2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
3.Other Micro Angles
4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)
5. Horses to Follow
The Flat 2020
(148 tips/19 wins/52 places (inc wins) /+50.1 points, advised/ +45.4 Betfair SP)
#1 – 3.15 Donc – Cloak Of Spirits– 2 points win – 5/1 (bet365/WH) 9/2 (gen) UP, -2
#2 – 3.45 Donc – Dubai Horizon – 1 point EW – 25/1 (1/5, 4p, gen) UP, -2
#3 – 1.40 Donc – Power Station – 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365/Lad) 12/1 (gen) UP -1
That’s all for today, x3, x5 points, #1/2 as of 08.04, #3 as of 08.52, write ups at bottom of post… don’t forget to refresh the page to see any new content/comments etc
2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
3.45 Donc – Mayfair Spirit (14/1< guide) 16/1 ‘DNQ’ UP
3.45 Donc – Hypothetical (9/1<) 8/1 UP
3.45 Donc – Dubai Horizon (10/1<) 25/1 ‘DNQ’ UP
3.45 Donc – Strait Of Hormuz (9/1<) 13/2 WON 13/2 > 6/1
4.15 Donc – Shoot To Kill (8/1<) 15/2 UP… unlucky there… ran much better than I thought he would..slow away, but appeared to relish being held up off a strong pace, rather than gunned from front- was coming with a monster run when nearly brought down, game over. He’d had been bang there I suspect. Could well have a modest straight track handicap in him on that evidence, not that he’s been the most reliable at times.
3.Other Micro Angles
3.15 Donc – Cloak of Spirits 9/2 UP
1.40 Donc – Power Station (10/1< guide) H4 12/1 UP
Jim Crowley (any odds)
1.40 Donc – Mayaas H2 4/1 UP
Jack Mitchell (10/1< best)
5.10 Wolvs – Bilandy H4 12/1 UP
6.15 Wolvs – Have To Have 10/1 2nd
7.45 Wolvs – Capla Huntress (x2 angles) H1 11/10 WON 11/10>Evens
4.15 Donc – Primos Comet 10/1 2nd
4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps)
5. Horses to Follow
2.10 Donc – Tarboosh (2nd run) 8/1 WON 8/1
3.45 Donc – Caradoc (2nd run) 11/2 3rd
Doncaster Day 1
TJC Qualifiers (from research post HERE>>>)
Trainers (to have won race with runners)
- 1.40 Donc – Gumdrop H3 3rd
Trainers (to have won race with runners)
- Derevo H3 2nd
- Fox Power UP
Looking at those that were aged 3-5, top 3 at least once last three runs and had 0-4 career wins leaves 12/12, 12/56 runners, 24p.. and leaves four…
Derevo H3 2nd / Hypothetical / Strait Of Hormuz WON / Fox Power
That’s all for Day 1 pointers. Hopefully they’re of some use to you.
Tips write ups…
I’ve been lured in at 12s and with any luck the step back up to 7f, better ground (should be drying out all day if the forecast is right, certainly not much soft, whether it’s ‘sticky’ we shall see, but i’ve worked on it being good, easy side). He hits the trainer/sires angle above and has shaped on all three runs as if he’s getting the hang of things. He was eye-catching at Sandown when never really put into it but he made decent late headway, to suggest ability. At Lingfield he was keen enough under Thore Hammer-Hansen who struggled to settle him and may have made too much use of him, also possibly in the wrong part of the track. But he ran ok, and the two in front of him would win their next starts, Lost In Space taking a C3 off 82. He was then pitched into that very deep sales race at York, won by the stablemate who’s now a group filly. He was well beaten but in softer than ideal ground he never looked happy. And over that trip, at the pace they went, he was outpaced from flag fall really. He did well to stick on and was doing his best work late. That race was packed with 2YOs already rated in the mid 80s+ (the 2nd 107) and was much stronger than this. But experience of that big field hustle and bustle may do him the world of good. His RPR of 82 there gives hope a mark of 77 is workable, and at some point you’d expect him to leave that behind.
Rossa rode him LTO and Levey has yet to, so I won’t over think those jockey bookings although I always assume Levey has the choice but it’s hard to know sometimes. Hannon is 3/14,6p in C2 handicaps here in the last 2 years, 1/5,3p in nurseries.
Quote from Hannon’s Unibet blog…
“He didn’t disgrace himself by any means at York last time behind Happy Romance who has since made that form look even stronger by winning the Dick Poole at Salisbury last week, but that’s irrelevant. I did like the way this colt stayed on at the finish so the extra furlong here will definitely suit and he’s been in good form at home. If the rain stays away I think he has a decent chance.”
