Members Daily Post: 09/09/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

5. Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Updated:  Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(148 tips/19 wins/52 places (inc wins) /+50.1 points, advised/ +45.4 Betfair SP)

#1 – 3.15 Donc – Cloak Of Spirits2 points win – 5/1 (bet365/WH) 9/2 (gen) UP, -2

#2 – 3.45 Donc – Dubai Horizon – 1 point EW – 25/1 (1/5, 4p, gen) UP, -2

#3 – 1.40 Donc – Power Station – 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365/Lad) 12/1 (gen) UP -1

That’s all for today, x3, x5 points, #1/2 as of 08.04, #3 as of 08.52, write ups at bottom of post… don’t forget to refresh the page to see any new content/comments etc

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.45 Donc – Mayfair Spirit (14/1< guide) 16/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

3.45 Donc – Hypothetical (9/1<) 8/1 UP

3.45 Donc – Dubai Horizon (10/1<) 25/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

3.45 Donc – Strait Of Hormuz (9/1<) 13/2 WON 13/2 > 6/1 

4.15 Donc – Shoot To Kill (8/1<) 15/2 UP… unlucky there… ran much better than I thought he would..slow away, but appeared to relish being held up off a strong pace, rather than gunned from front- was coming with a monster run when nearly brought down, game over. He’d had been bang there I suspect. Could well have a modest straight track handicap in him on that evidence, not that he’s been the most reliable at times. 

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Breeding/Sires

3.15 Donc – Cloak of Spirits 9/2 UP

Trainer/Sires

1.40 Donc – Power Station (10/1< guide) H4 12/1 UP

Jim Crowley (any odds)

1.40 Donc – Mayaas H2 4/1 UP

Jack Mitchell (10/1< best)

5.10 Wolvs – Bilandy H4  12/1 UP

6.15 Wolvs – Have To Have 10/1 2nd

7.45 Wolvs – Capla Huntress (x2 angles) H1 11/10 WON 11/10>Evens

Kevin Stott 

4.15 Donc – Primos Comet 10/1 2nd

 

4.Monthly Trainers (Jumps) 

None.

 

5. Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

2.10 Donc – Tarboosh (2nd run) 8/1 WON 8/1 

3.45 Donc – Caradoc (2nd run) 11/2 3rd

 

6.Other/Updates

 

Doncaster Day 1 

TJC Qualifiers (from research post HERE>>>)

None.

Handicap Pointers

1.40 

Trainers (to have won race with runners)

  • 1.40 Donc – Gumdrop H3 3rd

3.45 

Trainers (to have won race with runners)

  • Derevo H3 2nd 
  • Fox Power UP

Trends

12/102, 31p

Looking at those that were aged 3-5, top 3 at least once last three runs and had 0-4 career wins leaves 12/12, 12/56 runners, 24p.. and leaves four…

Derevo H3  2nd / Hypothetical / Strait Of Hormuz WON / Fox Power 

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That’s all for Day 1 pointers. Hopefully they’re of some use to you.

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Tips write ups…

Power Station… 

I’ve been lured in at 12s and with any luck the step back up to 7f, better ground (should be drying out all day if the forecast is right, certainly not much soft, whether it’s ‘sticky’ we shall see, but i’ve worked on it being good, easy side). He hits the trainer/sires angle above and has shaped on all three runs as if he’s getting the hang of things. He was eye-catching at Sandown when never really put into it but he made decent late headway, to suggest ability. At Lingfield he was keen enough under Thore Hammer-Hansen who struggled to settle him and may have made too much use of him, also possibly in the wrong part of the track. But he ran ok, and the two in front of him would win their next starts, Lost In Space taking a C3 off 82. He was then pitched into that very deep sales race at York, won by the stablemate who’s now a group filly. He was well beaten but in softer than ideal ground he never looked happy. And over that trip, at the pace they went, he was outpaced from flag fall really. He did well to stick on and was doing his best work late. That race was packed with 2YOs already rated in the mid 80s+ (the 2nd 107) and was much stronger than this. But experience of that big field hustle and bustle may do him the world of good. His RPR of 82 there gives hope a mark of 77 is workable, and at some point you’d expect him to leave that behind.

