couldn’t see in public domain anywhere – that would explain the market weakness, suggest she looked upset pre race, and ran pulled first 2/3f. Easy to forgive that at 10s. She should run a big race, we will see if good enough.
          GL

          Josh 10/09/20 11:41 AM Reply


          • Ventura drawn on the wrong side but beat the other high drawn runners, I’m told.

            Chris 10/09/20 3:00 PM Reply


            • Yep, ran well enough, no complaints – that pace set up was predictable/concern, although I didn’t think winner would get ahead/have as easy a time, got that wrong. Was hoping Buick may have gone forward but low was well ahead after 1-2F really – not sure why I was dismissive of her given positives, not even a sodding mention in dispatches, same as with your 1.30 winner (well done). Alas. Anyway, Fahey’s has run well, more pace would have been ideal – I do wonder if a strongly run 6f may be as far as she wants, or drop back down – she did hold a position/travel well, then took a little while to pick up. They should get more wins out of her.

              Josh 10/09/20 3:16 PM Reply


  • yesterdays c3+ list had 2 win and 9 placed which included the 1 win and 3 placed on the aw which i track separately also.
    my picks. the losing streak continues but at odds im playing thats to be exspected.
    todays c3+ video replay list.
    DONCASTER
    13:40 sky angel / tattoo / meu amor / credible
    14:10 geat vibes / indigo girl / star of emaraaty
    14:40 yazaman / dark lion / digital / cairn island
    15:15 monica sheriff / believe in love / dubious affair
    15:45 happy bere / haqeeqy / persuasion
    16:15 gunmetal / breanski / fresh
    CHELMSFORD
    19:30 breathless times / thegreatestshowman
    my picks
    STAR OF EMARAAATY 10/1 has been running well and progressing nicely all season culminating in a group 3 race last time at 66/1. she’s not that price today but at 10/1 for a horse we may not of seen the best of yet i think she is good value today
    HAPPY BERE 50/1 E/W speculative one this but had some decent form last year in France in group company and has ran well in Qatar this year. if he shows anything like the group form over in France today i dont think he will be far away.

    as always good luck today 🙂

    warren bottomley 10/09/20 11:23 AM Reply


  • Unlike Josh, two winners today would satisfy me!
    EW bets:
    130 Commanche Falls
    150 Hungry For Fashion
    210 Star of Emaraaty
    240 Yazaman
    315 Vivionn (2p)
    325 Requinto Dawn
    335 Baasem (2p)
    345 Persuasion
    355 Vape
    405 Mustaqbal
    415 Bernardo O’Reilly
    440 Custard The Dragon
    630 Taste The Nectar
    800 Great Hall

    Chris 10/09/20 11:52 AM Reply


    • Got the start I wanted – C Falls wins 12/1

      Chris 10/09/20 1:38 PM Reply


      • ..and the second with Bernado! 22/1!!

        Chris 10/09/20 4:23 PM Reply


    • Full results in time order:
      W12/1, L, 2ND 7/2, 2ND 6/1, 2ND (aargh!) 12/1, 4 losers, W22/1, 3RD 22/1, 3RD 10/1, L.

      Anonymous 11/09/20 4:00 PM Reply


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