Of the rest…well, it is a nursery and i’m not sure i’d want a short price in a race like this. LTO winners are ‘only’ 1/40, 11p in this so the 4 of those obviously need more- although hard to see a LTO win as a neg in a race like this, but I suppose they’re open to attack from something with potentially more in hand at this early stage of their careers. Clearly I wont’ be falling off my seat in shock if one of the top 3 wins and a couple of those appear above. But i’ll roll the dice at the biggie. 12s seems a bit overpriced to me.
There isn’t much pace on paper in this which adds another dimension to the contest. Mine can race prominently and hopefully Rossa settles him. He may appreciate what could be a more serene gallop than LTO to help him get into a rhythm.
Cloak Of Spirits…
A rare 2 pointer but the more I looked the more confident I became. Apologies to connections 🙂 Well, I liked her before reading Hannon’s quote but the revelation of her homework, which he wouldn’t always highlight, made me wade in with an extra 1/2…
“I still maintain she’s a very high-class filly and she ran extremely well over in France last time under the circumstances and we pulled her out of Goodwood because of the ground so hopefully it will dry out nicely for her because she’s in great form at home and put in a particularly good piece of work on Friday. She’s got a lot of natural speed so the drop back down a furlong won’t be an issue at all and fancy her to run a huge race.”
I just thought this was hers for the taking really and the drop back to 7f could be right up her street – she does have pace, which is evident when watching back her races, she races up there (should sit handy, in the right spot), has placed/run well in G1s (only Jubiloso has done that in their careers to date) and if AA can kick in the final 2 furlongs, I think the rest could be in big trouble.
Her run in the 1000G was obviously good, beaten by Love into 2nd there. Solid. The 6th/7th/8th/9th have won since. It was an ok renewal (well, obviously Love, but take her out and maybe it’s not vintage, but still solid) and she led for a long way, showing her customary zip. As she did in the G1 Coronation stakes – she cruised through that and swung into the straight on the bit. Maybe the front two had gone hard enough, but again that stiff 8f with some soft in the going, at G1 pace, looked to have caught her out, fading in the final furlong. Still, decent 110/114+ horses in that. None of those today. At Epsom she again ran a cracker, but outstayed to my eyes, the front two well clear. Rose of Kildare 3rd, she’d win a G3 on her next start. Her run in France LTO at Deauville in a G3 was solid, in heavy which she wouldn’t have liked, over 8f and racing wide for the most part – again she hit the front deep into that, fading into 3rd in the last 150 yards.
She just has no excuses for me today. On ratings she’s the second best filly in here and this looks like the weakest race she’s contested this season to me.
The dangers… well Althiqa is the one I fear most. She was just ahead of the selection in France but she does shape like a stayer and I’m not sure her form before that is up to the level of Cloak Of Spirits. But she’s solid and has some class, the yard again remaining in form through the season. Of the bigger priced ones, Roger Varian’s Invitational could run a big race, having blown the start LTO and travelled well for a long way at Ascot over 8f (although that race not working out great). She could be thereabouts though,.
I didn’t like the rest for various reasons and thought they needs more, from somewhere. Maybe that French trip will knock it out of both of those above, and then it would be open. Jubiloso, another 85 days off, after a lacklustre return, has too many questions for me at what was 9/2. But she’s a touch of class if getting back to her best. The rest look like Listed performers at best and I think you’ll need much more today, although being 3YO fillies (generally, a few older) of course big steps forward are possible.
Still, I think Cloak is the one to beat in these conditions and i’ll hope she can put them to the sword. I thought on all known form and with this drop back in trip, she should be 7/2 fav or so in this lineup. Whether the money comes, time will tell.
If this one goes off at 25s then I won’t be expecting too much in truth. I do think the market will be some sort of guide.
I’ll start with the trainer… his string are going well, 2/18, 11p in the last 14 days. They also do well at Doncaster, 22/64, 35p, +17 here in the last 5 years. That improves to 8/27, 12p in handicaps, 4/11, 6p +12 over 10f, 3/11, 4p in all class 2 handicaps. William is 2/7,3p on his horses in the last year. So, some solid ‘foundation stats’. Like most trainers these days he can ready one if he wants to, and that won’t be an excuse.
Saeed’s quote in the RP would give some hope that he won’t be tailed off/he’s fit…
“He’s had a break but has been working nicely on the Limekilns and we are hoping for a good run.”