Rossa rode him LTO and Levey has yet to, so I won’t over think those jockey bookings although I always assume Levey has the choice but it’s hard to know sometimes. Hannon is 3/14,6p in C2 handicaps here in the last 2 years, 1/5,3p in nurseries.

Quote from Hannon’s Unibet blog…

“He didn’t disgrace himself by any means at York last time behind Happy Romance who has since made that form look even stronger by winning the Dick Poole at Salisbury last week, but that’s irrelevant. I did like the way this colt stayed on at the finish so the extra furlong here will definitely suit and he’s been in good form at home. If the rain stays away I think he has a decent chance.”

Of the rest…well, it is a nursery and i’m not sure i’d want a short price in a race like this. LTO winners are ‘only’ 1/40, 11p in this so the 4 of those obviously need more-  although hard to see a LTO win as a neg in a race like this, but I suppose they’re open to attack from something with potentially more in hand at this early stage of their careers. Clearly I wont’ be falling off my seat in shock if one of the top 3 wins and a couple of those appear above. But i’ll roll the dice at the biggie. 12s seems a bit overpriced to me.

There isn’t much pace on paper in this which adds another dimension to the contest. Mine can race prominently and hopefully Rossa settles him. He may appreciate what could be a more serene gallop than LTO to help him get into a rhythm.

Cloak Of Spirits…

A rare 2 pointer but the more I looked the more confident I became. Apologies to connections 🙂 Well, I liked her before reading Hannon’s quote but the revelation of her homework, which he wouldn’t always highlight, made me wade in with an extra 1/2…

“I still maintain she’s a very high-class filly and she ran extremely well over in France last time under the circumstances and we pulled her out of Goodwood because of the ground so hopefully it will dry out nicely for her because she’s in great form at home and put in a particularly good piece of work on Friday. She’s got a lot of natural speed so the drop back down a furlong won’t be an issue at all and fancy her to run a huge race.”

I just thought this was hers for the taking really and the drop back to 7f could be right up her street – she does have pace, which is evident when watching back her races, she races up there (should sit handy, in the right spot), has placed/run well in G1s (only Jubiloso has done that in their careers to date) and if AA can kick in the final 2 furlongs, I think the rest could be in big trouble.

Her run in the 1000G was obviously good, beaten by Love into 2nd there. Solid. The 6th/7th/8th/9th have won since. It was an ok renewal (well, obviously Love, but take her out and maybe it’s not vintage, but still solid) and she led for a long way, showing her customary zip. As she did in the G1 Coronation stakes – she cruised through that and swung into the straight on the bit. Maybe the front two had gone hard enough, but again that stiff 8f with some soft in the going, at G1 pace, looked to have caught her out, fading in the final furlong. Still, decent 110/114+ horses in that. None of those today. At Epsom she again ran a cracker, but outstayed to my eyes, the front two well clear. Rose of Kildare 3rd, she’d win a G3 on her next start. Her run in France LTO at Deauville in a G3 was solid, in heavy which she wouldn’t have liked, over 8f and racing wide for the most part – again she hit the front deep into that, fading into 3rd in the last 150 yards.

She just has no excuses for me today. On ratings she’s the second best filly in here and this looks like the weakest race she’s contested this season to me.

The dangers… well Althiqa  is the one I fear most. She was just ahead of the selection in France but she does shape like a stayer and I’m not sure her form before that is up to the level of Cloak Of Spirits. But she’s solid and has some class, the yard again remaining in form through the season. Of the bigger priced ones, Roger Varian’s Invitational could run a big race, having blown the start LTO and travelled well for a long way at Ascot over 8f (although that race not working out great). She could be thereabouts though,.

I didn’t like the rest for various reasons and thought they needs more, from somewhere. Maybe that French trip will knock it out of both of those above, and then it would be open. Jubiloso, another 85 days off, after a lacklustre return, has too many questions for me at what was 9/2. But she’s a touch of class if getting back to her best. The rest look like Listed performers at best and I think you’ll need much more today, although being 3YO fillies (generally, a few older) of course big steps forward are possible.

Still, I think Cloak is the one to beat in these conditions and i’ll hope she can put them to the sword. I thought on all known form and with this drop back in trip, she should be 7/2 fav or so in this lineup. Whether the money comes, time will tell.

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Dubai Horizon…

If this one goes off at 25s then I won’t be expecting too much in truth. I do think the market will be some sort of guide.

I’ll start with the trainer… his string are going well, 2/18, 11p in the last 14 days. They also do well at Doncaster, 22/64, 35p, +17 here in the last 5 years. That improves to 8/27, 12p in handicaps, 4/11, 6p +12 over 10f, 3/11, 4p in all class 2 handicaps. William is 2/7,3p on his horses in the last year. So, some solid ‘foundation stats’.  Like most trainers these days he can ready one if he wants to, and that won’t be an excuse.

Saeed’s quote in the RP would give some hope that he won’t be tailed off/he’s fit…

“He’s had a break but has been working nicely on the Limekilns and we are hoping for a good run.”

The horse… he is 6 (and that age has won this before) and is lightly enough raced for his age in handicaps, certainly in the UK. Really I’m wanting him to rediscover his July/Sept 2018 form which is very solid, especially the Sandown win. A repeat of that, and he does place here imo, at the very least. Of course whether he does that given recent form is the question. He’s clearly had the odd issue, 373 days off from Sept 18 to Sept 19. 1 ok run in the Cambridgeshire (very deep renewal) before another break and a trip to Meydan for the first part of 2020. He ran a couple of ok races there, inc in a G3. He did hit a high of OR 107, now back down to 100. He does have a touch of handicapping class, at his best.

His two runs this season have been mediocre. I thought he went well for a long way at Ascot before blowing up/or the stamina ebbing away in a strongly run 1m6f around Ascot. His run LTO wasn’t great either, but he was keen enough, marooned up the middle of the track, in soft – while I don’t think he wants it quick (and Meydan may have been fast enough for him) I’m not sure he wants it proper testing either. There should be no excuse today.

They’ve freshened him up again, and I found it interesting they remove the headgear. He didn’t wear any for his Ayr/Sandown wins, and has worn it ever since. He may enjoy it being removed, or he never travels a yard! He does carry his head high but I do think he tries.

I also thought from his low draw, William may be more aggressive – well, over what could be his ideal trip at a galloping track, I thought he’d have him handy, as per Ascot, as he does have pace.

I was also a bit ‘meh’ as to all those at the top of the market. And when I put all that together, 1/5, 4p at 25/1 – well I couldn’t resist. I just hope there’s some money for him, as Saeed doesn’t have many biggies hit the board.

Of the rest…

well one of the top 5/6 in the market may take this but I thought they all had various questions to answer, in the context of price, and I could leave. It does feel open to me.

Starcat – there should be more to come but he’s drawn 14 and is usually held up – he should need a fair bit of luck here for a 9/2 shot. 41 days off and a 1st TT, and that Goodwood race was only ‘ok’. They clearly like him though (pitched into the 2000G) and the yard are in form. He’s unexposed. I can see why there’s money, but still, he looks short enough now and isn’t unbeatable. Derevo has questions also for a 11/2 shot – I haven’t been that convinced by his runs this season (soft maybe the excuse LTO though) and he could want further. Another unexposed though and maybe a slow burner from the master of slow burners, SMS, who remains in fine form. Caradoc has questions for an 11/2 shot after LTO but I suppose you can forgive any horse a poor run – but at that price, in a C2? He’s looking a bit tripless and is turning into a cliff horse for many. The Epsom run suggested he has a race in him this season, but York was a tad underwhelming where this moron had a go at 6s – 6s? In that race, for a hold up horse and not one who’d bolted up LTO. Tut.