The horse… he is 6 (and that age has won this before) and is lightly enough raced for his age in handicaps, certainly in the UK. Really I’m wanting him to rediscover his July/Sept 2018 form which is very solid, especially the Sandown win. A repeat of that, and he does place here imo, at the very least. Of course whether he does that given recent form is the question. He’s clearly had the odd issue, 373 days off from Sept 18 to Sept 19. 1 ok run in the Cambridgeshire (very deep renewal) before another break and a trip to Meydan for the first part of 2020. He ran a couple of ok races there, inc in a G3. He did hit a high of OR 107, now back down to 100. He does have a touch of handicapping class, at his best.
His two runs this season have been mediocre. I thought he went well for a long way at Ascot before blowing up/or the stamina ebbing away in a strongly run 1m6f around Ascot. His run LTO wasn’t great either, but he was keen enough, marooned up the middle of the track, in soft – while I don’t think he wants it quick (and Meydan may have been fast enough for him) I’m not sure he wants it proper testing either. There should be no excuse today.
They’ve freshened him up again, and I found it interesting they remove the headgear. He didn’t wear any for his Ayr/Sandown wins, and has worn it ever since. He may enjoy it being removed, or he never travels a yard! He does carry his head high but I do think he tries.
I also thought from his low draw, William may be more aggressive – well, over what could be his ideal trip at a galloping track, I thought he’d have him handy, as per Ascot, as he does have pace.
I was also a bit ‘meh’ as to all those at the top of the market. And when I put all that together, 1/5, 4p at 25/1 – well I couldn’t resist. I just hope there’s some money for him, as Saeed doesn’t have many biggies hit the board.
Of the rest…
well one of the top 5/6 in the market may take this but I thought they all had various questions to answer, in the context of price, and I could leave. It does feel open to me.
Starcat – there should be more to come but he’s drawn 14 and is usually held up – he should need a fair bit of luck here for a 9/2 shot. 41 days off and a 1st TT, and that Goodwood race was only ‘ok’. They clearly like him though (pitched into the 2000G) and the yard are in form. He’s unexposed. I can see why there’s money, but still, he looks short enough now and isn’t unbeatable. Derevo has questions also for a 11/2 shot – I haven’t been that convinced by his runs this season (soft maybe the excuse LTO though) and he could want further. Another unexposed though and maybe a slow burner from the master of slow burners, SMS, who remains in fine form. Caradoc has questions for an 11/2 shot after LTO but I suppose you can forgive any horse a poor run – but at that price, in a C2? He’s looking a bit tripless and is turning into a cliff horse for many. The Epsom run suggested he has a race in him this season, but York was a tad underwhelming where this moron had a go at 6s – 6s? In that race, for a hold up horse and not one who’d bolted up LTO. Tut.
Straight of Hormuz WON interested me and obviously a few Trainer Profiles horses in this. Again, price. 6s didn’t feel generous – he was beaten in a C3 LTO and the runners are subsequently 0/10,1p. His Ascot run was a tad underwhelming also – it was slowly run and he stayed on to some degree. Still, he does need more, but is 3 and has nothing on his back and AA in the plate. He rides this track very well. Maybe of those at the top of the market he was the one I feared most. He is unexposed over 10f. His Haydock return is what sparked interest. He may well have been sharper than the rest then, but he beat Angel Power, Lucander, Brunch, Canagat there – they’ve all won decent races since. That makes me think he should have more to come from 88, but his last two runs then pose a question. Anyway, it’s price. Maybe he’ll make 6s look just fine, it’s always a tricky price point for me in these races. Were he 8s/10s, I may well have waded in properly.
I thought Hypothetical has plenty of questions now for an 8s shot, even though its the dream team. He is unexposed and may appreciate this ground better. The 83 days off suggests a hold up/issue though and he does have questions. That Kempton return decent, given how the form has worked out. But he can be keen and may lack the experience for this. Or Frankie cruises into it 1f out, looking around for dangers. That’s not impossible but not enough there for me at 8s but again given his profile/connections, I can see why some would be tempted.
I thought the capper may have Data Protection now- or in any case something has more in hand – but he’s in form and will likely run his race. The Fellowe’s yard is still quiet and this is the deepest race Mayfair Spirit has run in – he needs more I thought.
Anyway, I could go on. Knowing my luck I haven’t mentioned the winner! I thought this felt open to me, and it was worth chancing one at a price.
Dubai could win this, comfortably place, or find little/tail off 3f out. At 25s I’ll roll the dice and hope for a place at worst, which would be a solid +4 point return.
GL with any bets