Straight of Hormuz WON interested me and obviously a few Trainer Profiles horses in this. Again, price. 6s didn’t feel generous – he was beaten in a C3 LTO and the runners are subsequently 0/10,1p. His Ascot run was a tad underwhelming also – it was slowly run and he stayed on to some degree. Still, he does need more, but is 3 and has nothing on his back and AA in the plate. He rides this track very well. Maybe of those at the top of the market he was the one I feared most. He is unexposed over 10f. His Haydock return is what sparked interest. He may well have been sharper than the rest then, but he beat Angel Power, Lucander, Brunch, Canagat there – they’ve all won decent races since. That makes me think he should have more to come from 88, but his last two runs then pose a question. Anyway, it’s price. Maybe he’ll make 6s look just fine, it’s always a tricky price point for me in these races. Were he 8s/10s, I may well have waded in properly.

I thought Hypothetical has plenty of questions now for an 8s shot, even though its the dream team. He is unexposed and may appreciate this ground better. The 83 days off suggests a hold up/issue though and he does have questions. That Kempton return decent, given how the form has worked out. But he can be keen and may lack the experience for this. Or Frankie cruises into it 1f out, looking around for dangers. That’s not impossible but not enough there for me at 8s but again given his profile/connections, I can see why some would be tempted.

I thought the capper may have Data Protection now- or in any case something has more in hand – but he’s in form and will likely run his race. The Fellowe’s yard is still quiet and this is the deepest race Mayfair Spirit has run in  – he needs more I thought.

Anyway, I could go on. Knowing my luck I haven’t mentioned the winner! I thought this felt open to me, and it was worth chancing one at a price.

Dubai could win this, comfortably place, or find little/tail off 3f out. At 25s I’ll roll the dice and hope for a place at worst, which would be a solid +4 point return.

GL with any bets

Josh

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

13 Comments

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  • A 2/1 >6/5 winner and a loser on Tuesday.

    Two win bets for Wednesday at Doncaster:

    1.40, Ataser – won in this class, trainer in decent form, won at distance, draw OK, 5LB claimer on board (unsure as to whether this is good or bad in this race?). 2 points win.

    2.10, Moss Gill – beaten three lengths by Battaash last time out, course and distance winner, won in this class, draw OK. 2 points win.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 08/09/20 8:38 PM Reply


  • yesterdays c3+ list had 2 winners and 3 places from 4 races
    my pick waterloo sunset finished last
    todays c3+ video replay list
    KEMPTON AW
    13:55 omnivega / win o’clock
    14:25 dark spectre / zhui feng / impatient

    DONCASTER
    13:10 last generation / side shot / saligo bay
    13:40 al watan / party game / gumdrop
    14:10 country carnival / moss gill / acklam express
    15:15 cloak of spirits / lyzbeth / althiqa / bounce the blues
    15:45 derevo / hypothetical / sky defender
    my picks
    COUNTRY CARNIVAL E/W 25/1 getting stacks of weight from everything in the race 2yr old that could be open to improvement has listed race form. speculative but worth a punt in my opinion.
    LYTHBETH 16/1 won a listed race back in June at Goodwood finished 6th last time out but was a mile away from the front runners and came from way off the pace to finish in the position she did. a more prominent ride could see her up there today.
    HYPOTHETICAL 8/1 didn’t like the ground last time out but finished 4th behind pyledriver who has since won the great Voltigeur and is entered for the st leger and the ark on only his second start after 173 day break. unexposed and open to improvement with solid form i think 8/1 is generous.

    good luck today with your selections 🙂

    warren bottomley 09/09/20 1:54 AM Reply


  • no time to give my twisted logic but here’s my nutty ew L15 for today
    2-10. Wise Words 28-1
    2-40. Robero 50-1
    3-15. Lyzbeth 18-1
    3-45. Dubai Horizon 25-1

    martin whittle 09/09/20 4:05 AM Reply


  • Just a note on the great ‘which one do I choose ‘ debate between GG’s and HRB. The ability to download excel files is a massive plus for me, pretty sure GG’s doesn’t have any of that but has some funky pace tools and other great stuff with whistles and bells on.

    Chris Albin 09/09/20 10:18 AM Reply


    • I think you can download into Excel from the Query tool. But if you’re a systems/stats/research type punter, I suspect HRB may be the best starting place. If you’re more subjective/race analysis then i’d say try GG but whatever your ‘winner finding’ drive, one of those should suit i’d have thought.
      Josh

      Josh 09/09/20 10:43 AM Reply


  • 3.45D I could back 4 in this race and still not get the winner. So, Fun bets only.

    I’ve halved the field by taking out anything over over 4yrs old. ( 2012 last horse to win over that age. 12 have tried since)
    Nothing over 10/1 has won in 15yrs.
    Class move is interesting. you have to go back to 2007 to find the last class mover to win this race.

    That leaves THREE.
    Derevo, For a horse who likes to track the pace. He was knocked sideways leaving the stall LTO which left him near the back. Stoute won this last year.

    Starcat. Thought good enough to run in the guineas. A decent effort from a bad draw at Goodwood. LTO Now they know he stays 10F. Not a good ride from Murphy in my opinion. Beaten 2.5L (Most likely winner)

    Hypothetical. stuck in the mud LTO has been given plenty time to get over it.
    Gosden handicappers have done well in the last 10yrs here at the St leger meeting. 7 from 19 is 37%.
    although not so good lately. (1 from last 6)

    I’ve backed STARCAT and I’ve had a 50P Combination tricast with bet365. (£3) pays between £83 and £98.

    compound dave 09/09/20 11:48 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, was just wondering if there any races that you draw a line through when looking at the cards?

    I have been thinking of ditching the Class 6 / Class 5 stuff. Some recent results have been so strange and horses that are tailed off last few runs in the same conditions are winning next time. I know its the nature of lower class races and there is still value to be had if of a forgiving nature to recent form. I’ve had a few nice priced winners but also some chronic losing runs where I’m left scratching my head afterwards.

    I think for me it is probably best to concentrate on the better races, although less profitable there also seems to be less variance.

    George Mathers 09/09/20 12:06 PM Reply


    • Hi George,

      In years gone by I think i’ve had too much of a straight jacket on with race types/ approach, which I suppose is why this flat season i’ve tried to mainly just focus on my content as a ‘way in’ and not care for the race-type too much – although 95%+ are in handicaps. It’s been going ok obviously but the season isn’t yet over and i’m having another tricky spell… my general point there is that i’ve tried to keep an open mind through the season…

      I think there’s is good reason to chop out certain classes, maybe distances, or even races restricted to age X – simply in terms of cutting out the number of races you look at.

      Class is tricky – I think last flat season or the season before maybe I tried focusing on 5f-6f sprint handicaps, all levels – well, that did my head in after a time and wasn’t for me! (aware some people specialise in them to great success, and at lower level)

      You could certainly consider chopping off C6 to start with. I don’t play at that level too often – in general horses are at that level for a reason, because they’re slow and have issues / can be inconsistent / whether they run well can very much be in their mind – which is hard to predict. Obviously there’s some skulduggery that goes on at all levels, and maybe more at lower, but not enough to impact on our likely success or not/not an excuse.

      I do think at the lower levels that more things we cannot measure/get a grip on impact a horse’s performance, including the horse themselves – and trainers will try plenty at home to spark them into life, and that’s something we don’t know. 1st headgear is a nightmare, generally avoided as too unpredictable – the stats general tell you that etc. But little tweaks can mean a horse jumps forward and leaves a run behind.

      So, yep, I’d consider chopping off C6.

      C5 i’d be more cautious, more so if you’ve got a horse you like/tracking maybe. I’ve had the odd winner at that level, generally been there and done it types, proven winners, back down to winning marks etc and recent signs of promise, maybe doing something different today (track/draw/jockey/class drop/ground /distance etc) 4YO+, to avoid the properly unexposed 3YOs

      But, you could just try focusing on C4+. It does give you less to focus on and will give some more down time every now and then, which the brain needs in this game.

      But, i’m still to find the key to avoiding chronic losing runs! Obviously when you flip to the higher classes, esp the C2 handicaps, they can become so competitive/big fields- that has it’s pros, but also cons – time/ energy and naturally losing runs may be much worse as it’s hard to get those right – but they do pay in time, if you can get through the trudge – esp when the buggers keep placing!

      Whatever level I play at I have tried more to see if the fav is weak/worth taking on, and look at top 2/3 more – as obviously if you think you can get those beat/they’ve questions to answer, you’re automatically creating value elsewhere.

      I would generally leave maiden/novice races – too much guesswork for me and i’m not a breeding/bloodline expert. But some are/that’s what they enjoy. I try and avoid hold up horses, outside of big field, straight track cavalry charges, which is the main scenario where I will be more forgiving/may be preferred.
      You’ve got the options of looking for well drawn early pace, esp at tracks/CD with bends/where they come up quick etc.

      But, I may get to the end of this flat season end Sept, early/mid Oct, before I switch the tipping mind to jumps, and need to have re-think!!

      Josh

      Josh 09/09/20 12:39 PM Reply


    • Hi george.
      I can second your thoughts I quite regularly post a through the card when I have time and while you can pick up some nice priced winners in the lower class races. You can be left scratching your head also. In my limited experience for me it seems the higher class the better. I had a couple of decent priced winners over the last few weeks and they have all been listed races or above. I just think the form is more constant and actually easier to find the better value punts. I’m dabbling into the aw over the winter months but already from what I’ve done I might drop class 5 and 6 and just concentrate on the class 4 and above. My own figures suggest this is my best approach. But if you have the time which unfortunately I don’t always there are winners to be had down at the bottom.
      But they are not my main focus anymore.
      But everyone has there own niche. So if your getting the winners and making a profit then it’s right for you.

      Warren bottomley 09/09/20 12:46 PM Reply


  • Hi Guys,
    Been following all your posts with interests but not really betting at mo other than a small stks acca until the mudlarks come to the fore. Still sticking to my bubble and had my first pint since 7th March last Friday at a small family funeral. I was actually shaking picking up the glass ffs.

    Warren’s doing particularly well recently so I’ll be keeping an eye on the winter AW with a view to a punt.

    My acca’s are returning more than I anticipated being as I’m not putting a lot of thought into them but thought I’d put them up for perusal. No doubt the first few will now bomb lol.
    K 2.25 – Impatient, appears to relish the place
    U 3.35 – Elysees, no need for reasoning here
    U 4.10 – Monys Award, hit the ground running and maybe more to come
    W 7.15 – Perfect Arch, well bred and Josie no slouch.
    GL

    Titus 09/09/20 12:32 PM Reply


    • Should have said multi’s and not acca’s, so £1 yankee today

      Titus 09/09/20 12:36 PM Reply


  • EW bets:
    225 Flaming Spear
    240 Courtside
    335 Elysees
    345 Sky Defender
    400 Leos Luckyman
    405 Limaro Prospect
    410 Portway Flyer
    415 Teruntum Star
    440 Gavlar
    510 Bilandy
    715 Htilominlo (3pl)

    Chris 09/09/20 12:40 PM Reply


    • Well, just the ten unplaced losers and one winner, Limaro Prospect, at an extraordinary price, 16/1!
      Quite how many people could want to lay that horse – from a major stable in a very weak race – is beyond my ken.

      Chris 10/09/20 12:35 AM Reply


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